As another three days have passed, only 76 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball games have been played. In total, 8 of the 76 games involved ranked opponents; one of which resulted in a #12 Miami 64 – 61 victory over #3 Virginia on February 22nd. With only seven days before the first Conference Tournament (Patriot League), the shuffling seems to get a little slower compared to the volatile swings over January and through the beginning of March.

In this edition, we update the rankings based on these games and give insight to the our predicted state of the NCAA tournament entries.

Of the 32 conferences, only 14 conferences have a team in our Top 68 rankings. Due to this, there are 18 teams outside of the Top 68; meaning that the only entrant for their conference will be through the conference tournament. These 18 teams push the Top 68 list down to a Top 50 list, which in turn forces four more conferences (Horizon League, Mountain West, Sun Belt, WAC) out of the tournament picture and into the “win the Conference Tournament or else” list. These four teams push the Top 50 list down to a Top-46 list. Therefore forcing 22 conference tournaments to be the be-all-end-all tournament for majority of D-I.

The 10 conferences with effectively guaranteed at-large bids are not much of a surprise: Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, ACC, Pac-12, SEC, Atlantic-10, Big West, American, and Missouri Valley. Of these 10 conferences, two have a single team in the Top-46: Big West (Hawaii) and Missouri Valley (Wichita State). This means if these teams fail to win their conference tournament, two more teams are thrust onto the Bubble.

This up-coming weekend, we will give an in-depth look at all 32 conferences.

March Madness Current Entrants:

Using the current games played, the locations of the games, and the disparity of scores, we are able to build out a current state of the 2016 March Madness Tournament.

Rules: In order to make the tournament, a team must win their conference tournament, win the Ivy League regular season, or become an “at-large” bid that is selected based on merit by an NCAA committee.

In this post, we give an updated rankings for all 351 NCAA Division I teams. But first, we identify the current teams on pace (projected by our models) for becoming conference champions and “at-large” bids.

It should be noted that our rankings will include the suspended Southern Methodist University, whereas the AP Top 25 Coaches’ Poll does not include the Mustangs. Also, in recent light of team discipline, Louisville has also been disqualified from the post-season.

Other Teams Disqualified: Abilene Christian, Grand Canyon, Incarnate Word, Mass – Lowell, Northern Kentucky, NJIT (Transition to Division 1); Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson (NCAA Violations: APR); Missouri, Pacific, Southern Mississippi (Self-Imposed)

Fitting our models, we find that there is a 0.5477 r-squared, indicating an “O.K. but no-where predictive” fit to the games played. Note that an r-squared value of 0.25 typically indicates coin flips. Using the rankings as determination for conference winners, we have the following teams with automatic bids:

1. America East: Stony Brook (23-5, 14-1)
2. American: Connecticut (19-8, 9-5)
3. Atlantic 10: Dayton (22-5, 12-3)
4. Atlantic Coast: Miami (22-5, 11-4)
5. Atlantic Sun: North Florida (20-10, 9-4)
6. Big 12: Kansas (24-4, 12-3)
7. Big East: Villanova (24-3, 13-1)
8. Big Sky: Weber State (20-7, 12-2)
9. Big South: Winthrop (20-7, 12-4)
10. Big Ten: Michigan State (23-5, 10-5)
11. Big West: Hawaii (22-3, 11-1)
12. Colonial Athletic: UNC – Wilmington (21-6, 13-3)
13. Conference USA: UAB (22-5, 12-2)
14. Horizon League: Valparaiso (24-5, 14-2)
15. Ivy League: Princeton (18-5, 8-1)
16. Metro Atlantic: Monmouth (23-6, 15-3)
17. Mid-American: Akron (21-7, 10-5)
18. Mid-Eastern: Hampton (16-9, 11-2)
19. Missouri Valley: Wichita State (21-7, 14-2)
20. Mountain West: San Diego State (20-7, 13-1)
21. Northeast: Wagner (18-9, 11-5)
22. Ohio Valley: Belmont (20-9, 12-3)
23. Pac-12: Oregon (21-6, 10-4)
24. Patriot League: Bucknell (15-12, 12-4)
25. Southeastern: Kentucky (21-7, 11-4)
26. Southern: Chattanooga (24-5, 13-3)
27. Southland: Stephen F. Austin (21-5, 14-0)
28. Southwestern Athletic: Texas Southern (14-12, 13-1)
29. Summit League: South Dakota State (21-7, 10-4)
30. Sun Belt: Arkansas Little Rock (24-3, 14-2)
31. West Coast: St. Mary’s (22-4, 13-3)
32. Western Athletic: New Mexico State (20-9, 11-1)

Dropped Out: Virginia (21-5, 10-4), Texas A&M (20-7, 9-5), Yale (18-6, 9-1), Boston University (17-11, 10-5), Southern (18-9, 10-4)

Jumped In: Miami (FL), Kentucky, Princeton, Bucknell, Texas Southern

The remaining 36 “at-large” teams are then the top 36 teams in our rankings. These 36 teams are given as:

1. Xavier (24-3, 12-3)
2. Oklahoma (21-5, 9-5)
3. West Virginia (21-7, 10-5)
4. North Carolina (22-5, 11-3)
5. Virginia (21-5, 10-4)
6. Maryland (23-5, 11-4)
7. Iowa (20-6, 11-3)
8. Arizona (22-5, 10-4)
9. Duke (20-7, 9-5)
10. Baylor (20-8, 9-6)
11. Utah (21-7, 10-5)
12. Iowa State (19-9, 8-7)
13. Texas (18-10, 9-6)
14. Purdue (21-7, 9-6)
15. Indiana (22-6, 11-3)
16. Texas Tech (18-9, 8-7)
17. Texas A&M (20-7 (9-5)
18. California (19-8, 9-5)
19. Notre Dame (18-8, 9-5)
20. Seton Hall (19-7, 9-5)
21. Pittsburgh (19-7, 8-6)
22. St. Joseph’s (22-5, 11-3)
23. South Carolina (22-5, 9-5)
24. Butler (18-9, 7-8)
25. USC (19-8, 8-6)
26. Providence (19-8, 7-7)
27. Michigan (19-9, 9-6)
28. Syracuse (18-10, 8-7)
29. Colorado (19-9, 8-7)
30. Oregon State (15-10, 6-8)
31. Cincinnati (20-8, 10-5)
32. Wisconsin (17-10, 9-5)
33. Florida (17-11, 8-7)
34. Creighton (17-10, 8-6)
35. Vanderbilt (17-11, 9-6)
36. Kansas State (15-12, 4-10)

DROPPED OUT: Washington (16-11, 8-7)

SNEAKED IN: Vanderbilt

The next set of teams are our current bubble teams. These are teams that are close to making the NCAA Tournament but are on the outside looking in.

1. Tulsa (19-9, 11-5)
2. Washington (16-11, 8-7)
3. George Washington (19-7, 8-5)
4. Georgia Tech (16-12, 6-9)
5. UCLA (15-12, 6-8)
6. Florida State (16-11, 6-9)
7. VCU (20-7, 12-2)
8. Stanford (13-12, 6-8)
9. Alabama (16-11, 7-8)
10. Gonzaga (21-7, 13-3

FLOATED OUT OF BUBBLE: Clemson (16-12, 9-7)

CLIMBED INTO BUBBLE: Gonzaga

The current state of the NCAA Tournament is given as follows:

We note that we are not predicting the field of 68, but rather giving seedings based on play up to today. Our goal is to populate the March Madness tournament with current seedings; to give indication of where teams are sitting as of today. As the conference games continue to play out, the field of 68 will become much clearer.

Rank	Team	Score	Record	MM Position
1	Villanova	0.99884	24-3 (13-1)	Big East
2	Kansas	0.94631	24-4 (12-3)	Big 12
3	Xavier	0.93080	24-3 (12-3)	At Large
4	Oklahoma	0.92395	21-5 (9-5)	At Large
5	Michigan St	0.87765	23-5 (10-5)	Big Ten
6	Miami FL	0.86646	22-5 (11-4)	ACC
7	West Virginia	0.86634	21-7 (10-5)	At Large
8	North Carolina	0.86488	22-5 (11-3)	At Large
9	Virginia	0.86377	21-6 (10-5)	At Large
10	SMU	0.84353	22-4 (10-4)	DQ: Violations
11	Maryland	0.83694	23-5 (11-4)	At Large
12	Louisville	0.83343	21-6 (10-4)	DQ: Self-Imposed
13	Iowa	0.83338	20-6 (11-3)	At Large
14	Oregon	0.83138	21-6 (10-4)	Pac 12
15	Arizona	0.82709	22-5 (10-4)	At Large
16	Duke	0.82639	20-7 (9-5)	At Large
17	Baylor	0.82478	20-8 (9-6)	At Large
18	Utah	0.82220	21-7 (10-5)	At Large
19	Iowa St	0.81853	19-9 (8-7)	At Large
20	Texas	0.80654	18-10 (9-6)	At Large
21	Purdue	0.80531	21-7 (9-6)	At Large
22	Kentucky	0.79817	21-7 (11-4)	SEC
23	Indiana	0.79796	22-6 (12-3)	At Large
24	Texas Tech	0.79672	18-9 (8-7)	At Large
25	Dayton	0.79313	22-5 (12-3)	Atlantic 10
26	Texas A&M	0.79146	20-7 (9-5)	At Large
27	California	0.77994	19-8 (9-5)	At Large
28	Notre Dame	0.77928	18-8 (9-5)	At Large
29	Seton Hall	0.77920	19-7 (9-5)	At Large
30	Pittsburgh	0.77717	19-7 (8-6)	At Large
31	St Joseph’s PA	0.77375	22-5 (11-3)	At Large
32	South Carolina	0.77322	22-5 (9-5)	At Large
33	Butler	0.76988	18-9 (7-8)	At Large
34	USC	0.76779	19-8 (8-6)	At Large
35	Providence	0.75804	19-8 (7-7)	At Large
36	Hawaii	0.75723	22-3 (11-1)	Big West
37	Michigan	0.75632	19-9 (9-6)	At Large
38	Syracuse	0.74623	18-10 (8-7)	At Large
39	Colorado	0.74596	19-9 (8-7)	At Large
40	Connecticut	0.74414	19-8 (9-5)	American
41	Oregon St	0.73801	15-10 (6-8)	At Large
42	Cincinnati	0.73647	20-8 (10-5)	At Large
43	Wisconsin	0.73514	17-10 (9-5)	At Large
44	Florida	0.72539	17-11 (8-7)	At Large
45	Wichita St	0.72083	21-7 (14-2)	Missouri Valley
46	Creighton	0.72078	17-10 (8-6)	At Large
47	Vanderbilt	0.72035	17-11 (9-6)	At Large
48	Kansas St	0.71870	15-13 (4-11)	At Large
49	Tulsa	0.71834	19-9 (11-5)	Bubble
50	Washington	0.71541	16-11 (8-7)	Bubble
51	St Mary’s CA	0.71421	22-4 (13-3)	West Coast
52	G Washington	0.71188	20-7 (9-5)	Bubble
53	Georgia Tech	0.70744	16-12 (6-9)	Bubble
54	UCLA	0.70682	15-12 (6-8)	Bubble
55	Florida St	0.70558	16-11 (6-9)	Bubble
56	VA Commonwealth	0.70477	20-7 (12-2)	Bubble
57	Ark Little Rock	0.70231	24-3 (14-2)	Sun Belt
58	Stanford	0.70211	13-12 (6-8)	Bubble
59	San Diego St	0.69643	20-7 (13-1)	Mountain West
60	Alabama	0.69466	16-11 (7-8)	Bubble
61	Gonzaga	0.69432	21-7 (13-3)	Bubble
62	St Bonaventure	0.69315	18-7 (10-4)
63	Marquette	0.69228	17-10 (6-8)
64	Clemson	0.68451	16-12 (9-7)
65	Ohio St	0.68226	18-11 (10-6)
66	Temple	0.68020	17-10 (11-4)
67	Virginia Tech	0.67578	15-13 (7-8)
68	Valparaiso	0.67527	24-5 (14-2)	Horizon League
69	Northwestern	0.67165	17-10 (5-9)
70	Georgia	0.67067	14-11 (7-7)
71	Arizona St	0.66604	14-13 (4-10)
72	Georgetown	0.66529	14-14 (7-8)
73	Houston	0.66161	19-8 (9-6)
74	Mississippi	0.66049	18-10 (8-7)
75	NC State	0.65671	14-13 (4-10)
76	LSU	0.65585	16-12 (9-6)
77	Davidson	0.65141	17-9 (9-6)
78	Monmouth NJ	0.64993	23-6 (15-3)	MAAC
79	Evansville	0.63798	23-7 (12-5)
80	Chattanooga	0.63397	24-5 (13-3)	Southern
81	Princeton	0.62996	18-5 (8-1)	Ivy League
82	UAB	0.62471	22-5 (12-2)	Conference USA
83	Arkansas	0.62055	14-14 (7-8)
84	Oklahoma St	0.62031	12-15 (3-11)
85	Grand Canyon	0.61970	24-4 (10-2)	DQ: Transition
86	UNC Wilmington	0.61710	21-6 (13-3)	Colonial Athletic
87	BYU	0.61651	21-8 (12-4)
88	Wake Forest	0.61588	11-16 (2-13)
89	Tennessee	0.61544	13-14 (6-8)
90	Penn St	0.61490	14-13 (5-9)
91	Nebraska	0.61174	14-14 (6-9)
92	Yale	0.61014	18-6 (9-1)
93	Stony Brook	0.60936	23-5 (14-1)	America East
94	Richmond	0.60426	14-12 (6-8)
95	UC Irvine	0.60150	20-8 (9-3)
96	William & Mary	0.60030	18-9 (10-6)
97	Hofstra	0.60013	20-8 (12-4)
98	S Dakota St	0.59900	21-7 (10-4)	Summit League
99	Boise St	0.59639	18-10 (9-6)
100	James Madison	0.58952	20-9 (10-6)
101	Rhode Island	0.58914
102	IPFW	0.58519
103	Akron	0.58457	21-7 (10-5)	Mid-American
104	S Illinois	0.58247
105	TCU	0.57824
106	Illinois	0.57800
107	Fresno St	0.57668
108	Mississippi St	0.57661
109	Long Beach St	0.57652
110	Northern Iowa	0.57642
111	Memphis	0.57350
112	Ohio	0.57254
113	Duquesne	0.56477
114	Illinois St	0.56204
115	UNLV	0.56152
116	New Mexico	0.56062
117	SF Austin	0.56041	21-5 (14-0)	Southland
118	Oakland	0.55682
119	Kent	0.55403
120	Auburn	0.54827
121	W Kentucky	0.54256
122	Nevada	0.54231
123	Col Charleston	0.54113
124	New Mexico St	0.53933	20-9 (11-1)	WAC
125	Santa Barbara	0.53911
126	Belmont	0.53669	20-9 (12-3)	Ohio Valley
127	UT Arlington	0.53444
128	Pepperdine	0.53292
129	MTSU	0.53101
130	Missouri	0.52855
131	DePaul	0.52824
132	Buffalo	0.52814
133	TAM C. Christi	0.52383
134	Towson	0.51986
135	Ball St	0.51791
136	Columbia	0.51504
137	Iona	0.51338
138	Siena	0.51244
139	Northeastern	0.51191
140	Louisiana Tech	0.51158
141	Toledo	0.50885
142	Massachusetts	0.50818
143	ETSU	0.50791
144	Utah St	0.50757
145	N Illinois	0.50510
146	Albany NY	0.50453
147	Morehead St	0.50282
148	Colorado St	0.50122
149	WI Milwaukee	0.50022
150	WI Green Bay	0.49837
151	Winthrop	0.49738	20-7 (12-4)	Big South
152	N Dakota St	0.49698
153	Minnesota	0.49596
154	NE Omaha	0.49529
155	Washington St	0.49426
156	Indiana St	0.49404
157	Fordham	0.49119
158	Tennessee Tech	0.49047
159	Mercer	0.49013
160	Tennessee St	0.48981
161	Elon	0.48948
162	E Michigan	0.48814
163	Wright St	0.48474
164	Oral Roberts	0.48258
165	Marshall	0.48165
166	Loyola-Chicago	0.47894
167	Wyoming	0.47766
168	UCF	0.47746
169	UNC Asheville	0.47519
170	Weber St	0.47342	20-7 (12-2)	Big Sky
171	C Michigan	0.47264
172	CS Bakersfield	0.46974
173	St Louis	0.46733
174	ULM	0.46520
175	Detroit	0.46213
176	ULL	0.46195
177	High Point	0.46127
178	Montana	0.45910
179	North Florida	0.45813	20-10 (9-4)	Atlantic Sun
180	George Mason	0.45701
181	Air Force	0.45654
182	East Carolina	0.45531
183	St John’s	0.45488
184	Old Dominion	0.45433
185	Missouri St	0.45309
186	Coastal Car	0.44826
187	Murray St	0.44524
188	Fairfield	0.44400
189	Georgia St	0.43399
190	Furman	0.43315
191	NJIT	0.43267
192	Radford	0.43216
193	South Dakota	0.43130
194	IUPUI	0.43023
195	FL Gulf Coast	0.42917
196	San Francisco	0.42865
197	W Michigan	0.42821
198	Denver	0.42733
199	Vermont	0.42688
200	UTEP	0.42453
201	Wofford	0.42158
202	Tulane	0.42004
203	Bowling Green	0.41557
204	TN Martin	0.41397
205	Boston College	0.40797
206	Bucknell	0.40754	15-12 (12-4)	Patriot League
207	South Florida	0.40264
208	Navy	0.40101
209	Miami OH	0.40005
210	Wagner	0.39405	18-9 (11-5)	Northeast
211	E Kentucky	0.39197
212	Portland	0.39151
213	Army	0.38771
214	Idaho	0.38768
215	Cal Poly SLO	0.38433
216	Gardner Webb	0.38288
217	New Hampshire	0.38126
218	Hampton	0.38122	16-9 (11-2)	MEAC
219	W Carolina	0.38112
220	Loy Marymount	0.38105
221	Boston Univ	0.38061
222	La Salle	0.37851
223	Ga Southern	0.37494
224	E Washington	0.37429
225	Charlotte	0.36993
226	Harvard	0.36736
227	North Dakota	0.36446
228	South Alabama	0.36319
229	Santa Clara	0.36155
230	Manhattan	0.36009
231	Canisius	0.35944
232	St Peter’s	0.35580
233	Lehigh	0.35457
234	Delaware	0.35431
235	TX Southern	0.35402	14-12 (13-1)	SWAC
236	Southern Univ	0.34877
237	Colgate	0.34865
238	Austin Peay	0.34496
239	Samford	0.34420
240	S Carolina St	0.34409
241	Sam Houston St	0.34300
242	W Illinois	0.34202
243	UNC Greensboro	0.34161
244	Rutgers	0.34053
245	Montana St	0.33939
246	Penn	0.33884
247	UC Davis	0.33520
248	Arkansas St	0.33437
249	CS Northridge	0.33211
250	CS Sacramento	0.33109
251	Incarnate Word	0.32903
252	Texas St	0.32763
253	Norfolk St	0.32692
254	UC Riverside	0.32670
255	San Jose St	0.32634
256	E Illinois	0.32479
257	Rider	0.32381
258	Houston Bap	0.32335
259	Drexel	0.32306
260	Idaho St	0.32207
261	N Kentucky	0.31820
262	Cornell	0.31806
263	Jacksonville	0.31765
264	Youngstown St	0.31764
265	North Texas	0.31547
266	Jackson St	0.31300
267	Rice	0.31157
268	Cleveland St	0.31082
269	San Diego	0.30922
270	Kennesaw	0.30853
271	Pacific	0.30741
272	Florida Intl	0.30697
273	F Dickinson	0.30567
274	Lipscomb	0.30496
275	Appalachian St	0.30196
276	Liberty	0.30155
277	CS Fullerton	0.30106
278	Seattle	0.30093
279	Troy	0.29848
280	Drake	0.29554
281	Missouri KC	0.29488
282	Dartmouth	0.29044
283	Utah Valley	0.29034
284	Portland St	0.28824
285	Long Island	0.28644
286	Mt St Mary’s	0.27583
287	Quinnipiac	0.27528
288	St Francis PA	0.27516
289	Campbell	0.27478
290	Bradley	0.27392
291	Loyola MD	0.27305
292	St Francis NY	0.27081
293	Charleston So	0.26916
294	FL Atlantic	0.26675
295	MA Lowell	0.26486
296	Citadel	0.26427
297	Holy Cross	0.26345
298	American Univ	0.26066
299	Southern Miss	0.26017
300	Savannah St	0.25894
301	Edwardsville	0.24613
302	Alcorn St	0.23697
303	Brown	0.23477
304	N Colorado	0.23430
305	Sacred Heart	0.23347
306	Presbyterian	0.23092
307	Niagara	0.22879
308	VMI	0.22772
309	Bethune-Cookman	0.22412
310	Marist	0.22231
311	Maine	0.21848
312	Binghamton	0.21654
313	SC Upstate	0.21578
314	Howard	0.21508
315	Robert Morris	0.21427
316	Longwood	0.21065
317	Alabama St	0.20551
318	IL Chicago	0.20126
319	Stetson	0.19994
320	NC Central	0.19829
321	Jacksonville St	0.19251
322	New Orleans	0.19245
323	Abilene Chr	0.19002
324	Alabama A&M	0.18789
325	Hartford	0.18714
326	NC A&T	0.18341
327	Lafayette	0.17967
328	MD E Shore	0.17822
329	UMBC	0.17160
330	Cent Arkansas	0.16774
331	Northern Arizona	0.16659
332	Lamar	0.16444
333	UT San Antonio	0.16028
334	Coppin St	0.14789
335	Morgan St	0.14574
336	UTRGV	0.14365
337	Bryant	0.13815
338	Southern Utah	0.13418
339	Ark Pine Bluff	0.12301
340	Northwestern LA	0.12298
341	Delaware St	0.12181
342	Florida A&M	0.11905
343	SE Louisiana	0.11577
344	Nicholls St	0.09652
345	MS Valley St	0.09613
346	Prairie View	0.09602
347	McNeese St	0.08271
348	SE Missouri St	0.07829
349	Central Conn	0.07085
350	Grambling	0.05396
351	Chicago St	0.01381