In the Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) model, one of the perceived challenges is understanding the error associated with the resulting posterior RAPM value a player receives. In a previous post, we noted that RAPM is a Bayesian model in which we assume that “player contribution” can be estimated through weighted offensive ratings conditioned on the…
With the new year coming up, we will be posting our NCAA Rankings based on single-season, non-prior induced, metrics for predicting who should make the NCAA tournament. Every year, we typically score between 65 and 68 teams correct; last year being a bust with 64 teams. As a side note, three of the four missed…
As a kid growing up in the Los Angeles area, playing in AAU, the Nike leagues, and the Marmonte; we had a team that was a little ahead of its time: take three’s, switch everything, run teams into the ground by scoring before the defense was set, and force every opponent shot in the short…
As of the morning of November 20th, the Four Factors line for the 7-9 Dallas Mavericks read off as follows: Effective Field Goal Percentage: 0.527 (8th in the league) Turnover Percentage: 14.4 (28th in the league) Offensive Rebound Percentage: 22.6 (18th in the league) Free Throw Rate: 0.22 (7th in the league) Opponent eFG%: 0.527…
The terms offensive rating and defensive rating refers to the amount of points scored by a team and by the team’s opponents, respectively, over 100 possessions. The normalization to 100 possessions allows for the ability to compare teams as pace of games can skew points per game comparisons. Both ratings are still considered box score…
In a recent post, we identified the Colley Matrix methodology for ranking NBA teams. The methodology provided insight but abused the originating statistical construct in an effort to enforce a correlated, solvable, set of equations to identify a “probability” of winning. Unfortunately, we witnessed that not only were those statistical assumptions violated, but the resulting…
Defensive rating, a box score calculation, is an estimation procedure that attempts to identify the points per 100 possessions that an NBA player yields in a game. In this calculation, a player’s defensive rating is effectively eighty percent of their team’s defensive rating plus twenty percent of defensive points per scoring possessions when on the…
In 2002, Wes Colley (Princeton) developed a methodology that became a part of College Football BCS rankings lore: The Colley Method. In his original paper, Colley claims that his method is “bias free” for estimating the ranking of a team given a particular schedule. The resulting values for each team is identified as a ranking…
Warning: Lots of Math Ahead… With the introduction of Player Efficiency Rating (PER), John Hollinger constructed a methodology for comparing the relative accomplishments of players across leagues, as well as across years. While being commonly viewed as complex and unidentifiable, the idea is relatively simple: produce a value for each player such that it captures their personal…
Over the past couple decades, we have heard effectively the same complaint that the NBA’s Western Conference is simply too tough and that the Eastern Conference teams have it relatively easy. During the last decade, it’s the primary reason that people dismiss LeBron James’ run through seven consecutive NBA finals as a result of the…
Squared Statistics: Understanding Basketball Analytics 