March Madness Bracketology: February 20th Edition

Another 3 days, another 214 NCAA Division I Men’s basketball games played. This time around, the NCAA Top 10 teams have a relatively standard half-week as they compiled a 6-2 record. The two losses coming from #10 West Virginia (20-7) losing to #3 Oklahoma (21-5), 62-76, in Morgantown, WV on the 20th; and from #6 Maryland (22-5) getting upset by unranked Minnesota (7-19) in Minneapolis, MN on the 18th.

These last three days saw the more important games being played in the non-power conference areas. In the Ivy League, Yale (18-6) was unable to fend off Princeton (18-5); allowing Princeton to match them in the losses column (1) with a couple weeks remaining to the schedule. Recall that the Ivy League sends the best regular season team to the Championship Tournament; as this conference may come down to a single-game playoff. St. Mary’s (22-4) managed to pull back into a tie for first in the WAC with a 63-58 victory over Gonzaga (21-7).

In the American Conference, Cincinnati (20-8) defeated Connecticut (19-8) 65-60, to pull within a game of Temple (16-9). Meanwhile, Winthrop (20-7) defeated UNC Asheville (18-10) in a close 81-80 game to takeover control of the Big South.

The biggest move in power conference play was the Texas A&M (20-7) narrow 79-77 victory over Kentucky (20-7). While Kentucky controls the Southeastern conference lead by a full game over Texas A&M, the win moves the Aggies two spots in front of the Wildcats for rankings. This indicates that the two teams are fairly competitive with one another and the conference tournament will eventually dictate their final positions relative to each other before Selection Sunday.

In this edition, we update the rankings based on these games and give insight to the our predicted state of the NCAA tournament entries.

March Madness Current Entrants:

Using the current games played, the locations of the games, and the disparity of scores, we are able to build out a current state of the 2016 March Madness Tournament.

Rules: In order to make the tournament, a team must win their conference tournament, win the Ivy League regular season, or become an “at-large” bid that is selected based on merit by an NCAA committee.

In this post, we give an updated rankings for all 351 NCAA Division I teams. But first, we identify the current teams on pace (projected by our models) for becoming conference champions and “at-large” bids.

It should be noted that our rankings will include the suspended Southern Methodist University, whereas the AP Top 25 Coaches’ Poll does not include the Mustangs. Also, in recent light of team discipline, Louisville has also been disqualified from the post-season.

Other Teams Disqualified: Abilene Christian, Grand Canyon, Incarnate Word, Mass – Lowell, Northern Kentucky, NJIT (Transition to Division 1); Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson (NCAA Violations: APR); Missouri, Pacific, Southern Mississippi (Self-Imposed)

Fitting our models, we find that there is a 0.5477 r-squared, indicating an “O.K. but no-where predictive” fit to the games played. Note that an r-squared value of 0.25 typically indicates coin flips. Using the rankings as determination for conference winners, we have the following teams with automatic bids:

  1. America East: Stony Brook (22-5, 13-1)
  2. American: Connecticut (19-8, 9-5)
  3. Atlantic 10: Dayton (21-5, 11-3)
  4. Atlantic Coast: Virginia (21-5, 10-4)
  5. Atlantic Sun: North Florida (20-10, 9-4)
  6. Big 12: Kansas (23-4, 11-3)
  7. Big East: Villanova (24-3, 13-1)
  8. Big Sky: Weber State (20-7, 12-2)
  9. Big South: Winthrop (20-7, 12-4)
  10. Big Ten: Michigan State (22-5, 9-5)
  11. Big West: Hawaii (22-3, 11-1)
  12. Colonial Athletic: UNC – Wilmington (21-6, 13-3)
  13. Conference USA: UAB (21-5, 11-2)
  14. Horizon League: Valparaiso (23-5, 13-2)
  15. Ivy League: Yale (18-6, 9-1)
  16. Metro Atlantic: Monmouth (22-6, 14-3)
  17. Mid-American: Akron (21-6, 10-4)
  18. Mid-Eastern: Hampton (15-9, 10-2)
  19. Missouri Valley: Wichita State (20-7, 13-2)
  20. Mountain West: San Diego State (19-7, 12-1)
  21. Northeast: Wagner (18-9, 11-5)
  22. Ohio Valley: Belmont (20-9, 12-3)
  23. Pac-12: Oregon (21-6, 10-4)
  24. Patriot League: Boston University (17-11, 10-5)
  25. Southeastern: Texas A&M (20-7, 9-5)
  26. Southern: Chattanooga (24-5, 13-3)
  27. Southland: Stephen F. Austin (20-5, 13-0)
  28. Southwestern Athletic: Southern (18-9, 10-4)
  29. Summit League: South Dakota State (21-7, 10-4)
  30. Sun Belt: Arkansas Little Rock (24-3, 14-2)
  31. West Coast: St. Mary’s (22-4, 13-3)
  32. Western Athletic: New Mexico State (20-9, 11-1)

Dropped Out: Kentucky (20-7, 10-4), Gonzaga (20-6, 12-2), UNC Asheville (17-9, 10-4), Navy (18-10, 9-6)

Jumped In: Texas A&M, St. Mary’s, Winthrop

The remaining 36 “at-large” teams are then the top 36 teams in our rankings. These 36 teams are given as:

  1. Xavier (24-3, 12-3)
  2. Oklahoma (21-5, 9-5)
  3. North Carolina (22-5, 11-3)
  4. West Virginia (20-7, 9-5)
  5. Miami (FL) (21-5, 10-3)
  6. Iowa (20-6, 11-3)
  7. Baylor (20-7, 9-5)
  8. Arizona (22-5, 10-4)
  9. Iowa State (19-8, 8-6)
  10. Maryland (22-5, 10-3)
  11. Duke (20-7, 9-5)
  12. Utah (20-7, 9-5)
  13. Purdue (21-7, 9-6)
  14. Texas (17-10, 8-6)
  15. Indiana (22-6, 11-3)
  16. Texas Tech (17-9, 7-7)
  17. Kentucky (20-7, 10-4)
  18. Seton Hall (18-7, 8-5)
  19. Notre Dame (18-8, 9-5)
  20. USC (19-7, 8-5)
  21. Pittsburgh (19-7, 8-6)
  22. California (18-8, 8-5)
  23. South Carolina (22-5, 9-5)
  24. St. Joseph’s (22-5, 11-3)
  25. Butler (18-9, 7-8)
  26. Michigan (19-8, 9-5)
  27. Providence (19-8, 7-7)
  28. Colorado (19-9, 8-7)
  29. Syracuse (18-10, 8-7)
  30. Cincinnati (20-8, 10-5)
  31. Florida (17-10, 8-6)
  32. Oregon State (15-10, 6-8)
  33. Wisconsin (16-10, 8-5)
  34. Kansas State (15-12, 4-10)
  35. Creighton (17-10, 8-6)
  36. Washington (16-11, 8-7)

DROPPED OUT: Alabama (16-10, 7-7)

SNEAKED IN: Washington

The next set of teams are our current bubble teams. These are teams that are close to making the NCAA Tournament but are on the outside looking in.

  1. Vanderbilt (16-11, 8-6)
  2. George Washington (19-7, 8-5)
  3. UCLA (15-12, 6-8)
  4. Tulsa (17-9, 9-5)
  5. Florida State (16-11, 6-9)
  6. Alabama (16-10, 7-7)
  7. VCU (20-7, 12-2)
  8. Stanford (13-12, 6-8)
  9. Georgia Tech (15-12, 5-9)
  10. Clemson (16-11, 9-6)

FLOATED OUT OF BUBBLE: Gonzaga (21-7, 13-3)

CLIMBED INTO BUBBLE: Georgia Tech

The current state of the NCAA Tournament is given as follows:

MarchMadnessFebruary20th

NCAA March Madness seedings based on our rankings as of February 20th, 2016.

We note that we are not predicting the field of 68, but rather giving seedings based on play up to today. Our goal is to populate the March Madness tournament with current seedings; to give indication of where teams are sitting as of today. As the conference games continue to play out, the field of 68 will become much clearer.

Rank Team Score Record MM Position
1 Villanova 0.99957 24-3 (13-1) Big East
2 Kansas 0.93496 23-4 (11-3) Big 12
3 Xavier 0.93139 24-3 (12-3) At Large
4 Oklahoma 0.92164 21-5 (9-5) At Large
5 Virginia 0.87476 21-5 (10-4) ACC
6 Michigan St 0.87051 22-5 (9-5) Big Ten
7 North Carolina 0.86187 22-5 (11-3) At Large
8 West Virginia 0.85470 20-7 (9-5) At Large
9 Miami FL 0.85124 21-5 (10-4) At Large
10 SMU 0.84282 21-4 (9-4) DQ: Violations
11 Iowa 0.83261 20-6 (11-3) At Large
12 Louisville 0.83226 21-6 (10-4) DQ: Self-Imposed
13 Oregon 0.82981 21-6 (10-4) Pac-12
14 Baylor 0.82942 20-7 (9-5) At Large
15 Arizona 0.82723 22-5 (10-4) At Large
16 Iowa St 0.82689 19-8 (8-6) At Large
17 Maryland 0.82600 22-5 (10-4) At Large
18 Duke 0.82409 20-7 (9-5) At Large
19 Utah 0.81015 20-7 (9-5) At Large
20 Purdue 0.80536 21-7 (9-6) At Large
21 Texas 0.80041 17-10 (8-6) At Large
22 Indiana 0.79779 22-6 (12-3) At Large
23 Texas Tech 0.79304 17-9 (7-7) At Large
24 Texas A&M 0.79280 20-7 (9-5) SEC
25 Dayton 0.79166 21-5 (11-3) Atlantic 10
26 Kentucky 0.79033 20-7 (10-4) At Large
27 Seton Hall 0.77876 18-7 (8-5) At Large
28 Notre Dame 0.77813 18-8 (9-5) At Large
29 USC 0.77725 19-7 (8-5) At Large
30 Pittsburgh 0.77586 19-7 (8-6) At Large
31 California 0.77582 18-8 (8-5) At Large
32 South Carolina 0.77500 22-5 (9-5) At Large
33 St Joseph’s PA 0.77209 22-5 (11-3) At Large
34 Butler 0.77016 18-9 (7-8) At Large
35 Michigan 0.76406 19-8 (9-5) At Large
36 Providence 0.75879 19-8 (7-7) At Large
37 Hawaii 0.75645 22-3 (11-1) Big West
38 Colorado 0.74500 19-9 (8-7) At Large
39 Syracuse 0.74479 18-10 (8-7) At Large
40 Connecticut 0.74401 19-8 (9-5) American
41 Cincinnati 0.73648 20-8 (10-5) At Large
42 Florida 0.73571 17-10 (8-6) At Large
43 Oregon St 0.73479 15-10 (6-8) At Large
44 Wisconsin 0.72932 16-10 (8-5) At Large
45 Kansas St 0.72520 15-12 (4-10) At Large
46 Creighton 0.72112 17-10 (8-6) At Large
47 Wichita St 0.71689 20-7 (13-2) Missouri Valley
48 Washington 0.71454 16-11 (8-7) At Large
49 St Mary’s CA 0.71330 22-4 (13-3) West Coast
50 Vanderbilt 0.70995 16-11 (8-6) Bubble
51 G Washington 0.70917 19-7 (8-5) Bubble
52 UCLA 0.70695 15-12 (6-8) Bubble
53 Tulsa 0.70670 17-9 (9-5) Bubble
54 Florida St 0.70656 16-11 (6-9) Bubble
55 Alabama 0.70530 16-10 (7-7) Bubble
56 VA Commonwealth 0.70394 20-7 (12-2) Bubble
57 Ark Little Rock 0.70129 24-3 (14-2) Sun Belt
58 Stanford 0.69946 13-12 (6-8) Bubble
59 Georgia Tech 0.69710 15-12 (5-9) Bubble
60 Clemson 0.69548 16-11 (9-6) Bubble
61 Gonzaga 0.69447 21-7 (13-3)
62 St Bonaventure 0.69392 18-7 (10-4)
63 Marquette 0.69382 17-10 (6-8)
64 San Diego St 0.69233 19-7 (12-1) Mountain West
65 Ohio St 0.68778 18-10 (10-5)
66 Temple 0.68160 16-9 (10-3)
67 Houston 0.67555 19-7 (9-5)
68 Virginia Tech 0.67243 14-13 (6-8)
69 Georgia 0.67238 14-11 (7-7)
70 Northwestern 0.67167 17-10 (5-9)
71 Valparaiso 0.67167 23-5 (13-2) Horizon League
72 LSU 0.67085 16-11 (9-5)
73 Arizona St 0.66748 14-13 (4-10)
74 Georgetown 0.66532 14-14 (7-8)
75 Mississippi 0.65829 17-10 (7-7)
76 NC State 0.65827 14-13 (4-10)
77 Monmouth NJ 0.65161 22-6 (14-3) MAAC
78 Davidson 0.64281 16-9 (8-6)
79 Evansville 0.63698 22-7 (11-5)
80 Chattanooga 0.63542 24-5 (13-3) Southern
81 Akron 0.62304 21-6 (10-4) Mid-American
82 Oklahoma St 0.62234 12-15 (3-11)
83 Grand Canyon 0.62208 24-4 (10-2) DQ: Transition
84 UNC Wilmington 0.61923 21-6 (13-3) Colonial Athletic
85 UAB 0.61660 21-5 (11-2) Conference USA
86 BYU 0.61653 21-8 (12-4)
87 Tennessee 0.61606 13-14 (6-8)
88 Penn St 0.61539 14-13 (5-9)
89 Nebraska 0.61340 14-14 (6-9)
90 Arkansas 0.61115 13-14 (6-8)
91 Wake Forest 0.61053 10-16 (1-13)
92 Stony Brook 0.60632 22-5 (13-1) America East
93 Yale 0.60480 18-6 (9-1) Ivy League
94 Richmond 0.60465 14-12 (6-8)
95 UC Irvine 0.60180 20-8 (9-3)
96 William & Mary 0.60179 18-9 (10-6)
97 S Dakota St 0.60104 21-7 (10-4) Summit League
98 Rhode Island 0.59971 15-12 (7-7)
99 Hofstra 0.59584 19-8 (11-4)
100 Ohio 0.59325 18-8 (9-5)
101 James Madison 0.59192
102 Boise St 0.58619
103 Princeton 0.58530
104 IPFW 0.58498
105 Illinois 0.58418
106 TCU 0.58363
107 S Illinois 0.58249
108 Mississippi St 0.57881
109 Memphis 0.57835
110 Fresno St 0.57805
111 Northern Iowa 0.57716
112 Long Beach St 0.57667
113 New Mexico 0.57398
114 UNLV 0.57051
115 Duquesne 0.56439
116 Illinois St 0.56299
117 SF Austin 0.55895 20-5 (13-0) Southland
118 Kent 0.55793
119 Oakland 0.55511
120 Auburn 0.54987
121 Col Charleston 0.54263
122 Nevada 0.54251
123 New Mexico St 0.54200 20-9 (11-1) WAC
124 Santa Barbara 0.54161
125 W Kentucky 0.54108
126 MTSU 0.54035
127 Belmont 0.53794 20-9 (12-3) Ohio Valley
128 UT Arlington 0.53681
129 Missouri 0.53635
130 Pepperdine 0.53317
131 N Illinois 0.53251
132 DePaul 0.52946
133 Siena 0.52757
134 Ball St 0.52345
135 Towson 0.52252
136 TAM C. Christi 0.52179
137 Buffalo 0.52072
138 Northeastern 0.51961
139 Columbia 0.51530
140 Louisiana Tech 0.51485
141 Albany NY 0.50983
142 ETSU 0.50863
143 Utah St 0.50661
144 Iona 0.50543
145 Morehead St 0.50406
146 Massachusetts 0.50112
147 Toledo 0.50046
148 Indiana St 0.49916
149 Washington St 0.49910
150 Winthrop 0.49739 20-7 (12-4) Big South
151 NE Omaha 0.49736
152 WI Green Bay 0.49586
153 WI Milwaukee 0.49526
154 Fordham 0.49473
155 Tennessee St 0.49361
156 Minnesota 0.49349
157 Mercer 0.49209
158 Elon 0.49130
159 Tennessee Tech 0.49062
160 Colorado St 0.48660
161 Wright St 0.48640
162 Marshall 0.48586
163 Oral Roberts 0.48577
164 E Michigan 0.48165
165 UCF 0.48083
166 N Dakota St 0.48000
167 Wyoming 0.47801
168 UNC Asheville 0.47640
169 Weber St 0.47219 20-7 (12-2) Big Sky
170 CS Bakersfield 0.47141
171 St Louis 0.46982
172 Loyola-Chicago 0.46928
173 George Mason 0.46894
174 ULM 0.46662
175 Missouri St 0.46556
176 Detroit 0.46458
177 ULL 0.46436
178 High Point 0.46285
179 C Michigan 0.46198
180 North Florida 0.46075 20-10 (9-4) Atlantic Sun
181 East Carolina 0.45821
182 Old Dominion 0.45779
183 St John’s 0.45766
184 Air Force 0.45760
185 Montana 0.45740
186 Georgia St 0.45034
187 IUPUI 0.45004
188 Coastal Car 0.44907
189 Fairfield 0.44810
190 Murray St 0.44641
191 South Dakota 0.44312
192 NJIT 0.43748 DQ: Transition
193 W Michigan 0.43669
194 Furman 0.43513
195 Radford 0.43401
196 FL Gulf Coast 0.43292
197 Vermont 0.43161
198 San Francisco 0.42937
199 UTEP 0.42607
200 Wofford 0.42363
201 Tulane 0.42330
202 Boston College 0.42258
203 Denver 0.42023
204 TN Martin 0.41570
205 South Florida 0.40714
206 Navy 0.40530
207 Boston Univ 0.40316 17-11 (10-5) Patriot League
208 Bowling Green 0.39967
209 Wagner 0.39899 18-9 (11-5) Northeast
210 Bucknell 0.39865
211 E Kentucky 0.39418
212 Portland 0.39119
213 Idaho 0.38919
214 New Hampshire 0.38842
215 La Salle 0.38671
216 Cal Poly SLO 0.38603
217 Gardner Webb 0.38402
218 W Carolina 0.38273
219 Miami OH 0.38247
220 Loy Marymount 0.38063
221 Army 0.37995
222 Hampton 0.37809 15-9 (10-2) MEAC
223 E Washington 0.37494
224 Harvard 0.37388
225 Southern Univ 0.37377 18-9 (10-4) SWAC
226 Charlotte 0.37326
227 Manhattan 0.36997
228 South Alabama 0.36579
229 Canisius 0.36522
230 Ga Southern 0.36394
231 North Dakota 0.36354
232 Santa Clara 0.36236
233 Delaware 0.35645
234 Lehigh 0.35483
235 Rutgers 0.35482
236 TX Southern 0.35301
237 St Peter’s 0.35078
238 Colgate 0.34662
239 Austin Peay 0.34618
240 Penn 0.34616
241 Samford 0.34602
242 Sam Houston St 0.34530
243 UNC Greensboro 0.34468
244 Rider 0.34348
245 W Illinois 0.34347
246 Houston Bap 0.34112
247 S Carolina St 0.34061
248 Montana St 0.33898
249 Arkansas St 0.33567
250 UC Davis 0.33559
251 CS Northridge 0.33419
252 CS Sacramento 0.33097
253 Texas St 0.32908
254 UC Riverside 0.32891
255 San Jose St 0.32802
256 E Illinois 0.32688
257 Drexel 0.32591
258 Youngstown St 0.32453
259 Norfolk St 0.32388
260 Cornell 0.32344
261 Idaho St 0.32162
262 Jacksonville 0.32097
263 N Kentucky 0.32045
264 North Texas 0.31891
265 Cleveland St 0.31862
266 Jackson St 0.31537
267 Rice 0.31456
268 Incarnate Word 0.31396
269 Kennesaw 0.31377
270 Florida Intl 0.31104
271 San Diego 0.30986
272 F Dickinson 0.30947
273 Pacific 0.30859
274 Lipscomb 0.30769
275 Appalachian St 0.30411
276 Liberty 0.30357
277 Seattle 0.30232
278 CS Fullerton 0.30222
279 Troy 0.30064
280 Missouri KC 0.29686
281 Dartmouth 0.29639
282 Drake 0.29617
283 Utah Valley 0.29127
284 Long Island 0.29071
285 Quinnipiac 0.28908
286 Portland St 0.28882
287 Loyola MD 0.28397
288 St Francis PA 0.28024
289 Mt St Mary’s 0.28021
290 Holy Cross 0.27814
291 Campbell 0.27655
292 Bradley 0.27652
293 St Francis NY 0.27599
294 MA Lowell 0.27292
295 Charleston So 0.27275
296 FL Atlantic 0.26916
297 Brown 0.26791
298 Citadel 0.26650
299 Southern Miss 0.26331
300 Savannah St 0.26101
301 American Univ 0.25499
302 Alcorn St 0.25140 DQ: APR
303 Edwardsville 0.24746
304 Sacred Heart 0.23982
305 Niagara 0.23665
306 N Colorado 0.23451
307 Presbyterian 0.23372
308 VMI 0.22994
309 Maine 0.22761
310 Howard 0.22431
311 Binghamton 0.22259
312 SC Upstate 0.22117
313 Robert Morris 0.21918
314 Bethune-Cookman 0.21852
315 Stetson 0.21637
316 Longwood 0.21431
317 Marist 0.21146
318 IL Chicago 0.20584
319 NC Central 0.20176
320 NC A&T 0.20163
321 MD E Shore 0.19744
322 Hartford 0.19483
323 New Orleans 0.19472
324 Jacksonville St 0.18989
325 Lafayette 0.18975
326 Alabama St 0.18771
327 Abilene Chr 0.18425
328 UMBC 0.17819
329 Lamar 0.16843
330 Northern Arizona 0.16674
331 Alabama A&M 0.16382
332 UT San Antonio 0.16225
333 Cent Arkansas 0.16056
334 Coppin St 0.15600
335 UTRGV 0.14470
336 Bryant 0.14383
337 Southern Utah 0.13570
338 SE Louisiana 0.12926
339 Morgan St 0.12793
340 Delaware St 0.12647
341 Ark Pine Bluff 0.12208
342 Nicholls St 0.11820
343 Northwestern LA 0.10902
344 MS Valley St 0.10798
345 Florida A&M 0.10390
346 McNeese St 0.09893
347 Central Conn 0.07903
348 Prairie View 0.07854
349 SE Missouri St 0.07714
350 Grambling 0.05294
351 Chicago St 0.01366
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