After a chaotic 143 game Saturday, we take a look at the changes since our last rankings a mere three days ago. With some bubble teams making noise: Marquette (16-10, 5-8 Big East)  defeated Coaches/AP-ranked Providence (19-7, 7-6 Big East), only to lose to fellow-bubble team Creighton (17-9, 8-5 Big East). Kansas (21-4, 9-3 Big 12) edged out Oklahoma (20-4, 8-4 Big 12) on the road. Bubble team Wisconsin (16-9, 8-4 Big Ten) went into College Park and double-digit upset highly Coaches/AP-ranked Maryland (22-4, 10-3). Duke (19-6, 8-4 ACC) continued their march back into the rankings by defeating Virginia (20-5, 9-4 ACC). Stanford (12-11, 5-7 Pac 12) made a statement with a win over Pac-12 leading Oregon (20-6, 9-4) as they attempt to bolster their resume in hopes of getting off the bubble.

In this edition (and others afterwards until the NCAA tournament) we will focus on who is in, who is out, and who is on the “Bubble”.

March Madness Current Entrants:

Using the current games played, the locations of the games, and the disparity of scores, we are able to build out a current state of the 2016 March Madness Tournament.

Rules: In order to make the tournament, a team must win their conference tournament, win the Ivy League regular season, or become an “at-large” bid that is selected based on merit by an NCAA committee.

In this post, we give an updated rankings for all 351 NCAA Division I teams. But first, we identify the current teams on pace (projected by our models) for becoming conference champions and “at-large” bids.

It should be noted that our rankings will include the suspended Southern Methodist University, whereas the AP Top 25 Coaches’ Poll does not include the Mustangs. Also, in recent light of team discipline, Louisville has also been disqualified from the post-season.

Other Teams Disqualified: Abilene Christian, Grand Canyon, Incarnate Word, Mass – Lowell, Northern Kentucky, NJIT (Transition to Division 1); Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson (NCAA Violations: APR); Missouri, Pacific, Southern Mississippi (Self-Imposed)

Fitting our models, we find that there is a 0.5606 r-squared, indicating an “O.K. but no-where predictive” fit to the games played. Using the rankings as determination for conference winners, we have the following teams with automatic bids:

1. America East: Stony Brook (21-4, 12-0)
2. American: Connecticut (18-7, 8-4)
3. Atlantic 10: Dayton (21-3, 11-1)
4. Atlantic Coast: Virginia (20-5, 9-4)
5. Atlantic Sun: North Florida (18-10, 7-4)
6. Big 12: Oklahoma (20-4, 8-4)
7. Big East: Villanova (22-3, 12-1)
8. Big Sky: Weber State (18-7, 10-2)
9. Big South: UNC Asheville (17-9, 10-4)
10. Big Ten: Iowa (19-5, 10-2)
11. Big West: Hawaii (20-3, 9-1)
12. Colonial Athletic: UNC – Wilmington (20-5, 12-2)
13. Conference USA: UAB (21-5, 11-2)
14. Horizon League: Valparaiso (21-5, 11-2)
15. Ivy League: Yale (17-5, 8-0)
16. Metro Atlantic: Monmouth (21-5, 13-2)
17. Mid-American: Akron (20-5, 9-3)
18. Mid-Eastern: Hampton (14-9, 9-2)
19. Missouri Valley: Wichita State (18-7, 12-2)
20. Mountain West: San Diego State (19-7, 12-1)
21. Northeast: Wagner (16-9, 9-5)
22. Ohio Valley: Belmont (18-9, 10-3)
23. Pac-12: Oregon (20-6, 9-4)
24. Patriot League: Navy (18-9, 9-5)
25. Southeastern: Kentucky (19-6, 9-3)
26. Southern: Chattanooga (23-4, 12-2)
27. Southland: Stephen F. Austin (18-5, 11-0)
28. Southwestern Athletic: Southern (17-8, 9-3)
29. Summit League: South Dakota State (20-6, 9-3)
30. Sun Belt: Arkansas Little Rock (22-3, 12-2)
31. West Coast: Gonzaga (20-6, 12-2)
32. Western Athletic: New Mexico State (18-8, 9-1)

Dropped Out: South Carolina (21-4, 8-4 SEC), Saint Mary’s (20-4, 11-3 West Coast), William & Mary (17-8, 9-5 CAA), Texas A&M Corpus Christi (18-6, 9-3)

Jumped In: Kentucky, Gonzaga, UNC-Wilmington, Stephen F. Austin

The remaining 36 “at-large” teams are then the top 36 teams in our rankings. These 36 teams are given as:

1. Kansas (21-4, 9-3)
2. Xavier (22-3, 10-3)
3. West Virginia (20-5, 9-3)
4. Maryland (22-4, 10-3)
5. Michigan State (20-5, 7-5)
6. Miami (FL) (19-4, 8-3)
7. North Carolina (20-4, 9-2)
8. Iowa State (18-7, 7-5)
9. Purdue (20-6, 8-5)
10. Duke (19-6, 8-4)
11. Arizona (20-5, 8-4)
12. Baylor (18-7, 7-5)
13. Notre Dame (18-7, 9-4)
14. Utah (18-7, 7-5)
15. Texas (16-9, 7-5)
16. South Carolina (21-4, 8-4)
17. Indiana (20-5, 9-2)
18. Michigan (19-7, 9-4)
19. Texas A&M (18-7, 7-5)
20. St. Joseph’s (21-4, 10-2)
21. Colorado (19-7, 8-5)
22. USC (18-6, 7-4)
23. Seton Hall (17-7, 7-5)
24. Syracuse (17-8, 7-5)
25. Pittsburgh (17-6, 6-5)
26. California (17-8, 7-5)
27. Butler (17-8, 6-7)
28. Texas Tech (15-9, 5-7)
29. Providence (19-7, 7-6)
30. Florida (16-9, 7-5)
31. Florida State (16-8, 6-6)
32. Cincinnati (19-7, 9-4)
33. Oregon State (15-9, 5-7)
34. Wisconsin (16-9, 8-4)
35. Creighton (17-9, 8-5)
36. Vanderbilt (15-10, 7-5)

DROPPED OUT: Kansas State (14-11, 3-9), George Washington (18-7, 7-5)

SNEAKED IN: Wisconsin, Creighton

The next set of teams are our current bubble teams. These are teams that are close to making the NCAA Tournament but are on the outside looking in.

1. Alabama (15-9, 6-6)
2. Kansas State (14-11, 3-9)
3. Clemson (15-10, 8-5)
4. Stanford (12-11, 5-7)
5. Washington (15-10, 7-6)
6. St. Bonaventure (17-6, 9-3)
7. George Washington (18-7, 7-5)
8. LSU (16-9, 9-3)
9. Marquette (16-10, 5-8)
10. Tulsa (16-9, 8-5)

FLOATED OUT OF BUBBLE: VCU (18-7, 10-2), St. Mary’s (20-4, 11-3)

CLIMBED INTO BUBBLE: St. Bonaventure (17-6, 9-3), LSU (16-9, 9-3)

As we see, there were four changes in the ranked conference champions (selecting a conference champion based on ranking). The minimum ranking score (for our rankings) for an at-large is 0.72797. Alabama is just outside with a score of 0.72729; a whopping 0.00068 points from making the tournament.

The current state of the NCAA Tournament is given as follows:

NCAA March Madness seedings based on our rankings as of February 11th, 2016.

NCAA March Madness seedings based on our rankings as of February 14th, 2016.

We note that we are not predicting the field of 68, but rather giving seedings based on play up to today. Our goal is to populate the March Madness tournament with current seedings; to give indication of where teams are sitting as of today. As the conference games continue to play out, the field of 68 will become much clearer.