As February marches on, we take a look (at an increasing rate) at the current state of the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball tournament based on our rankings model. Our rankings model takes into account: wins, win disparity, location of game, length of rest between games, distance traveled, and a couple other factors. The ranking is then placed into a percentage of points scored by each opponent; along with a probability of winning. Each coefficient respective of these two categories are then weighted together to form a single normalized score.

As we have seen over the course of the season, our rankings model is fairly on par with the rankings systems used by ESPN, the Associated Press, and the Coaches’ Poll. We also tend to magnify teams that are “over-rated” and tend to identify teams that are roughly “under-rated.”

In this edition (and others afterwards until the NCAA tournament) we will focus on who is in, who is out, and who is on the “Bubble”.

March Madness Current Entrants:

Using the current games played, the locations of the games, and the disparity of scores, we are able to build out a current state of the 2016 March Madness Tournament.

Rules: In order to make the tournament, a team must win their conference tournament, win the Ivy League regular season, or become an “at-large” bid that is selected based on merit by an NCAA committee.

In this post, we give an updated rankings for all 351 NCAA Division I teams. But first, we identify the current teams on pace (projected by our models) for becoming conference champions and “at-large” bids.

It should be noted that our rankings will include the suspended Southern Methodist University, whereas the AP Top 25 Coaches’ Poll does not include the Mustangs. Also, in recent light of team discipline, Louisville has also been disqualified from the post-season.

Fitting our models, we find that there is a 0.5703 r-squared, indicating an “O.K. but no-where predictive” fit to the games played. Using the rankings as determination for conference winners, we have the following teams with automatic bids:

1. America East: Stony Brook (21-4, 12-0)
2. American: Connecticut (17-7, 7-4)
3. Atlantic 10: Dayton (20-3, 10-1)
4. Atlantic Coast: Virginia (20-4, 9-3)
5. Atlantic Sun: North Florida (18-9, 7-3)
6. Big 12: Oklahoma (20-3, 8-3)
7. Big East: Villanova (21-3, 11-1)
8. Big Sky: Weber State (16-7, 8-2)
9. Big South: UNC Asheville (17-8, 10-3)
10. Big Ten: Iowa (19-4, 10-1)
11. Big West: Hawaii (18-3, 7-1)
12. Colonial Athletic: William and Mary (17-7, 9-4)
13. Conference USA: UAB (20-4, 10-1)
14. Horizon League: Valparaiso (20-4, 10-1)
15. Ivy League: Yale (15-5, 6-0)
16. Metro Atlantic: Monmouth (20-5, 12-2)
17. Mid-American: Akron (19-4, 8-2)
18. Mid-Eastern: Hampton (14-9, 9-2)
19. Missouri Valley: Wichita State (18-6, 12-1)
20. Mountain West: San Diego State (18-7, 11-1)
21. Northeast: Wagner (15-9, 8-5)
22. Ohio Valley: Belmont (18-8, 10-2)
23. Pac-12: Oregon (20-4, 9-2)
24. Patriot League: Navy (17-9, 8-5)
25. Southeastern: South Carolina (21-3, 8-3)
26. Southern: Chattanooga (22-3, 11-1)
27. Southland: Texas A&M Corpus Christi (18-5, 9-2)
28. Southwestern Athletic: Southern (16-8, 8-3)
29. Summit League: South Dakota State (19-6, 8-3)
30. Sun Belt: Arkansas Little Rock (21-2, 11-1)
31. West Coast: St. Mary’s (19-3, 10-2)
32. Western Athletic: Grand Canyon (21-4, 7-2)

The remaining 36 “at-large” teams are then the top 36 teams in our rankings. These 36 teams are given as:

1. Xavier (21-3, 9-3)
2. Kansas (20-4, 8-3)
3. Maryland (22-3, 10-2)
4. West Virginia (19-5, 8-3)
5. Michigan State (20-5, 7-5)
6. Miami (FL) (19-4, 8-3)
7. North Carolina (20-4, 9-2)
8. Purdue (20-5, 8-4)
9. Iowa State (17-7, 6-5)
10. Baylor (18-6, 7-4)
11. Texas (16-8, 7-4)
12. Texas A&M (18-6, 7-4)
13. USC (18-5, 7-3)
14. Duke (18-6, 7-4)
15. Arizona (19-5, 7-4)
16. Utah (18-7, 7-5)
17. Notre Dame (17-7, 8-4)
18. Kentucky (18-6, 8-3)
19. Michigan (17-7, 7-4)
20. St. Joseph’s (20-4, 9-2)
21. Seton Hall (17-7, 7-5)
22. Butler (17-7, 6-6)
23. Pittsburgh (17-6, 6-5)
24. Colorado (17-7, 6-5)
25. Indiana (19-5, 8-2)
26. Florida (16-8, 7-4)
27. Florida State (16-8, 6-6)
28. Providence (18-7, 6-6)
29. Syracuse (17-8, 7-5)
30. Texas Tech (14-9, 4-7)
31. Kansas State (14-10, 3-8)
32. Cincinnati (18-7, 8-4)
33. Oregon State (14-8, 5-6)
34. California (15-8, 5-5)
35. George Washington (18-6, 7-4)
36. Vanderbilt (14-10, 6-5)

DROPPED OUT: Washington (15-9, 7-5)

SNEAKED IN: Vanderbilt (14-10, 6-5)

The next set of teams are our current bubble teams. These are teams that are close to making the NCAA Tournament but are on the outside looking in.

1. Washington (15-9, 7-5)
2. Creighton (16-9, 7-5)
3. Wisconsin (15-9, 7-4)
4. VCU (17-7, 9-2)
5. Gonzaga (19-5, 11-2)
6. Alabama (14-9, 5-6)
7. Marquette (16-9, 5-7)
8. Tulsa (16-8, 8-4)
9. Clemson (14-10, 7-5)
10. Stanford (11-10, 4-6)

FLOATED OUT OF BUBBLE: UCLA (13-10, 4-6), Georgia (13-9, 6-5), LSU (15-9, 8-3)

CLIMBED INTO BUBBLE: Alabama (14-9, 5-6), Marquette (16-9, 7-5), Tulsa (16-8, 8-4)

On the Bubble List, you see that there are changes to 30% of the teams. This is due to the closeness of the slightly-above average stronger conference teams. The term stronger conference is used here to reflect the dominance of the power conference and high mid-major conferences over the mid-major conferences. To give insight, the resulting ranking score between Vanderbilt (IN) and Washington (OUT) is 0.72367 to 0.72355. A whopping 0.00012 points; with a variance of approximately 0.00001 each.

The current state of the NCAA Tournament is given as follows:

We note that we are not predicting the field of 68, but rather giving seedings based on play up to today. Our goal is to populate the March Madness tournament with current seedings; to give indication of where teams are sitting as of today. As the conference games continue to play out, the field of 68 will become much clearer.

Rank	Team	Score	Record	MM Position
1	Villanova	1.00000	21-3 (11-1)	Big East
2	Oklahoma	0.96190	20-3 (8-3)	Big 12
3	Xavier	0.92430	21-3 (9-3)	At Large
4	Kansas	0.91895	20-4 (8-3)	At Large
5	Iowa	0.90933	19-4 (10-1)	Big Ten
6	Maryland	0.90373	22-3 (10-2)	At Large
7	Virginia	0.89715	20-4 (9-3)	ACC
8	West Virginia	0.88786	19-5 (8-3)	At Large
9	SMU	0.87692	20-3 (9-3)	DQ
10	Michigan St	0.87227	20-5 (7-5)	At Large
11	Dayton	0.86724	20-3 (10-1)	Atlantic 10
12	Oregon	0.86679	20-4 (9-2)	Pac 12
13	Miami FL	0.86296	19-4 (8-3)	At Large
14	North Carolina	0.86194	20-4 (9-2)	At Large
15	Purdue	0.85211	20-5 (8-4)	At Large
16	Iowa St	0.84120	17-7 (6-5)	At Large
17	Baylor	0.82845	18-6 (7-4)	At Large
18	Louisville	0.82722	19-5 (8-3)	DQ
19	South Carolina	0.82091	21-3 (8-3)	SEC
20	Texas	0.81295	16-8 (7-4)	At Large
21	Texas A&M	0.80596	18-6 (7-4)	At Large
22	USC	0.80582	18-5 (7-3)	At Large
23	Duke	0.80324	18-6 (7-4)	At Large
24	Arizona	0.80298	19-5 (7-4)	At Large
25	Utah	0.79959	18-7 (7-5)	At Large
26	Notre Dame	0.78573	17-7 (8-4)	At Large
27	Kentucky	0.78276	18-6 (8-3)	At Large
28	Michigan	0.78105	18-7 (8-4)	At Large
29	St Joseph’s PA	0.78080	20-4 (9-2)	At Large
30	Seton Hall	0.77860	17-7 (7-5)	At Large
31	Butler	0.77571	17-7 (6-6)	At Large
32	Pittsburgh	0.77559	17-6 (6-5)	At Large
33	Colorado	0.76797	17-7 (6-5)	At Large
34	Indiana	0.76364	19-5 (9-2)	At Large
35	Florida	0.76356	16-8 (7-4)	At Large
36	Florida St	0.76349	16-8 (6-6)	At Large
37	Providence	0.75914	18-7 (6-6)	At Large
38	Connecticut	0.75687	17-7 (7-4)	American
39	Syracuse	0.75605	17-8 (7-5)	At Large
40	Texas Tech	0.75469	14-9 (4-7)	At Large
41	Kansas St	0.74934	14-10 (3-8)	At Large
42	Ark Little Rock	0.74443	21-2 (11-1)	Sun Belt
43	Cincinnati	0.74293	18-7 (8-4)	At Large
44	Oregon St	0.74172	14-8 (5-6)	At Large
45	California	0.74168	15-8 (5-5)	At Large
46	Wichita St	0.73196	18-6 (12-1)	Missouri Valley
47	G Washington	0.73096	18-6 (7-4)	At Large
48	St Mary’s CA	0.72974	19-3 (10-2)	West Coast
49	Chattanooga	0.72904	22-3 (11-1)	Southern
50	Vanderbilt	0.72367	14-10 (6-5)	At Large
51	Washington	0.72355	15-9 (7-5)	Bubble
52	Creighton	0.72279	16-9 (7-5)	Bubble
53	Wisconsin	0.72049	15-9 (7-4)	Bubble
54	VA Commonwealth	0.71612	17-7 (9-2)	Bubble
55	Gonzaga	0.71269	19-5 (11-2)	Bubble
56	Alabama	0.71185	14-9 (5-6)	Bubble
57	Marquette	0.71091	16-9 (5-7)	Bubble
58	Tulsa	0.70828	16-8 (8-4)	Bubble
59	Clemson	0.70675	14-10 (7-5)	Bubble
60	Stanford	0.70548	11-10 (4-6)	Bubble
61	Hawaii	0.70490	18-3 (7-1)	Big West
62	UCLA	0.69864	13-10 (4-6)
63	Georgia	0.69439	13-9 (6-5)
64	Georgetown	0.69109	14-11 (7-5)
65	San Diego St	0.69026	18-7 (11-1)	Mountain West
66	LSU	0.68955	15-9 (8-3)
67	Monmouth NJ	0.68913	20-5 (12-2)	MAAC
68	St Bonaventure	0.68770	16-6 (8-3)
69	Valparaiso	0.68716	20-4 (10-1)	Horizon League
70	Georgia Tech	0.68563	13-11 (3-8)
71	Houston	0.67041	17-7 (7-5)
72	Ohio St	0.67016	15-10 (7-5)
73	Northwestern	0.66929	16-9 (4-8)
74	Arizona St	0.66544	13-11 (3-8)
75	Virginia Tech	0.66497	13-12 (5-7)
76	Temple	0.66262	15-8 (9-3)
77	William & Mary	0.65925	17-7 (9-4)	Colonial Athletic
78	Akron	0.65915	20-4 (9-2)	Mid-American
79	Mississippi	0.65440	15-9 (5-6)
80	UAB	0.64451	20-4 (10-1)	Conference USA
81	Davidson	0.64314	14-8 (6-5)
82	Evansville	0.64116	19-6 (8-4)
83	NC State	0.63808	12-12 (2-9)
84	Arkansas	0.63763	12-12 (5-6)
85	Wake Forest	0.63008	10-14 (1-11)
86	Tennessee	0.62581	12-12 (5-6)
87	Stony Brook	0.62293	21-4 (12-0)	America East
88	Memphis	0.62275	14-10 (5-6)
89	UC Irvine	0.61888	18-6 (7-1)
90	Nebraska	0.61751	13-12 (5-7)
91	Richmond	0.61676	13-10 (5-6)
92	Yale	0.61633	15-5 (6-0)	Ivy League
93	Grand Canyon	0.61404	21-4 (7-2)	WAC
94	Penn St	0.60830	12-12 (3-8)
95	UNC Wilmington	0.60732	19-5 (11-2)
96	Oklahoma St	0.60692	11-13 (2-9)
97	James Madison	0.60455	19-7 (9-4)
98	Duquesne	0.60416	15-9 (5-6)
99	S Dakota St	0.60080	19-6 (8-3)	Summit League
100	Rhode Island	0.60030	14-10 (6-5)
101	BYU	0.59971
102	TCU	0.59843
103	Illinois	0.59558
104	Boise St	0.59289
105	Princeton	0.58665
106	S Illinois	0.57977
107	Col Charleston	0.57697
108	Hofstra	0.57521
109	Fresno St	0.57398
110	DePaul	0.57359
111	Mercer	0.57158
112	New Mexico	0.56908
113	UNLV	0.56660
114	Oakland	0.56344
115	Long Beach St	0.56225
116	Ohio	0.56207
117	Northern Iowa	0.55863
118	MTSU	0.55815
119	IPFW	0.55707
120	Auburn	0.55560
121	W Kentucky	0.55298
122	Kent	0.54619
123	Mississippi St	0.54323
124	Illinois St	0.54281
125	UT Arlington	0.54059
126	Buffalo	0.53901
127	Belmont	0.53426	18-8 (10-2)	Ohio Valley
128	Nevada	0.53400
129	TAM C. Christi	0.52919	18-5 (9-2)	Southland
130	Santa Barbara	0.52891
131	New Mexico St	0.52785
132	Pepperdine	0.52443
133	SF Austin	0.52083
134	Colorado St	0.51954
135	N Illinois	0.51717
136	Indiana St	0.51689
137	Toledo	0.51528
138	N Dakota St	0.51354
139	Towson	0.51220
140	Elon	0.51103
141	Washington St	0.50637
142	Columbia	0.50637
143	Siena	0.50327
144	Louisiana Tech	0.50205
145	Utah St	0.50151
146	Fordham	0.50116
147	Old Dominion	0.50113
148	NE Omaha	0.50106
149	Missouri	0.50064
150	Albany NY	0.49984
151	WI Milwaukee	0.49909
152	North Florida	0.49838	18-9 (7-3)	Atlantic Sun
153	Tennessee Tech	0.49771
154	Ball St	0.49656
155	Wright St	0.49500
156	Tennessee St	0.49366
157	UCF	0.49351
158	UNC Asheville	0.49132	17-8 (10-3)	Big South
159	Northeastern	0.48987
160	East Carolina	0.48944
161	Georgia St	0.48872
162	ULL	0.48867
163	Iona	0.48361
164	ETSU	0.48302
165	WI Green Bay	0.48173
166	Wyoming	0.47723
167	C Michigan	0.47617
168	CS Bakersfield	0.47493
169	Marshall	0.46813
170	Massachusetts	0.46562
171	Weber St	0.46558	16-7 (8-2)	Big Sky
172	George Mason	0.46464
173	E Michigan	0.46407
174	Morehead St	0.45995
175	Oral Roberts	0.45970
176	Coastal Car	0.45498
177	Minnesota	0.45495
178	Detroit	0.45446
179	Loyola-Chicago	0.45387
180	Montana	0.45111
181	Winthrop	0.44885
182	St Louis	0.44692
183	Missouri St	0.44296
184	Denver	0.43898
185	IUPUI	0.43698
186	FL Gulf Coast	0.43492
187	Murray St	0.43263
188	South Dakota	0.43149
189	Radford	0.43012
190	St John’s	0.43004
191	Fairfield	0.42833
192	Bowling Green	0.42751
193	Air Force	0.42730
194	Furman	0.42519
195	W Michigan	0.42209
196	Navy	0.42198	17-9 (8-5)	Patriot League
197	NJIT	0.41898
198	Boston College	0.41879
199	High Point	0.41743
200	San Francisco	0.41541
201	Vermont	0.41434
202	ULM	0.41045
203	E Kentucky	0.40847
204	Miami OH	0.40443
205	Tulane	0.40328
206	Wagner	0.40040	15-9 (8-5)	Northeast
207	Wofford	0.39746
208	Bucknell	0.39613
209	TN Martin	0.39083
210	Southern Univ	0.39074	16-8 (8-3)	SWAC
211	Gardner Webb	0.39073
212	Portland	0.38887
213	Idaho	0.38823
214	UTEP	0.38819
215	Cal Poly SLO	0.38793
216	North Dakota	0.38527
217	Boston Univ	0.37934
218	Canisius	0.37785
219	Loy Marymount	0.37668
220	Rutgers	0.37569
221	Hampton	0.37369	14-9 (9-2)	MEAC
222	Manhattan	0.37237
223	Charlotte	0.37004
224	E Washington	0.36836
225	Cornell	0.36724
226	S Carolina St	0.36327
227	UC Davis	0.36240
228	N Kentucky	0.35910
229	Arkansas St	0.35854
230	Austin Peay	0.35828
231	Samford	0.35724
232	Army	0.35694
233	Harvard	0.35336
234	New Hampshire	0.35275
235	South Florida	0.35195
236	Norfolk St	0.35133
237	CS Sacramento	0.35062
238	Santa Clara	0.34947
239	E Illinois	0.34751
240	Jacksonville	0.34707
241	Ga Southern	0.34660
242	Florida Intl	0.34337
243	Montana St	0.34254
244	South Alabama	0.34238
245	Houston Bap	0.34233
246	F Dickinson	0.34144
247	La Salle	0.34100
248	Pacific	0.34022
249	Youngstown St	0.34013
250	UC Riverside	0.33954
251	San Jose St	0.33935
252	Seattle	0.33925
253	San Diego	0.33834
254	Colgate	0.33751
255	Rider	0.33524
256	W Illinois	0.33502
257	St Peter’s	0.33263
258	Lehigh	0.32978
259	TX Southern	0.32569
260	CS Northridge	0.32458
261	Jackson St	0.32256
262	Idaho St	0.32065
263	CS Fullerton	0.31695
264	Delaware	0.31554
265	Incarnate Word	0.31378
266	Drake	0.31274
267	Appalachian St	0.31183
268	Drexel	0.31084
269	Missouri KC	0.31060
270	Penn	0.31020
271	Liberty	0.30862
272	St Francis PA	0.30823
273	Cleveland St	0.30663
274	Sam Houston St	0.30654
275	North Texas	0.30085
276	FL Atlantic	0.29781
277	W Carolina	0.29366
278	Southern Miss	0.29321
279	Portland St	0.29305
280	Texas St	0.29234
281	Loyola MD	0.29227
282	UNC Greensboro	0.28640
283	Holy Cross	0.28626
284	Charleston So	0.28626
285	Quinnipiac	0.28543
286	Troy	0.28043
287	Utah Valley	0.28042
288	Citadel	0.27774
289	Brown	0.27447
290	MA Lowell	0.27424
291	Lipscomb	0.27256
292	Kennesaw	0.27194
293	Mt St Mary’s	0.26732
294	Dartmouth	0.26600
295	Long Island	0.26578
296	Rice	0.26325
297	St Francis NY	0.26143
298	Stetson	0.25955
299	N Colorado	0.25948
300	Bradley	0.25622
301	American Univ	0.25132
302	Howard	0.24464
303	Niagara	0.24280
304	Presbyterian	0.23926
305	MD E Shore	0.23647
306	Maine	0.23592
307	Marist	0.23265
308	Longwood	0.22973
309	Alcorn St	0.22809
310	Edwardsville	0.22728
311	Campbell	0.22607
312	Savannah St	0.22336
313	SC Upstate	0.21927
314	Bethune-Cookman	0.21852
315	Sacred Heart	0.21442
316	New Orleans	0.21277
317	UMBC	0.20849
318	NC A&T	0.20193
319	Jacksonville St	0.19843
320	Robert Morris	0.19795
321	Abilene Chr	0.19639
322	Lafayette	0.19579
323	Hartford	0.19530
324	Binghamton	0.19396
325	VMI	0.18728
326	Alabama A&M	0.18693
327	NC Central	0.17786
328	Cent Arkansas	0.16676
329	Bryant	0.15835
330	Southern Utah	0.15489
331	Lamar	0.15273
332	Alabama St	0.14839
333	UT San Antonio	0.14761
334	Nicholls St	0.14675
335	Northern Arizona	0.14653
336	Ark Pine Bluff	0.14546
337	Morgan St	0.13915
338	McNeese St	0.13185
339	Coppin St	0.13030
340	Florida A&M	0.12043
341	Northwestern LA	0.11929
342	UTRGV	0.11591
343	MS Valley St	0.11569
344	IL Chicago	0.11238
345	SE Missouri St	0.10417
346	SE Louisiana	0.09744
347	Grambling	0.07662
348	Central Conn	0.06253
349	Delaware St	0.02928
350	Prairie View	0.02912
351	Chicago St	0.01460