March Madness Bracketology: February 14th Edition (Shake-up from the Wild 143-Game February 13th)

 

After a chaotic 143 game Saturday, we take a look at the changes since our last rankings a mere three days ago. With some bubble teams making noise: Marquette (16-10, 5-8 Big East)  defeated Coaches/AP-ranked Providence (19-7, 7-6 Big East), only to lose to fellow-bubble team Creighton (17-9, 8-5 Big East). Kansas (21-4, 9-3 Big 12) edged out Oklahoma (20-4, 8-4 Big 12) on the road. Bubble team Wisconsin (16-9, 8-4 Big Ten) went into College Park and double-digit upset highly Coaches/AP-ranked Maryland (22-4, 10-3). Duke (19-6, 8-4 ACC) continued their march back into the rankings by defeating Virginia (20-5, 9-4 ACC). Stanford (12-11, 5-7 Pac 12) made a statement with a win over Pac-12 leading Oregon (20-6, 9-4) as they attempt to bolster their resume in hopes of getting off the bubble.

In this edition (and others afterwards until the NCAA tournament) we will focus on who is in, who is out, and who is on the “Bubble”.

March Madness Current Entrants:

Using the current games played, the locations of the games, and the disparity of scores, we are able to build out a current state of the 2016 March Madness Tournament.

Rules: In order to make the tournament, a team must win their conference tournament, win the Ivy League regular season, or become an “at-large” bid that is selected based on merit by an NCAA committee.

In this post, we give an updated rankings for all 351 NCAA Division I teams. But first, we identify the current teams on pace (projected by our models) for becoming conference champions and “at-large” bids.

It should be noted that our rankings will include the suspended Southern Methodist University, whereas the AP Top 25 Coaches’ Poll does not include the Mustangs. Also, in recent light of team discipline, Louisville has also been disqualified from the post-season.

Other Teams Disqualified: Abilene Christian, Grand Canyon, Incarnate Word, Mass – Lowell, Northern Kentucky, NJIT (Transition to Division 1); Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson (NCAA Violations: APR); Missouri, Pacific, Southern Mississippi (Self-Imposed)

Fitting our models, we find that there is a 0.5606 r-squared, indicating an “O.K. but no-where predictive” fit to the games played. Using the rankings as determination for conference winners, we have the following teams with automatic bids:

  1. America East: Stony Brook (21-4, 12-0)
  2. American: Connecticut (18-7, 8-4)
  3. Atlantic 10: Dayton (21-3, 11-1)
  4. Atlantic Coast: Virginia (20-5, 9-4)
  5. Atlantic Sun: North Florida (18-10, 7-4)
  6. Big 12: Oklahoma (20-4, 8-4)
  7. Big East: Villanova (22-3, 12-1)
  8. Big Sky: Weber State (18-7, 10-2)
  9. Big South: UNC Asheville (17-9, 10-4)
  10. Big Ten: Iowa (19-5, 10-2)
  11. Big West: Hawaii (20-3, 9-1)
  12. Colonial Athletic: UNC – Wilmington (20-5, 12-2)
  13. Conference USA: UAB (21-5, 11-2)
  14. Horizon League: Valparaiso (21-5, 11-2)
  15. Ivy League: Yale (17-5, 8-0)
  16. Metro Atlantic: Monmouth (21-5, 13-2)
  17. Mid-American: Akron (20-5, 9-3)
  18. Mid-Eastern: Hampton (14-9, 9-2)
  19. Missouri Valley: Wichita State (18-7, 12-2)
  20. Mountain West: San Diego State (19-7, 12-1)
  21. Northeast: Wagner (16-9, 9-5)
  22. Ohio Valley: Belmont (18-9, 10-3)
  23. Pac-12: Oregon (20-6, 9-4)
  24. Patriot League: Navy (18-9, 9-5)
  25. Southeastern: Kentucky (19-6, 9-3)
  26. Southern: Chattanooga (23-4, 12-2)
  27. Southland: Stephen F. Austin (18-5, 11-0)
  28. Southwestern Athletic: Southern (17-8, 9-3)
  29. Summit League: South Dakota State (20-6, 9-3)
  30. Sun Belt: Arkansas Little Rock (22-3, 12-2)
  31. West Coast: Gonzaga (20-6, 12-2)
  32. Western Athletic: New Mexico State (18-8, 9-1)

Dropped Out: South Carolina (21-4, 8-4 SEC), Saint Mary’s (20-4, 11-3 West Coast), William & Mary (17-8, 9-5 CAA), Texas A&M Corpus Christi (18-6, 9-3)

Jumped In: Kentucky, Gonzaga, UNC-Wilmington, Stephen F. Austin

The remaining 36 “at-large” teams are then the top 36 teams in our rankings. These 36 teams are given as:

  1. Kansas (21-4, 9-3)
  2. Xavier (22-3, 10-3)
  3. West Virginia (20-5, 9-3)
  4. Maryland (22-4, 10-3)
  5. Michigan State (20-5, 7-5)
  6. Miami (FL) (19-4, 8-3)
  7. North Carolina (20-4, 9-2)
  8. Iowa State (18-7, 7-5)
  9. Purdue (20-6, 8-5)
  10. Duke (19-6, 8-4)
  11. Arizona (20-5, 8-4)
  12. Baylor (18-7, 7-5)
  13. Notre Dame (18-7, 9-4)
  14. Utah (18-7, 7-5)
  15. Texas (16-9, 7-5)
  16. South Carolina (21-4, 8-4)
  17. Indiana (20-5, 9-2)
  18. Michigan (19-7, 9-4)
  19. Texas A&M (18-7, 7-5)
  20. St. Joseph’s (21-4, 10-2)
  21. Colorado (19-7, 8-5)
  22. USC (18-6, 7-4)
  23. Seton Hall (17-7, 7-5)
  24. Syracuse (17-8, 7-5)
  25. Pittsburgh (17-6, 6-5)
  26. California (17-8, 7-5)
  27. Butler (17-8, 6-7)
  28. Texas Tech (15-9, 5-7)
  29. Providence (19-7, 7-6)
  30. Florida (16-9, 7-5)
  31. Florida State (16-8, 6-6)
  32. Cincinnati (19-7, 9-4)
  33. Oregon State (15-9, 5-7)
  34. Wisconsin (16-9, 8-4)
  35. Creighton (17-9, 8-5)
  36. Vanderbilt (15-10, 7-5)

DROPPED OUT: Kansas State (14-11, 3-9), George Washington (18-7, 7-5)

SNEAKED IN: Wisconsin, Creighton

The next set of teams are our current bubble teams. These are teams that are close to making the NCAA Tournament but are on the outside looking in.

  1. Alabama (15-9, 6-6)
  2. Kansas State (14-11, 3-9)
  3. Clemson (15-10, 8-5)
  4. Stanford (12-11, 5-7)
  5. Washington (15-10, 7-6)
  6. St. Bonaventure (17-6, 9-3)
  7. George Washington (18-7, 7-5)
  8. LSU (16-9, 9-3)
  9. Marquette (16-10, 5-8)
  10. Tulsa (16-9, 8-5)

FLOATED OUT OF BUBBLE: VCU (18-7, 10-2), St. Mary’s (20-4, 11-3)

CLIMBED INTO BUBBLE: St. Bonaventure (17-6, 9-3), LSU (16-9, 9-3)

As we see, there were four changes in the ranked conference champions (selecting a conference champion based on ranking). The minimum ranking score (for our rankings) for an at-large is 0.72797. Alabama is just outside with a score of 0.72729; a whopping 0.00068 points from making the tournament.

The current state of the NCAA Tournament is given as follows:

NCAA March Madness seedings based on our rankings as of February 11th, 2016.

MarchMadnessFebruary14th

NCAA March Madness seedings based on our rankings as of February 14th, 2016.

We note that we are not predicting the field of 68, but rather giving seedings based on play up to today. Our goal is to populate the March Madness tournament with current seedings; to give indication of where teams are sitting as of today. As the conference games continue to play out, the field of 68 will become much clearer.

Rank Team Score Record MM Position
1 Villanova 1.00000 22-3 (12-1) Big East
2 Oklahoma 0.94431 20-4 (8-4) Big 12
3 Kansas 0.93861 21-4 (9-3) At Large
4 Xavier 0.93598 22-3 (10-3) At Large
5 SMU 0.89262 21-3 (9-3) DQ: Violations
6 West Virginia 0.89018 20-5 (9-3) At Large
7 Iowa 0.88094 19-5 (10-2) Big Ten
8 Virginia 0.87649 20-5 (9-4) ACC
9 Maryland 0.87198 22-4 (10-3) At Large
10 Michigan St 0.86852 20-5 (7-5) At Large
11 Miami FL 0.86771 19-4 (8-3) At Large
12 Dayton 0.86356 21-3 (11-1) Atlantic 10
13 North Carolina 0.86071 20-4 (9-2) At Large
14 Iowa St 0.84714 18-7 (7-5) At Large
15 Purdue 0.82947 20-6 (8-5) At Large
16 Oregon 0.82780 20-6 (9-4) Pac 12
17 Duke 0.82736 19-6 (8-4) At Large
18 Arizona 0.81233 20-5 (8-4) At Large
19 Louisville 0.81169 19-6 (8-4) DQ: Self-Imposed
20 Baylor 0.80589 18-7 (7-5) At Large
21 Kentucky 0.80528 19-6 (9-3) SEC
22 Notre Dame 0.80521 18-7 (9-4) At Large
23 Utah 0.80436 18-7 (7-5) At Large
24 Texas 0.80333 16-9 (7-5) At Large
25 South Carolina 0.80252 21-4 (8-4) At Large
26 Indiana 0.80089 20-5 (10-2) At Large
27 Michigan 0.79882 19-7 (9-4) At Large
28 Texas A&M 0.78595 18-7 (7-5) At Large
29 St Joseph’s PA 0.78425 21-4 (10-2) At Large
30 Colorado 0.78194 19-7 (8-5) At Large
31 USC 0.78121 18-6 (7-4) At Large
32 Seton Hall 0.78059 17-7 (7-5) At Large
33 Syracuse 0.77494 17-8 (7-5) At Large
34 Pittsburgh 0.77397 17-6 (6-5) At Large
35 California 0.77391 17-8 (7-5) At Large
36 Butler 0.77319 17-8 (6-7) At Large
37 Texas Tech 0.77061 15-9 (5-7) At Large
38 Providence 0.77036 19-7 (7-6) At Large
39 Connecticut 0.75021 18-7 (8-4) American
40 Florida 0.75013 16-9 (7-5) At Large
41 Florida St 0.74761 16-8 (6-6) At Large
42 Cincinnati 0.74675 19-7 (9-4) At Large
43 Hawaii 0.74616 20-3 (9-1) Big West
44 Oregon St 0.74536 15-9 (5-7) At Large
45 Wisconsin 0.74506 16-9 (8-4) At Large
46 Creighton 0.74388 17-9 (8-5) At Large
47 Vanderbilt 0.72797 15-10 (7-5) At Large
48 Alabama 0.72729 15-9 (6-6) Bubble
49 Kansas St 0.72622 14-11 (3-9) Bubble
50 Clemson 0.71988 15-10 (8-5) Bubble
51 Stanford 0.71713 12-11 (5-7) Bubble
52 Washington 0.71631 15-10 (7-6) Bubble
53 St Bonaventure 0.71177 17-6 (9-3) Bubble
54 G Washington 0.71067 18-7 (7-5) Bubble
55 Gonzaga 0.70865 20-6 (12-2) West Coast
56 Wichita St 0.70844 18-7 (12-2) Missouri Valley
57 LSU 0.70598 16-9 (9-3) Bubble
58 Marquette 0.70273 16-10 (5-8) Bubble
59 Tulsa 0.70017 16-9 (8-5) Bubble
60 Ark Little Rock 0.69990 22-3 (12-2) Sun Belt
61 St Mary’s CA 0.69972 20-4 (11-3)
62 Georgia 0.69584 14-9 (7-5)
63 San Diego St 0.69577 19-7 (12-1) Mountain West
64 UCLA 0.69339 13-11 (4-7)
65 VA Commonwealth 0.69080 18-7 (10-2)
66 Georgetown 0.68932 14-12 (7-6)
67 Monmouth NJ 0.68705 21-5 (13-2) MAAC
68 Arizona St 0.68669 14-11 (4-8)
69 Temple 0.68563 15-8 (9-3)
70 Northwestern 0.68354 17-9 (5-8)
71 Chattanooga 0.68329 23-4 (12-2) Southern
72 Houston 0.68058 18-7 (8-5)
73 Georgia Tech 0.67413 13-12 (3-9)
74 Ohio St 0.67310 16-10 (8-5)
75 Mississippi 0.66876 16-9 (6-6)
76 Virginia Tech 0.66611 13-12 (5-7)
77 Valparaiso 0.66064 21-5 (11-2) Horizon League
78 NC State 0.65243 13-12 (3-9)
79 Nebraska 0.63683 14-12 (6-7)
80 Stony Brook 0.63494 21-4 (12-0) America East
81 UNC Wilmington 0.63490 20-5 (12-2) Colonial Athletic
82 Akron 0.63457 20-5 (9-3) Mid-American
83 Oklahoma St 0.63051 12-13 (3-9)
84 Richmond 0.62408 14-10 (6-6)
85 Yale 0.62377 17-5 (8-0) Ivy League
86 Evansville 0.62294 19-7 (8-5)
87 Grand Canyon 0.62149 22-4 (8-2) DQ: Transition
88 Wake Forest 0.62115 10-15 (1-12)
89 Arkansas 0.62086 12-13 (5-7)
90 Davidson 0.62084 14-9 (6-6)
91 William & Mary 0.61903 17-8 (9-5)
92 UAB 0.61798 21-5 (11-2) Conference USA
93 BYU 0.61371 19-8 (10-4)
94 Princeton 0.61298 16-5 (6-1)
95 S Dakota St 0.61174 20-6 (9-3) Summit League
96 James Madison 0.60993 19-8 (9-5)
97 Tennessee 0.60686 12-13 (5-7)
98 UC Irvine 0.60371 19-7 (8-2)
99 Memphis 0.60330 14-11 (5-7)
100 Boise St 0.60104 17-9 (8-5)
101 Rhode Island 0.60044
102 Penn St 0.59917
103 Duquesne 0.59900
104 TCU 0.59885
105 Hofstra 0.59754
106 Illinois 0.58875
107 S Illinois 0.58405
108 Northern Iowa 0.58349
109 UNLV 0.57862
110 New Mexico 0.57784
111 Col Charleston 0.57689
112 Long Beach St 0.57635
113 Ohio 0.57435
114 DePaul 0.57265
115 IPFW 0.56508
116 Fresno St 0.56387
117 Illinois St 0.56314
118 Oakland 0.55627
119 W Kentucky 0.55168
120 Nevada 0.55081
121 Auburn 0.55053
122 Pepperdine 0.54816
123 SF Austin 0.54792 18-5 (11-0) Southland
124 UT Arlington 0.54705
125 Belmont 0.54585 18-9 (10-3) Ohio Valley
126 MTSU 0.54583
127 Louisiana Tech 0.54550
128 Mississippi St 0.54254
129 N Illinois 0.54033
130 Santa Barbara 0.53682
131 Kent 0.53565
132 New Mexico St 0.53288 18-8 (9-1) WAC
133 Buffalo 0.52983
134 Missouri 0.52611 DQ: Self-Imposed
135 Mercer 0.52593
136 Toledo 0.52455
137 Towson 0.52255
138 Siena 0.52196
139 NE Omaha 0.51736
140 Colorado St 0.51544
141 TAM C. Christi 0.51413
142 Washington St 0.51175
143 Northeastern 0.51062
144 Columbia 0.50688
145 Utah St 0.50561
146 Indiana St 0.50503
147 Ball St 0.50462
148 Tennessee St 0.50385
149 Elon 0.50346
150 WI Milwaukee 0.50294
151 ULL 0.50202
152 Tennessee Tech 0.49994
153 Fordham 0.49913
154 Massachusetts 0.49494
155 Wright St 0.49435
156 N Dakota St 0.49025
157 UCF 0.49000
158 East Carolina 0.48953
159 ETSU 0.48703
160 George Mason 0.48491
161 Albany NY 0.48428
162 CS Bakersfield 0.48263
163 WI Green Bay 0.48259
164 UNC Asheville 0.48237 17-9 (10-4) Big South
165 Oral Roberts 0.47988
166 Old Dominion 0.47713
167 E Michigan 0.47502
168 Wyoming 0.47487
169 Weber St 0.47435 18-7 (10-2) Big Sky
170 Winthrop 0.47227
171 Iona 0.47118
172 Minnesota 0.46808
173 Marshall 0.46582
174 Morehead St 0.46580
175 C Michigan 0.46358
176 Missouri St 0.46268
177 Detroit 0.46262
178 Loyola-Chicago 0.46056
179 Coastal Car 0.45852
180 Montana 0.45256
181 Furman 0.44912
182 Georgia St 0.44900
183 ULM 0.44679
184 South Dakota 0.44527
185 High Point 0.44503
186 North Florida 0.44289 18-10 (7-4) Atlantic Sun
187 Murray St 0.44065
188 NJIT 0.44060 DQ: Transition
189 Radford 0.44034
190 St Louis 0.43885
191 W Michigan 0.43297
192 St John’s 0.43190
193 Fairfield 0.43038
194 IUPUI 0.43013
195 Tulane 0.42925
196 Navy 0.42878 18-9 (9-5) Patriot League
197 Wofford 0.42766
198 Denver 0.42761
199 Air Force 0.42665
200 San Francisco 0.42490
201 Boston College 0.42328
202 FL Gulf Coast 0.42106
203 Vermont 0.41768
204 Bowling Green 0.41397
205 UTEP 0.40782
206 TN Martin 0.40235
207 Southern Univ 0.40017 17-8 (9-3) SWAC
208 Idaho 0.39866
209 E Kentucky 0.39670
210 Miami OH 0.39485
211 Cal Poly SLO 0.39294
212 Boston Univ 0.39064
213 Charlotte 0.38936
214 Portland 0.38740
215 Bucknell 0.38715
216 Wagner 0.38587 16-9 (9-5) Northeast
217 E Washington 0.38354
218 Loy Marymount 0.38174
219 Manhattan 0.38101
220 Hampton 0.37509 14-9 (9-2) MEAC
221 New Hampshire 0.37505
222 South Alabama 0.37397
223 Canisius 0.37191
224 Gardner Webb 0.37093
225 Rutgers 0.37030
226 Harvard 0.36571
227 North Dakota 0.36189
228 Army 0.36064
229 South Florida 0.35807
230 W Illinois 0.35704
231 Santa Clara 0.35649
232 Arkansas St 0.35408
233 W Carolina 0.35347
234 Ga Southern 0.35246
235 Colgate 0.35244
236 Samford 0.35203
237 Norfolk St 0.35142
238 Austin Peay 0.35104
239 UC Davis 0.34938
240 Cornell 0.34616
241 TX Southern 0.34418
242 Montana St 0.34403
243 La Salle 0.33890
244 N Kentucky 0.33872 DQ: Transition
245 S Carolina St 0.33857
246 Florida Intl 0.33841
247 Seattle 0.33740
248 San Jose St 0.33505
249 Idaho St 0.33496
250 E Illinois 0.33358
251 St Peter’s 0.33298
252 CS Sacramento 0.33218
253 Rider 0.33207
254 Cleveland St 0.33164
255 Lehigh 0.33151
256 UC Riverside 0.33082
257 Delaware 0.32825
258 Penn 0.32793
259 Sam Houston St 0.32777
260 F Dickinson 0.32747
261 Houston Bap 0.32732
262 Youngstown St 0.32532
263 Incarnate Word 0.32422 DQ: Transition
264 Liberty 0.32311
265 Pacific 0.32209 DQ: Self-Imposed
266 CS Northridge 0.32157
267 Drake 0.32128
268 Missouri KC 0.32075
269 Jacksonville 0.31796
270 Kennesaw 0.31608
271 San Diego 0.31511
272 Jackson St 0.31456
273 Lipscomb 0.31201
274 Texas St 0.31131
275 CS Fullerton 0.30986
276 Appalachian St 0.30363
277 St Francis PA 0.30049
278 FL Atlantic 0.29825
279 Troy 0.29523
280 Southern Miss 0.29426 DQ: Self-Imposed
281 Charleston So 0.29306
282 North Texas 0.29078
283 Loyola MD 0.28960
284 Mt St Mary’s 0.28856
285 Drexel 0.28619
286 Rice 0.28442
287 Holy Cross 0.28421
288 MA Lowell 0.28368 DQ: Transition
289 Long Island 0.28329
290 Dartmouth 0.28078
291 UNC Greensboro 0.27871
292 Portland St 0.27828
293 Utah Valley 0.27372
294 Citadel 0.27296
295 Quinnipiac 0.27040
296 Campbell 0.26629
297 St Francis NY 0.26107
298 Bradley 0.25694
299 Savannah St 0.24793
300 Edwardsville 0.24763
301 American Univ 0.24563
302 N Colorado 0.24504
303 Brown 0.24310
304 Stetson 0.23811 DQ: APR
305 SC Upstate 0.23572
306 Alcorn St 0.23518 DQ: APR
307 IL Chicago 0.22925
308 Niagara 0.22851
309 Howard 0.22631
310 VMI 0.22594
311 Maine 0.22593
312 Longwood 0.22270
313 Marist 0.22152
314 Presbyterian 0.22088
315 MD E Shore 0.21411
316 Sacred Heart 0.21275
317 NC A&T 0.21214
318 Binghamton 0.20890
319 Robert Morris 0.20835
320 UMBC 0.20495
321 Abilene Chr 0.20112 DQ: Transition
322 Bethune-Cookman 0.19866
323 NC Central 0.19813
324 Jacksonville St 0.19371
325 Lafayette 0.19296
326 New Orleans 0.18836
327 Hartford 0.17905
328 Alabama A&M 0.17194
329 Alabama St 0.16466
330 Lamar 0.15774
331 Coppin St 0.15702
332 Cent Arkansas 0.15620 DQ: APR
333 Bryant 0.15003
334 Northwestern LA 0.14828
335 Ark Pine Bluff 0.14690
336 McNeese St 0.14165
337 Southern Utah 0.13892
338 Morgan St 0.13812
339 UT San Antonio 0.13334
340 Northern Arizona 0.12997
341 Nicholls St 0.12548
342 SE Louisiana 0.12437
343 Florida A&M 0.11829 DQ: APR
344 MS Valley St 0.11144
345 UTRGV 0.10668
346 SE Missouri St 0.09125
347 Delaware St 0.07097
348 Prairie View 0.05736
349 Grambling 0.05428
350 Central Conn 0.04419
351 Chicago St 0.01429
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