Another 3 days, another 214 NCAA Division I Men’s basketball games played. This time around, the NCAA Top 10 teams have a relatively standard half-week as they compiled a 6-2 record. The two losses coming from #10 West Virginia (20-7) losing to #3 Oklahoma (21-5), 62-76, in Morgantown, WV on the 20th; and from #6 Maryland (22-5) getting upset by unranked Minnesota (7-19) in Minneapolis, MN on the 18th.

These last three days saw the more important games being played in the non-power conference areas. In the Ivy League, Yale (18-6) was unable to fend off Princeton (18-5); allowing Princeton to match them in the losses column (1) with a couple weeks remaining to the schedule. Recall that the Ivy League sends the best regular season team to the Championship Tournament; as this conference may come down to a single-game playoff. St. Mary’s (22-4) managed to pull back into a tie for first in the WAC with a 63-58 victory over Gonzaga (21-7).

In the American Conference, Cincinnati (20-8) defeated Connecticut (19-8) 65-60, to pull within a game of Temple (16-9). Meanwhile, Winthrop (20-7) defeated UNC Asheville (18-10) in a close 81-80 game to takeover control of the Big South.

The biggest move in power conference play was the Texas A&M (20-7) narrow 79-77 victory over Kentucky (20-7). While Kentucky controls the Southeastern conference lead by a full game over Texas A&M, the win moves the Aggies two spots in front of the Wildcats for rankings. This indicates that the two teams are fairly competitive with one another and the conference tournament will eventually dictate their final positions relative to each other before Selection Sunday.

In this edition, we update the rankings based on these games and give insight to the our predicted state of the NCAA tournament entries.

March Madness Current Entrants:

Using the current games played, the locations of the games, and the disparity of scores, we are able to build out a current state of the 2016 March Madness Tournament.

Rules: In order to make the tournament, a team must win their conference tournament, win the Ivy League regular season, or become an “at-large” bid that is selected based on merit by an NCAA committee.

In this post, we give an updated rankings for all 351 NCAA Division I teams. But first, we identify the current teams on pace (projected by our models) for becoming conference champions and “at-large” bids.

It should be noted that our rankings will include the suspended Southern Methodist University, whereas the AP Top 25 Coaches’ Poll does not include the Mustangs. Also, in recent light of team discipline, Louisville has also been disqualified from the post-season.

Other Teams Disqualified: Abilene Christian, Grand Canyon, Incarnate Word, Mass – Lowell, Northern Kentucky, NJIT (Transition to Division 1); Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson (NCAA Violations: APR); Missouri, Pacific, Southern Mississippi (Self-Imposed)

Fitting our models, we find that there is a 0.5477 r-squared, indicating an “O.K. but no-where predictive” fit to the games played. Note that an r-squared value of 0.25 typically indicates coin flips. Using the rankings as determination for conference winners, we have the following teams with automatic bids:

1. America East: Stony Brook (22-5, 13-1)
2. American: Connecticut (19-8, 9-5)
3. Atlantic 10: Dayton (21-5, 11-3)
4. Atlantic Coast: Virginia (21-5, 10-4)
5. Atlantic Sun: North Florida (20-10, 9-4)
6. Big 12: Kansas (23-4, 11-3)
7. Big East: Villanova (24-3, 13-1)
8. Big Sky: Weber State (20-7, 12-2)
9. Big South: Winthrop (20-7, 12-4)
10. Big Ten: Michigan State (22-5, 9-5)
11. Big West: Hawaii (22-3, 11-1)
12. Colonial Athletic: UNC – Wilmington (21-6, 13-3)
13. Conference USA: UAB (21-5, 11-2)
14. Horizon League: Valparaiso (23-5, 13-2)
15. Ivy League: Yale (18-6, 9-1)
16. Metro Atlantic: Monmouth (22-6, 14-3)
17. Mid-American: Akron (21-6, 10-4)
18. Mid-Eastern: Hampton (15-9, 10-2)
19. Missouri Valley: Wichita State (20-7, 13-2)
20. Mountain West: San Diego State (19-7, 12-1)
21. Northeast: Wagner (18-9, 11-5)
22. Ohio Valley: Belmont (20-9, 12-3)
23. Pac-12: Oregon (21-6, 10-4)
24. Patriot League: Boston University (17-11, 10-5)
25. Southeastern: Texas A&M (20-7, 9-5)
26. Southern: Chattanooga (24-5, 13-3)
27. Southland: Stephen F. Austin (20-5, 13-0)
28. Southwestern Athletic: Southern (18-9, 10-4)
29. Summit League: South Dakota State (21-7, 10-4)
30. Sun Belt: Arkansas Little Rock (24-3, 14-2)
31. West Coast: St. Mary’s (22-4, 13-3)
32. Western Athletic: New Mexico State (20-9, 11-1)

Dropped Out: Kentucky (20-7, 10-4), Gonzaga (20-6, 12-2), UNC Asheville (17-9, 10-4), Navy (18-10, 9-6)

Jumped In: Texas A&M, St. Mary’s, Winthrop

The remaining 36 “at-large” teams are then the top 36 teams in our rankings. These 36 teams are given as:

1. Xavier (24-3, 12-3)
2. Oklahoma (21-5, 9-5)
3. North Carolina (22-5, 11-3)
4. West Virginia (20-7, 9-5)
5. Miami (FL) (21-5, 10-3)
6. Iowa (20-6, 11-3)
7. Baylor (20-7, 9-5)
8. Arizona (22-5, 10-4)
9. Iowa State (19-8, 8-6)
10. Maryland (22-5, 10-3)
11. Duke (20-7, 9-5)
12. Utah (20-7, 9-5)
13. Purdue (21-7, 9-6)
14. Texas (17-10, 8-6)
15. Indiana (22-6, 11-3)
16. Texas Tech (17-9, 7-7)
17. Kentucky (20-7, 10-4)
18. Seton Hall (18-7, 8-5)
19. Notre Dame (18-8, 9-5)
20. USC (19-7, 8-5)
21. Pittsburgh (19-7, 8-6)
22. California (18-8, 8-5)
23. South Carolina (22-5, 9-5)
24. St. Joseph’s (22-5, 11-3)
25. Butler (18-9, 7-8)
26. Michigan (19-8, 9-5)
27. Providence (19-8, 7-7)
28. Colorado (19-9, 8-7)
29. Syracuse (18-10, 8-7)
30. Cincinnati (20-8, 10-5)
31. Florida (17-10, 8-6)
32. Oregon State (15-10, 6-8)
33. Wisconsin (16-10, 8-5)
34. Kansas State (15-12, 4-10)
35. Creighton (17-10, 8-6)
36. Washington (16-11, 8-7)

DROPPED OUT: Alabama (16-10, 7-7)

SNEAKED IN: Washington

The next set of teams are our current bubble teams. These are teams that are close to making the NCAA Tournament but are on the outside looking in.

1. Vanderbilt (16-11, 8-6)
2. George Washington (19-7, 8-5)
3. UCLA (15-12, 6-8)
4. Tulsa (17-9, 9-5)
5. Florida State (16-11, 6-9)
6. Alabama (16-10, 7-7)
7. VCU (20-7, 12-2)
8. Stanford (13-12, 6-8)
9. Georgia Tech (15-12, 5-9)
10. Clemson (16-11, 9-6)

FLOATED OUT OF BUBBLE: Gonzaga (21-7, 13-3)

CLIMBED INTO BUBBLE: Georgia Tech

The current state of the NCAA Tournament is given as follows:

NCAA March Madness seedings based on our rankings as of February 20th, 2016.

We note that we are not predicting the field of 68, but rather giving seedings based on play up to today. Our goal is to populate the March Madness tournament with current seedings; to give indication of where teams are sitting as of today. As the conference games continue to play out, the field of 68 will become much clearer.