March Madness Bracketology: February 23rd Edition

 

As another three days have passed, only 76 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball games have been played. In total, 8 of the 76 games involved ranked opponents; one of which resulted in a #12 Miami 64 – 61 victory over #3 Virginia on February 22nd. With only seven days before the first Conference Tournament (Patriot League), the shuffling seems to get a little slower compared to the volatile swings over January and through the beginning of March.

In this edition, we update the rankings based on these games and give insight to the our predicted state of the NCAA tournament entries.

Of the 32 conferences, only 14 conferences have a team in our Top 68 rankings. Due to this, there are 18 teams outside of the Top 68; meaning that the only entrant for their conference will be through the conference tournament. These 18 teams push the Top 68 list down to a Top 50 list, which in turn forces four more conferences (Horizon League, Mountain West, Sun Belt, WAC) out of the tournament picture and into the “win the Conference Tournament or else” list. These four teams push the Top 50 list down to a Top-46 list. Therefore forcing 22 conference tournaments to be the be-all-end-all tournament for majority of D-I.

The 10 conferences with effectively guaranteed at-large bids are not much of a surprise: Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, ACC, Pac-12, SEC, Atlantic-10, Big West, American, and Missouri Valley. Of these 10 conferences, two have a single team in the Top-46: Big West (Hawaii) and Missouri Valley (Wichita State). This means if these teams fail to win their conference tournament, two more teams are thrust onto the Bubble.

This up-coming weekend, we will give an in-depth look at all 32 conferences.

March Madness Current Entrants:

Using the current games played, the locations of the games, and the disparity of scores, we are able to build out a current state of the 2016 March Madness Tournament.

Rules: In order to make the tournament, a team must win their conference tournament, win the Ivy League regular season, or become an “at-large” bid that is selected based on merit by an NCAA committee.

In this post, we give an updated rankings for all 351 NCAA Division I teams. But first, we identify the current teams on pace (projected by our models) for becoming conference champions and “at-large” bids.

It should be noted that our rankings will include the suspended Southern Methodist University, whereas the AP Top 25 Coaches’ Poll does not include the Mustangs. Also, in recent light of team discipline, Louisville has also been disqualified from the post-season.

Other Teams Disqualified: Abilene Christian, Grand Canyon, Incarnate Word, Mass – Lowell, Northern Kentucky, NJIT (Transition to Division 1); Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson (NCAA Violations: APR); Missouri, Pacific, Southern Mississippi (Self-Imposed)

Fitting our models, we find that there is a 0.5477 r-squared, indicating an “O.K. but no-where predictive” fit to the games played. Note that an r-squared value of 0.25 typically indicates coin flips. Using the rankings as determination for conference winners, we have the following teams with automatic bids:

  1. America East: Stony Brook (23-5, 14-1)
  2. American: Connecticut (19-8, 9-5)
  3. Atlantic 10: Dayton (22-5, 12-3)
  4. Atlantic Coast: Miami (22-5, 11-4)
  5. Atlantic Sun: North Florida (20-10, 9-4)
  6. Big 12: Kansas (24-4, 12-3)
  7. Big East: Villanova (24-3, 13-1)
  8. Big Sky: Weber State (20-7, 12-2)
  9. Big South: Winthrop (20-7, 12-4)
  10. Big Ten: Michigan State (23-5, 10-5)
  11. Big West: Hawaii (22-3, 11-1)
  12. Colonial Athletic: UNC – Wilmington (21-6, 13-3)
  13. Conference USA: UAB (22-5, 12-2)
  14. Horizon League: Valparaiso (24-5, 14-2)
  15. Ivy League: Princeton (18-5, 8-1)
  16. Metro Atlantic: Monmouth (23-6, 15-3)
  17. Mid-American: Akron (21-7, 10-5)
  18. Mid-Eastern: Hampton (16-9, 11-2)
  19. Missouri Valley: Wichita State (21-7, 14-2)
  20. Mountain West: San Diego State (20-7, 13-1)
  21. Northeast: Wagner (18-9, 11-5)
  22. Ohio Valley: Belmont (20-9, 12-3)
  23. Pac-12: Oregon (21-6, 10-4)
  24. Patriot League: Bucknell (15-12, 12-4)
  25. Southeastern: Kentucky (21-7, 11-4)
  26. Southern: Chattanooga (24-5, 13-3)
  27. Southland: Stephen F. Austin (21-5, 14-0)
  28. Southwestern Athletic: Texas Southern (14-12, 13-1)
  29. Summit League: South Dakota State (21-7, 10-4)
  30. Sun Belt: Arkansas Little Rock (24-3, 14-2)
  31. West Coast: St. Mary’s (22-4, 13-3)
  32. Western Athletic: New Mexico State (20-9, 11-1)

Dropped Out: Virginia (21-5, 10-4), Texas A&M (20-7, 9-5), Yale (18-6, 9-1), Boston University (17-11, 10-5), Southern (18-9, 10-4)

Jumped In: Miami (FL), Kentucky, Princeton, Bucknell, Texas Southern

The remaining 36 “at-large” teams are then the top 36 teams in our rankings. These 36 teams are given as:

  1. Xavier (24-3, 12-3)
  2. Oklahoma (21-5, 9-5)
  3. West Virginia (21-7, 10-5)
  4. North Carolina (22-5, 11-3)
  5. Virginia (21-5, 10-4)
  6. Maryland (23-5, 11-4)
  7. Iowa (20-6, 11-3)
  8. Arizona (22-5, 10-4)
  9. Duke (20-7, 9-5)
  10. Baylor (20-8, 9-6)
  11. Utah (21-7, 10-5)
  12. Iowa State (19-9, 8-7)
  13. Texas (18-10, 9-6)
  14. Purdue (21-7, 9-6)
  15. Indiana (22-6, 11-3)
  16. Texas Tech (18-9, 8-7)
  17. Texas A&M (20-7 (9-5)
  18. California (19-8, 9-5)
  19. Notre Dame (18-8, 9-5)
  20. Seton Hall (19-7, 9-5)
  21. Pittsburgh (19-7, 8-6)
  22. St. Joseph’s (22-5, 11-3)
  23. South Carolina (22-5, 9-5)
  24. Butler (18-9, 7-8)
  25. USC (19-8, 8-6)
  26. Providence (19-8, 7-7)
  27. Michigan (19-9, 9-6)
  28. Syracuse (18-10, 8-7)
  29. Colorado (19-9, 8-7)
  30. Oregon State (15-10, 6-8)
  31. Cincinnati (20-8, 10-5)
  32. Wisconsin (17-10, 9-5)
  33. Florida (17-11, 8-7)
  34. Creighton (17-10, 8-6)
  35. Vanderbilt (17-11, 9-6)
  36. Kansas State (15-12, 4-10)

DROPPED OUT: Washington (16-11, 8-7)

SNEAKED IN: Vanderbilt

The next set of teams are our current bubble teams. These are teams that are close to making the NCAA Tournament but are on the outside looking in.

  1. Tulsa (19-9, 11-5)
  2. Washington (16-11, 8-7)
  3. George Washington (19-7, 8-5)
  4. Georgia Tech (16-12, 6-9)
  5. UCLA (15-12, 6-8)
  6. Florida State (16-11, 6-9)
  7. VCU (20-7, 12-2)
  8. Stanford (13-12, 6-8)
  9. Alabama (16-11, 7-8)
  10. Gonzaga (21-7, 13-3

FLOATED OUT OF BUBBLE: Clemson (16-12, 9-7)

CLIMBED INTO BUBBLE: Gonzaga

The current state of the NCAA Tournament is given as follows:

MarchMadnessFebruary23rd

NCAA March Madness seedings based on our rankings as of February 23rd, 2016.

We note that we are not predicting the field of 68, but rather giving seedings based on play up to today. Our goal is to populate the March Madness tournament with current seedings; to give indication of where teams are sitting as of today. As the conference games continue to play out, the field of 68 will become much clearer.

Rank Team Score Record MM Position
1 Villanova 0.99884 24-3 (13-1) Big East
2 Kansas 0.94631 24-4 (12-3) Big 12
3 Xavier 0.93080 24-3 (12-3) At Large
4 Oklahoma 0.92395 21-5 (9-5) At Large
5 Michigan St 0.87765 23-5 (10-5) Big Ten
6 Miami FL 0.86646 22-5 (11-4) ACC
7 West Virginia 0.86634 21-7 (10-5) At Large
8 North Carolina 0.86488 22-5 (11-3) At Large
9 Virginia 0.86377 21-6 (10-5) At Large
10 SMU 0.84353 22-4 (10-4) DQ: Violations
11 Maryland 0.83694 23-5 (11-4) At Large
12 Louisville 0.83343 21-6 (10-4) DQ: Self-Imposed
13 Iowa 0.83338 20-6 (11-3) At Large
14 Oregon 0.83138 21-6 (10-4) Pac 12
15 Arizona 0.82709 22-5 (10-4) At Large
16 Duke 0.82639 20-7 (9-5) At Large
17 Baylor 0.82478 20-8 (9-6) At Large
18 Utah 0.82220 21-7 (10-5) At Large
19 Iowa St 0.81853 19-9 (8-7) At Large
20 Texas 0.80654 18-10 (9-6) At Large
21 Purdue 0.80531 21-7 (9-6) At Large
22 Kentucky 0.79817 21-7 (11-4) SEC
23 Indiana 0.79796 22-6 (12-3) At Large
24 Texas Tech 0.79672 18-9 (8-7) At Large
25 Dayton 0.79313 22-5 (12-3) Atlantic 10
26 Texas A&M 0.79146 20-7 (9-5) At Large
27 California 0.77994 19-8 (9-5) At Large
28 Notre Dame 0.77928 18-8 (9-5) At Large
29 Seton Hall 0.77920 19-7 (9-5) At Large
30 Pittsburgh 0.77717 19-7 (8-6) At Large
31 St Joseph’s PA 0.77375 22-5 (11-3) At Large
32 South Carolina 0.77322 22-5 (9-5) At Large
33 Butler 0.76988 18-9 (7-8) At Large
34 USC 0.76779 19-8 (8-6) At Large
35 Providence 0.75804 19-8 (7-7) At Large
36 Hawaii 0.75723 22-3 (11-1) Big West
37 Michigan 0.75632 19-9 (9-6) At Large
38 Syracuse 0.74623 18-10 (8-7) At Large
39 Colorado 0.74596 19-9 (8-7) At Large
40 Connecticut 0.74414 19-8 (9-5) American
41 Oregon St 0.73801 15-10 (6-8) At Large
42 Cincinnati 0.73647 20-8 (10-5) At Large
43 Wisconsin 0.73514 17-10 (9-5) At Large
44 Florida 0.72539 17-11 (8-7) At Large
45 Wichita St 0.72083 21-7 (14-2) Missouri Valley
46 Creighton 0.72078 17-10 (8-6) At Large
47 Vanderbilt 0.72035 17-11 (9-6) At Large
48 Kansas St 0.71870 15-13 (4-11) At Large
49 Tulsa 0.71834 19-9 (11-5) Bubble
50 Washington 0.71541 16-11 (8-7) Bubble
51 St Mary’s CA 0.71421 22-4 (13-3) West Coast
52 G Washington 0.71188 20-7 (9-5) Bubble
53 Georgia Tech 0.70744 16-12 (6-9) Bubble
54 UCLA 0.70682 15-12 (6-8) Bubble
55 Florida St 0.70558 16-11 (6-9) Bubble
56 VA Commonwealth 0.70477 20-7 (12-2) Bubble
57 Ark Little Rock 0.70231 24-3 (14-2) Sun Belt
58 Stanford 0.70211 13-12 (6-8) Bubble
59 San Diego St 0.69643 20-7 (13-1) Mountain West
60 Alabama 0.69466 16-11 (7-8) Bubble
61 Gonzaga 0.69432 21-7 (13-3) Bubble
62 St Bonaventure 0.69315 18-7 (10-4)
63 Marquette 0.69228 17-10 (6-8)
64 Clemson 0.68451 16-12 (9-7)
65 Ohio St 0.68226 18-11 (10-6)
66 Temple 0.68020 17-10 (11-4)
67 Virginia Tech 0.67578 15-13 (7-8)
68 Valparaiso 0.67527 24-5 (14-2) Horizon League
69 Northwestern 0.67165 17-10 (5-9)
70 Georgia 0.67067 14-11 (7-7)
71 Arizona St 0.66604 14-13 (4-10)
72 Georgetown 0.66529 14-14 (7-8)
73 Houston 0.66161 19-8 (9-6)
74 Mississippi 0.66049 18-10 (8-7)
75 NC State 0.65671 14-13 (4-10)
76 LSU 0.65585 16-12 (9-6)
77 Davidson 0.65141 17-9 (9-6)
78 Monmouth NJ 0.64993 23-6 (15-3) MAAC
79 Evansville 0.63798 23-7 (12-5)
80 Chattanooga 0.63397 24-5 (13-3) Southern
81 Princeton 0.62996 18-5 (8-1) Ivy League
82 UAB 0.62471 22-5 (12-2) Conference USA
83 Arkansas 0.62055 14-14 (7-8)
84 Oklahoma St 0.62031 12-15 (3-11)
85 Grand Canyon 0.61970 24-4 (10-2) DQ: Transition
86 UNC Wilmington 0.61710 21-6 (13-3) Colonial Athletic
87 BYU 0.61651 21-8 (12-4)
88 Wake Forest 0.61588 11-16 (2-13)
89 Tennessee 0.61544 13-14 (6-8)
90 Penn St 0.61490 14-13 (5-9)
91 Nebraska 0.61174 14-14 (6-9)
92 Yale 0.61014 18-6 (9-1)
93 Stony Brook 0.60936 23-5 (14-1) America East
94 Richmond 0.60426 14-12 (6-8)
95 UC Irvine 0.60150 20-8 (9-3)
96 William & Mary 0.60030 18-9 (10-6)
97 Hofstra 0.60013 20-8 (12-4)
98 S Dakota St 0.59900 21-7 (10-4) Summit League
99 Boise St 0.59639 18-10 (9-6)
100 James Madison 0.58952 20-9 (10-6)
101 Rhode Island 0.58914
102 IPFW 0.58519
103 Akron 0.58457 21-7 (10-5) Mid-American
104 S Illinois 0.58247
105 TCU 0.57824
106 Illinois 0.57800
107 Fresno St 0.57668
108 Mississippi St 0.57661
109 Long Beach St 0.57652
110 Northern Iowa 0.57642
111 Memphis 0.57350
112 Ohio 0.57254
113 Duquesne 0.56477
114 Illinois St 0.56204
115 UNLV 0.56152
116 New Mexico 0.56062
117 SF Austin 0.56041 21-5 (14-0) Southland
118 Oakland 0.55682
119 Kent 0.55403
120 Auburn 0.54827
121 W Kentucky 0.54256
122 Nevada 0.54231
123 Col Charleston 0.54113
124 New Mexico St 0.53933 20-9 (11-1) WAC
125 Santa Barbara 0.53911
126 Belmont 0.53669 20-9 (12-3) Ohio Valley
127 UT Arlington 0.53444
128 Pepperdine 0.53292
129 MTSU 0.53101
130 Missouri 0.52855
131 DePaul 0.52824
132 Buffalo 0.52814
133 TAM C. Christi 0.52383
134 Towson 0.51986
135 Ball St 0.51791
136 Columbia 0.51504
137 Iona 0.51338
138 Siena 0.51244
139 Northeastern 0.51191
140 Louisiana Tech 0.51158
141 Toledo 0.50885
142 Massachusetts 0.50818
143 ETSU 0.50791
144 Utah St 0.50757
145 N Illinois 0.50510
146 Albany NY 0.50453
147 Morehead St 0.50282
148 Colorado St 0.50122
149 WI Milwaukee 0.50022
150 WI Green Bay 0.49837
151 Winthrop 0.49738 20-7 (12-4) Big South
152 N Dakota St 0.49698
153 Minnesota 0.49596
154 NE Omaha 0.49529
155 Washington St 0.49426
156 Indiana St 0.49404
157 Fordham 0.49119
158 Tennessee Tech 0.49047
159 Mercer 0.49013
160 Tennessee St 0.48981
161 Elon 0.48948
162 E Michigan 0.48814
163 Wright St 0.48474
164 Oral Roberts 0.48258
165 Marshall 0.48165
166 Loyola-Chicago 0.47894
167 Wyoming 0.47766
168 UCF 0.47746
169 UNC Asheville 0.47519
170 Weber St 0.47342 20-7 (12-2) Big Sky
171 C Michigan 0.47264
172 CS Bakersfield 0.46974
173 St Louis 0.46733
174 ULM 0.46520
175 Detroit 0.46213
176 ULL 0.46195
177 High Point 0.46127
178 Montana 0.45910
179 North Florida 0.45813 20-10 (9-4) Atlantic Sun
180 George Mason 0.45701
181 Air Force 0.45654
182 East Carolina 0.45531
183 St John’s 0.45488
184 Old Dominion 0.45433
185 Missouri St 0.45309
186 Coastal Car 0.44826
187 Murray St 0.44524
188 Fairfield 0.44400
189 Georgia St 0.43399
190 Furman 0.43315
191 NJIT 0.43267
192 Radford 0.43216
193 South Dakota 0.43130
194 IUPUI 0.43023
195 FL Gulf Coast 0.42917
196 San Francisco 0.42865
197 W Michigan 0.42821
198 Denver 0.42733
199 Vermont 0.42688
200 UTEP 0.42453
201 Wofford 0.42158
202 Tulane 0.42004
203 Bowling Green 0.41557
204 TN Martin 0.41397
205 Boston College 0.40797
206 Bucknell 0.40754 15-12 (12-4) Patriot League
207 South Florida 0.40264
208 Navy 0.40101
209 Miami OH 0.40005
210 Wagner 0.39405 18-9 (11-5) Northeast
211 E Kentucky 0.39197
212 Portland 0.39151
213 Army 0.38771
214 Idaho 0.38768
215 Cal Poly SLO 0.38433
216 Gardner Webb 0.38288
217 New Hampshire 0.38126
218 Hampton 0.38122 16-9 (11-2) MEAC
219 W Carolina 0.38112
220 Loy Marymount 0.38105
221 Boston Univ 0.38061
222 La Salle 0.37851
223 Ga Southern 0.37494
224 E Washington 0.37429
225 Charlotte 0.36993
226 Harvard 0.36736
227 North Dakota 0.36446
228 South Alabama 0.36319
229 Santa Clara 0.36155
230 Manhattan 0.36009
231 Canisius 0.35944
232 St Peter’s 0.35580
233 Lehigh 0.35457
234 Delaware 0.35431
235 TX Southern 0.35402 14-12 (13-1) SWAC
236 Southern Univ 0.34877
237 Colgate 0.34865
238 Austin Peay 0.34496
239 Samford 0.34420
240 S Carolina St 0.34409
241 Sam Houston St 0.34300
242 W Illinois 0.34202
243 UNC Greensboro 0.34161
244 Rutgers 0.34053
245 Montana St 0.33939
246 Penn 0.33884
247 UC Davis 0.33520
248 Arkansas St 0.33437
249 CS Northridge 0.33211
250 CS Sacramento 0.33109
251 Incarnate Word 0.32903
252 Texas St 0.32763
253 Norfolk St 0.32692
254 UC Riverside 0.32670
255 San Jose St 0.32634
256 E Illinois 0.32479
257 Rider 0.32381
258 Houston Bap 0.32335
259 Drexel 0.32306
260 Idaho St 0.32207
261 N Kentucky 0.31820
262 Cornell 0.31806
263 Jacksonville 0.31765
264 Youngstown St 0.31764
265 North Texas 0.31547
266 Jackson St 0.31300
267 Rice 0.31157
268 Cleveland St 0.31082
269 San Diego 0.30922
270 Kennesaw 0.30853
271 Pacific 0.30741
272 Florida Intl 0.30697
273 F Dickinson 0.30567
274 Lipscomb 0.30496
275 Appalachian St 0.30196
276 Liberty 0.30155
277 CS Fullerton 0.30106
278 Seattle 0.30093
279 Troy 0.29848
280 Drake 0.29554
281 Missouri KC 0.29488
282 Dartmouth 0.29044
283 Utah Valley 0.29034
284 Portland St 0.28824
285 Long Island 0.28644
286 Mt St Mary’s 0.27583
287 Quinnipiac 0.27528
288 St Francis PA 0.27516
289 Campbell 0.27478
290 Bradley 0.27392
291 Loyola MD 0.27305
292 St Francis NY 0.27081
293 Charleston So 0.26916
294 FL Atlantic 0.26675
295 MA Lowell 0.26486
296 Citadel 0.26427
297 Holy Cross 0.26345
298 American Univ 0.26066
299 Southern Miss 0.26017
300 Savannah St 0.25894
301 Edwardsville 0.24613
302 Alcorn St 0.23697
303 Brown 0.23477
304 N Colorado 0.23430
305 Sacred Heart 0.23347
306 Presbyterian 0.23092
307 Niagara 0.22879
308 VMI 0.22772
309 Bethune-Cookman 0.22412
310 Marist 0.22231
311 Maine 0.21848
312 Binghamton 0.21654
313 SC Upstate 0.21578
314 Howard 0.21508
315 Robert Morris 0.21427
316 Longwood 0.21065
317 Alabama St 0.20551
318 IL Chicago 0.20126
319 Stetson 0.19994
320 NC Central 0.19829
321 Jacksonville St 0.19251
322 New Orleans 0.19245
323 Abilene Chr 0.19002
324 Alabama A&M 0.18789
325 Hartford 0.18714
326 NC A&T 0.18341
327 Lafayette 0.17967
328 MD E Shore 0.17822
329 UMBC 0.17160
330 Cent Arkansas 0.16774
331 Northern Arizona 0.16659
332 Lamar 0.16444
333 UT San Antonio 0.16028
334 Coppin St 0.14789
335 Morgan St 0.14574
336 UTRGV 0.14365
337 Bryant 0.13815
338 Southern Utah 0.13418
339 Ark Pine Bluff 0.12301
340 Northwestern LA 0.12298
341 Delaware St 0.12181
342 Florida A&M 0.11905
343 SE Louisiana 0.11577
344 Nicholls St 0.09652
345 MS Valley St 0.09613
346 Prairie View 0.09602
347 McNeese St 0.08271
348 SE Missouri St 0.07829
349 Central Conn 0.07085
350 Grambling 0.05396
351 Chicago St 0.01381
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