March Madness Bracketology: February 11th Edition

 

As February marches on, we take a look (at an increasing rate) at the current state of the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball tournament based on our rankings model. Our rankings model takes into account: wins, win disparity, location of game, length of rest between games, distance traveled, and a couple other factors. The ranking is then placed into a percentage of points scored by each opponent; along with a probability of winning. Each coefficient respective of these two categories are then weighted together to form a single normalized score.

As we have seen over the course of the season, our rankings model is fairly on par with the rankings systems used by ESPN, the Associated Press, and the Coaches’ Poll. We also tend to magnify teams that are “over-rated” and tend to identify teams that are roughly “under-rated.”

In this edition (and others afterwards until the NCAA tournament) we will focus on who is in, who is out, and who is on the “Bubble”.

March Madness Current Entrants:

Using the current games played, the locations of the games, and the disparity of scores, we are able to build out a current state of the 2016 March Madness Tournament.

Rules: In order to make the tournament, a team must win their conference tournament, win the Ivy League regular season, or become an “at-large” bid that is selected based on merit by an NCAA committee.

In this post, we give an updated rankings for all 351 NCAA Division I teams. But first, we identify the current teams on pace (projected by our models) for becoming conference champions and “at-large” bids.

It should be noted that our rankings will include the suspended Southern Methodist University, whereas the AP Top 25 Coaches’ Poll does not include the Mustangs. Also, in recent light of team discipline, Louisville has also been disqualified from the post-season.

Fitting our models, we find that there is a 0.5703 r-squared, indicating an “O.K. but no-where predictive” fit to the games played. Using the rankings as determination for conference winners, we have the following teams with automatic bids:

  1. America East: Stony Brook (21-4, 12-0)
  2. American: Connecticut (17-7, 7-4)
  3. Atlantic 10: Dayton (20-3, 10-1)
  4. Atlantic Coast: Virginia (20-4, 9-3)
  5. Atlantic Sun: North Florida (18-9, 7-3)
  6. Big 12: Oklahoma (20-3, 8-3)
  7. Big East: Villanova (21-3, 11-1)
  8. Big Sky: Weber State (16-7, 8-2)
  9. Big South: UNC Asheville (17-8, 10-3)
  10. Big Ten: Iowa (19-4, 10-1)
  11. Big West: Hawaii (18-3, 7-1)
  12. Colonial Athletic: William and Mary (17-7, 9-4)
  13. Conference USA: UAB (20-4, 10-1)
  14. Horizon League: Valparaiso (20-4, 10-1)
  15. Ivy League: Yale (15-5, 6-0)
  16. Metro Atlantic: Monmouth (20-5, 12-2)
  17. Mid-American: Akron (19-4, 8-2)
  18. Mid-Eastern: Hampton (14-9, 9-2)
  19. Missouri Valley: Wichita State (18-6, 12-1)
  20. Mountain West: San Diego State (18-7, 11-1)
  21. Northeast: Wagner (15-9, 8-5)
  22. Ohio Valley: Belmont (18-8, 10-2)
  23. Pac-12: Oregon (20-4, 9-2)
  24. Patriot League: Navy (17-9, 8-5)
  25. Southeastern: South Carolina (21-3, 8-3)
  26. Southern: Chattanooga (22-3, 11-1)
  27. Southland: Texas A&M Corpus Christi (18-5, 9-2)
  28. Southwestern Athletic: Southern (16-8, 8-3)
  29. Summit League: South Dakota State (19-6, 8-3)
  30. Sun Belt: Arkansas Little Rock (21-2, 11-1)
  31. West Coast: St. Mary’s (19-3, 10-2)
  32. Western Athletic: Grand Canyon (21-4, 7-2)

The remaining 36 “at-large” teams are then the top 36 teams in our rankings. These 36 teams are given as:

  1. Xavier (21-3, 9-3)
  2. Kansas (20-4, 8-3)
  3. Maryland (22-3, 10-2)
  4. West Virginia (19-5, 8-3)
  5. Michigan State (20-5, 7-5)
  6. Miami (FL) (19-4, 8-3)
  7. North Carolina (20-4, 9-2)
  8. Purdue (20-5, 8-4)
  9. Iowa State (17-7, 6-5)
  10. Baylor (18-6, 7-4)
  11. Texas (16-8, 7-4)
  12. Texas A&M (18-6, 7-4)
  13. USC (18-5, 7-3)
  14. Duke (18-6, 7-4)
  15. Arizona (19-5, 7-4)
  16. Utah (18-7, 7-5)
  17. Notre Dame (17-7, 8-4)
  18. Kentucky (18-6, 8-3)
  19. Michigan (17-7, 7-4)
  20. St. Joseph’s (20-4, 9-2)
  21. Seton Hall (17-7, 7-5)
  22. Butler (17-7, 6-6)
  23. Pittsburgh (17-6, 6-5)
  24. Colorado (17-7, 6-5)
  25. Indiana (19-5, 8-2)
  26. Florida (16-8, 7-4)
  27. Florida State (16-8, 6-6)
  28. Providence (18-7, 6-6)
  29. Syracuse (17-8, 7-5)
  30. Texas Tech (14-9, 4-7)
  31. Kansas State (14-10, 3-8)
  32. Cincinnati (18-7, 8-4)
  33. Oregon State (14-8, 5-6)
  34. California (15-8, 5-5)
  35. George Washington (18-6, 7-4)
  36. Vanderbilt (14-10, 6-5)

DROPPED OUT: Washington (15-9, 7-5)

SNEAKED IN: Vanderbilt (14-10, 6-5)

The next set of teams are our current bubble teams. These are teams that are close to making the NCAA Tournament but are on the outside looking in.

  1. Washington (15-9, 7-5)
  2. Creighton (16-9, 7-5)
  3. Wisconsin (15-9, 7-4)
  4. VCU (17-7, 9-2)
  5. Gonzaga (19-5, 11-2)
  6. Alabama (14-9, 5-6)
  7. Marquette (16-9, 5-7)
  8. Tulsa (16-8, 8-4)
  9. Clemson (14-10, 7-5)
  10. Stanford (11-10, 4-6)

FLOATED OUT OF BUBBLE: UCLA (13-10, 4-6), Georgia (13-9, 6-5), LSU (15-9, 8-3)

CLIMBED INTO BUBBLE: Alabama (14-9, 5-6), Marquette (16-9, 7-5), Tulsa (16-8, 8-4)

On the Bubble List, you see that there are changes to 30% of the teams. This is due to the closeness of the slightly-above average stronger conference teams. The term stronger conference is used here to reflect the dominance of the power conference and high mid-major conferences over the mid-major conferences. To give insight, the resulting ranking score between Vanderbilt (IN) and Washington (OUT) is 0.72367 to 0.72355. A whopping 0.00012 points; with a variance of approximately 0.00001 each.

The current state of the NCAA Tournament is given as follows:

MarchMadnessFebruary11th

NCAA March Madness seedings based on our rankings as of February 11th, 2016.

We note that we are not predicting the field of 68, but rather giving seedings based on play up to today. Our goal is to populate the March Madness tournament with current seedings; to give indication of where teams are sitting as of today. As the conference games continue to play out, the field of 68 will become much clearer.

Rank Team Score Record MM Position
1 Villanova 1.00000 21-3 (11-1) Big East
2 Oklahoma 0.96190 20-3 (8-3) Big 12
3 Xavier 0.92430 21-3 (9-3) At Large
4 Kansas 0.91895 20-4 (8-3) At Large
5 Iowa 0.90933 19-4 (10-1) Big Ten
6 Maryland 0.90373 22-3 (10-2) At Large
7 Virginia 0.89715 20-4 (9-3) ACC
8 West Virginia 0.88786 19-5 (8-3) At Large
9 SMU 0.87692 20-3 (9-3) DQ
10 Michigan St 0.87227 20-5 (7-5) At Large
11 Dayton 0.86724 20-3 (10-1) Atlantic 10
12 Oregon 0.86679 20-4 (9-2) Pac 12
13 Miami FL 0.86296 19-4 (8-3) At Large
14 North Carolina 0.86194 20-4 (9-2) At Large
15 Purdue 0.85211 20-5 (8-4) At Large
16 Iowa St 0.84120 17-7 (6-5) At Large
17 Baylor 0.82845 18-6 (7-4) At Large
18 Louisville 0.82722 19-5 (8-3) DQ
19 South Carolina 0.82091 21-3 (8-3) SEC
20 Texas 0.81295 16-8 (7-4) At Large
21 Texas A&M 0.80596 18-6 (7-4) At Large
22 USC 0.80582 18-5 (7-3) At Large
23 Duke 0.80324 18-6 (7-4) At Large
24 Arizona 0.80298 19-5 (7-4) At Large
25 Utah 0.79959 18-7 (7-5) At Large
26 Notre Dame 0.78573 17-7 (8-4) At Large
27 Kentucky 0.78276 18-6 (8-3) At Large
28 Michigan 0.78105 18-7 (8-4) At Large
29 St Joseph’s PA 0.78080 20-4 (9-2) At Large
30 Seton Hall 0.77860 17-7 (7-5) At Large
31 Butler 0.77571 17-7 (6-6) At Large
32 Pittsburgh 0.77559 17-6 (6-5) At Large
33 Colorado 0.76797 17-7 (6-5) At Large
34 Indiana 0.76364 19-5 (9-2) At Large
35 Florida 0.76356 16-8 (7-4) At Large
36 Florida St 0.76349 16-8 (6-6) At Large
37 Providence 0.75914 18-7 (6-6) At Large
38 Connecticut 0.75687 17-7 (7-4) American
39 Syracuse 0.75605 17-8 (7-5) At Large
40 Texas Tech 0.75469 14-9 (4-7) At Large
41 Kansas St 0.74934 14-10 (3-8) At Large
42 Ark Little Rock 0.74443 21-2 (11-1) Sun Belt
43 Cincinnati 0.74293 18-7 (8-4) At Large
44 Oregon St 0.74172 14-8 (5-6) At Large
45 California 0.74168 15-8 (5-5) At Large
46 Wichita St 0.73196 18-6 (12-1) Missouri Valley
47 G Washington 0.73096 18-6 (7-4) At Large
48 St Mary’s CA 0.72974 19-3 (10-2) West Coast
49 Chattanooga 0.72904 22-3 (11-1) Southern
50 Vanderbilt 0.72367 14-10 (6-5) At Large
51 Washington 0.72355 15-9 (7-5) Bubble
52 Creighton 0.72279 16-9 (7-5) Bubble
53 Wisconsin 0.72049 15-9 (7-4) Bubble
54 VA Commonwealth 0.71612 17-7 (9-2) Bubble
55 Gonzaga 0.71269 19-5 (11-2) Bubble
56 Alabama 0.71185 14-9 (5-6) Bubble
57 Marquette 0.71091 16-9 (5-7) Bubble
58 Tulsa 0.70828 16-8 (8-4) Bubble
59 Clemson 0.70675 14-10 (7-5) Bubble
60 Stanford 0.70548 11-10 (4-6) Bubble
61 Hawaii 0.70490 18-3 (7-1) Big West
62 UCLA 0.69864 13-10 (4-6)
63 Georgia 0.69439 13-9 (6-5)
64 Georgetown 0.69109 14-11 (7-5)
65 San Diego St 0.69026 18-7 (11-1) Mountain West
66 LSU 0.68955 15-9 (8-3)
67 Monmouth NJ 0.68913 20-5 (12-2) MAAC
68 St Bonaventure 0.68770 16-6 (8-3)
69 Valparaiso 0.68716 20-4 (10-1) Horizon League
70 Georgia Tech 0.68563 13-11 (3-8)
71 Houston 0.67041 17-7 (7-5)
72 Ohio St 0.67016 15-10 (7-5)
73 Northwestern 0.66929 16-9 (4-8)
74 Arizona St 0.66544 13-11 (3-8)
75 Virginia Tech 0.66497 13-12 (5-7)
76 Temple 0.66262 15-8 (9-3)
77 William & Mary 0.65925 17-7 (9-4) Colonial Athletic
78 Akron 0.65915 20-4 (9-2) Mid-American
79 Mississippi 0.65440 15-9 (5-6)
80 UAB 0.64451 20-4 (10-1) Conference USA
81 Davidson 0.64314 14-8 (6-5)
82 Evansville 0.64116 19-6 (8-4)
83 NC State 0.63808 12-12 (2-9)
84 Arkansas 0.63763 12-12 (5-6)
85 Wake Forest 0.63008 10-14 (1-11)
86 Tennessee 0.62581 12-12 (5-6)
87 Stony Brook 0.62293 21-4 (12-0) America East
88 Memphis 0.62275 14-10 (5-6)
89 UC Irvine 0.61888 18-6 (7-1)
90 Nebraska 0.61751 13-12 (5-7)
91 Richmond 0.61676 13-10 (5-6)
92 Yale 0.61633 15-5 (6-0) Ivy League
93 Grand Canyon 0.61404 21-4 (7-2) WAC
94 Penn St 0.60830 12-12 (3-8)
95 UNC Wilmington 0.60732 19-5 (11-2)
96 Oklahoma St 0.60692 11-13 (2-9)
97 James Madison 0.60455 19-7 (9-4)
98 Duquesne 0.60416 15-9 (5-6)
99 S Dakota St 0.60080 19-6 (8-3) Summit League
100 Rhode Island 0.60030 14-10 (6-5)
101 BYU 0.59971
102 TCU 0.59843
103 Illinois 0.59558
104 Boise St 0.59289
105 Princeton 0.58665
106 S Illinois 0.57977
107 Col Charleston 0.57697
108 Hofstra 0.57521
109 Fresno St 0.57398
110 DePaul 0.57359
111 Mercer 0.57158
112 New Mexico 0.56908
113 UNLV 0.56660
114 Oakland 0.56344
115 Long Beach St 0.56225
116 Ohio 0.56207
117 Northern Iowa 0.55863
118 MTSU 0.55815
119 IPFW 0.55707
120 Auburn 0.55560
121 W Kentucky 0.55298
122 Kent 0.54619
123 Mississippi St 0.54323
124 Illinois St 0.54281
125 UT Arlington 0.54059
126 Buffalo 0.53901
127 Belmont 0.53426 18-8 (10-2) Ohio Valley
128 Nevada 0.53400
129 TAM C. Christi 0.52919 18-5 (9-2) Southland
130 Santa Barbara 0.52891
131 New Mexico St 0.52785
132 Pepperdine 0.52443
133 SF Austin 0.52083
134 Colorado St 0.51954
135 N Illinois 0.51717
136 Indiana St 0.51689
137 Toledo 0.51528
138 N Dakota St 0.51354
139 Towson 0.51220
140 Elon 0.51103
141 Washington St 0.50637
142 Columbia 0.50637
143 Siena 0.50327
144 Louisiana Tech 0.50205
145 Utah St 0.50151
146 Fordham 0.50116
147 Old Dominion 0.50113
148 NE Omaha 0.50106
149 Missouri 0.50064
150 Albany NY 0.49984
151 WI Milwaukee 0.49909
152 North Florida 0.49838 18-9 (7-3) Atlantic Sun
153 Tennessee Tech 0.49771
154 Ball St 0.49656
155 Wright St 0.49500
156 Tennessee St 0.49366
157 UCF 0.49351
158 UNC Asheville 0.49132 17-8 (10-3) Big South
159 Northeastern 0.48987
160 East Carolina 0.48944
161 Georgia St 0.48872
162 ULL 0.48867
163 Iona 0.48361
164 ETSU 0.48302
165 WI Green Bay 0.48173
166 Wyoming 0.47723
167 C Michigan 0.47617
168 CS Bakersfield 0.47493
169 Marshall 0.46813
170 Massachusetts 0.46562
171 Weber St 0.46558 16-7 (8-2) Big Sky
172 George Mason 0.46464
173 E Michigan 0.46407
174 Morehead St 0.45995
175 Oral Roberts 0.45970
176 Coastal Car 0.45498
177 Minnesota 0.45495
178 Detroit 0.45446
179 Loyola-Chicago 0.45387
180 Montana 0.45111
181 Winthrop 0.44885
182 St Louis 0.44692
183 Missouri St 0.44296
184 Denver 0.43898
185 IUPUI 0.43698
186 FL Gulf Coast 0.43492
187 Murray St 0.43263
188 South Dakota 0.43149
189 Radford 0.43012
190 St John’s 0.43004
191 Fairfield 0.42833
192 Bowling Green 0.42751
193 Air Force 0.42730
194 Furman 0.42519
195 W Michigan 0.42209
196 Navy 0.42198 17-9 (8-5) Patriot League
197 NJIT 0.41898
198 Boston College 0.41879
199 High Point 0.41743
200 San Francisco 0.41541
201 Vermont 0.41434
202 ULM 0.41045
203 E Kentucky 0.40847
204 Miami OH 0.40443
205 Tulane 0.40328
206 Wagner 0.40040 15-9 (8-5) Northeast
207 Wofford 0.39746
208 Bucknell 0.39613
209 TN Martin 0.39083
210 Southern Univ 0.39074 16-8 (8-3) SWAC
211 Gardner Webb 0.39073
212 Portland 0.38887
213 Idaho 0.38823
214 UTEP 0.38819
215 Cal Poly SLO 0.38793
216 North Dakota 0.38527
217 Boston Univ 0.37934
218 Canisius 0.37785
219 Loy Marymount 0.37668
220 Rutgers 0.37569
221 Hampton 0.37369 14-9 (9-2) MEAC
222 Manhattan 0.37237
223 Charlotte 0.37004
224 E Washington 0.36836
225 Cornell 0.36724
226 S Carolina St 0.36327
227 UC Davis 0.36240
228 N Kentucky 0.35910
229 Arkansas St 0.35854
230 Austin Peay 0.35828
231 Samford 0.35724
232 Army 0.35694
233 Harvard 0.35336
234 New Hampshire 0.35275
235 South Florida 0.35195
236 Norfolk St 0.35133
237 CS Sacramento 0.35062
238 Santa Clara 0.34947
239 E Illinois 0.34751
240 Jacksonville 0.34707
241 Ga Southern 0.34660
242 Florida Intl 0.34337
243 Montana St 0.34254
244 South Alabama 0.34238
245 Houston Bap 0.34233
246 F Dickinson 0.34144
247 La Salle 0.34100
248 Pacific 0.34022
249 Youngstown St 0.34013
250 UC Riverside 0.33954
251 San Jose St 0.33935
252 Seattle 0.33925
253 San Diego 0.33834
254 Colgate 0.33751
255 Rider 0.33524
256 W Illinois 0.33502
257 St Peter’s 0.33263
258 Lehigh 0.32978
259 TX Southern 0.32569
260 CS Northridge 0.32458
261 Jackson St 0.32256
262 Idaho St 0.32065
263 CS Fullerton 0.31695
264 Delaware 0.31554
265 Incarnate Word 0.31378
266 Drake 0.31274
267 Appalachian St 0.31183
268 Drexel 0.31084
269 Missouri KC 0.31060
270 Penn 0.31020
271 Liberty 0.30862
272 St Francis PA 0.30823
273 Cleveland St 0.30663
274 Sam Houston St 0.30654
275 North Texas 0.30085
276 FL Atlantic 0.29781
277 W Carolina 0.29366
278 Southern Miss 0.29321
279 Portland St 0.29305
280 Texas St 0.29234
281 Loyola MD 0.29227
282 UNC Greensboro 0.28640
283 Holy Cross 0.28626
284 Charleston So 0.28626
285 Quinnipiac 0.28543
286 Troy 0.28043
287 Utah Valley 0.28042
288 Citadel 0.27774
289 Brown 0.27447
290 MA Lowell 0.27424
291 Lipscomb 0.27256
292 Kennesaw 0.27194
293 Mt St Mary’s 0.26732
294 Dartmouth 0.26600
295 Long Island 0.26578
296 Rice 0.26325
297 St Francis NY 0.26143
298 Stetson 0.25955
299 N Colorado 0.25948
300 Bradley 0.25622
301 American Univ 0.25132
302 Howard 0.24464
303 Niagara 0.24280
304 Presbyterian 0.23926
305 MD E Shore 0.23647
306 Maine 0.23592
307 Marist 0.23265
308 Longwood 0.22973
309 Alcorn St 0.22809
310 Edwardsville 0.22728
311 Campbell 0.22607
312 Savannah St 0.22336
313 SC Upstate 0.21927
314 Bethune-Cookman 0.21852
315 Sacred Heart 0.21442
316 New Orleans 0.21277
317 UMBC 0.20849
318 NC A&T 0.20193
319 Jacksonville St 0.19843
320 Robert Morris 0.19795
321 Abilene Chr 0.19639
322 Lafayette 0.19579
323 Hartford 0.19530
324 Binghamton 0.19396
325 VMI 0.18728
326 Alabama A&M 0.18693
327 NC Central 0.17786
328 Cent Arkansas 0.16676
329 Bryant 0.15835
330 Southern Utah 0.15489
331 Lamar 0.15273
332 Alabama St 0.14839
333 UT San Antonio 0.14761
334 Nicholls St 0.14675
335 Northern Arizona 0.14653
336 Ark Pine Bluff 0.14546
337 Morgan St 0.13915
338 McNeese St 0.13185
339 Coppin St 0.13030
340 Florida A&M 0.12043
341 Northwestern LA 0.11929
342 UTRGV 0.11591
343 MS Valley St 0.11569
344 IL Chicago 0.11238
345 SE Missouri St 0.10417
346 SE Louisiana 0.09744
347 Grambling 0.07662
348 Central Conn 0.06253
349 Delaware St 0.02928
350 Prairie View 0.02912
351 Chicago St 0.01460
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