March Madness Rankings: February 8th Edition

 

In the past couple weeks, once again high ranked teams fell apart on the court, unable to bolster their resumes for top spots in the upcoming NCAA Championship Tournament:

#4 Kansas fell to #14 Iowa State on January 24th. #5 Texas A&M lost to unranked Arkansas on January 26th. #3 Iowa lost to #8 Maryland in College Park on January 28th. #9 West Virginia lost to unranked Florida by 17 on January 30th. #2 North Carolina lost to Louisville (who is now disqualified due to disciplinary actions). #8 Texas A&M fell to Vanderbilt on February 4th. #1 Oklahoma lost to unranked Kansas State as #2 North Carolina lost to unranked Notre Dame (as well as a third loss by #8 Texas A&M) on February 6th.

Over the 14 day period, Top 10 ranked teams lost 9 games for an overall record of 27-10. This is a marked improvement over the previous 13-10 record for the two prior weeks. However, this trend just encapsulates the season: There are no dominant teams; only teams that can be dominating in short spurts.

As the season has progressed, our beta regression model has taken some hits. Starting with an r-squared (coefficient of determination) value of nearly 0.75, we have dropped down to 0.57 after these last two weeks. Due to this massive fluctuation in team performance, similar rankings methods have taken a serious hit; such as the Colley matrix rankings method. The Colley method relies on the continuity corrected Bernoulli model, which clocked in at an underwhelming 0.5 fit.

March Madness Current Entrants:

Using the current games played, the locations of the games, and the disparity of scores, we are able to build out a current state of the 2016 March Madness Tournament.

Rules: In order to make the tournament, a team must win their conference tournament, win the Ivy League regular season, or become an “at-large” bid that is selected based on merit by an NCAA committee.

In this post, we give an updated rankings for all 351 NCAA Division I teams. But first, we identify the current teams on pace (projected by our models) for becoming conference champions and “at-large” bids.

It should be noted that our rankings will include the suspended Southern Methodist University, whereas the AP Top 25 Coaches’ Poll does not include the Mustangs. Also, in recent light of team discipline, Louisville has also been disqualified from the post-season.

Fitting our models, we find that there is a 0.5731 r-squared, indicating an “O.K. but no-where predictive” fit to the games played. Using the rankings as determination for conference winners, we have the following teams with automatic bids:

  1. America East: Stony Brook (20-4, 11-0)
  2. American: Connecticut (17-6, 7-3)
  3. Atlantic 10: Dayton (19-3, 9-1)
  4. Atlantic Coast: Virginia (19-4, 8-3)
  5. Atlantic Sun: North Florida (18-8, 7-2)
  6. Big 12: Oklahoma (20-3, 8-3)
  7. Big East: Villanova (20-3, 10-1)
  8. Big Sky: Weber State (16-7, 8-2)
  9. Big South: UNC Asheville (17-8, 10-3)
  10. Big Ten: Iowa (19-4, 10-1)
  11. Big West: Hawaii (18-3, 7-1)
  12. Colonial Athletic: William and Mary (17-6, 9-3)
  13. Conference USA: UAB (20-4, 10-1)
  14. Horizon League: Valparaiso (20-4, 10-1)
  15. Ivy League: Yale (15-5, 6-0)
  16. Metro Atlantic: Monmouth (19-5, 11-2)
  17. Mid-American: Akron (19-4, 8-2)
  18. Mid-Eastern: Hampton (14-9, 9-2)
  19. Missouri Valley: Wichita State (17-6, 11-1)
  20. Mountain West: San Diego State (18-6, 11-0)
  21. Northeast: Wagner (15-8, 8-4)
  22. Ohio Valley: Belmont (17-8, 9-2)
  23. Pac-12: Oregon (20-4, 9-2)
  24. Patriot League: Navy (16-9, 7-5)
  25. Southeastern: Texas A&M (18-5, 7-3)
  26. Southern: Chattanooga (22-3, 11-1)
  27. Southland: Texas A&M Corpus Christi (18-5, 9-2)
  28. Southwestern Athletic: Southern (16-8, 8-3)
  29. Summit League: South Dakota State (19-5, 8-2)
  30. Sun Belt: Arkansas Little Rock (21-2, 11-1)
  31. West Coast: St. Mary’s (19-3, 10-2)
  32. Western Athletic: Grand Canyon (20-4, 7-2)

The remaining 36 “at-large” teams are then the top 36 teams in our rankings. These 36 teams are given as:

  1. Xavier (21-2, 9-2)
  2. Kansas (19-4, 7-3)
  3. West Virginia (19-4, 8-2)
  4. Maryland (21-3, 10-2)
  5. Michigan State (17-4, 4-4)
  6. North Carolina (19-4, 8-2)
  7. Iowa State (17-6, 6-4)
  8. Miami (FL) (15-3, 4-2)
  9. Purdue (19-5, 7-4)
  10. Baylor (17-6, 6-4)
  11. Texas (16-8, 7-4)
  12. USC (18-5, 7-3)
  13. South Carolina (20-3, 7-3)
  14. Arizona (19-5, 7-4)
  15. Seton Hall (17-6, 7-4)
  16. Utah (17-7, 6-5)
  17. Michigan (17-7, 7-4)
  18. Pittsburgh (17-5, 6-4)
  19. Duke (18-6, 7-4)
  20. Providence (18-6, 7-4)
  21. Notre Dame (17-7, 8-4)
  22. Colorado (17-7, 6-5)
  23. Kentucky (17-6, 7-3)
  24. Kansas State (14-9, 3-7)
  25. Florida State (16-7, 6-5)
  26. St. Joseph’s (19-4, 8-2)
  27. Indiana (19-5, 8-2)
  28. Florida (15-8, 6-4)
  29. Butler (16-7, 5-6)
  30. Syracuse (16-8, 6-5)
  31. George Washington (18-5, 7-3)
  32. California (15-8, 5-5)
  33. Cincinnati (17-6, 7-4)
  34. Oregon State (14-8, 5-6)
  35. Texas Tech (13-9, 3-7)
  36. Washington (15-8, 7-4)

The next set of teams are our current bubble teams. These are teams that are close to making the NCAA Tournament but are on the outside looking in.

  1. Vanderbilt (13-10, 5-5)
  2. Clemson (14-10, 7-5)
  3. VCU (17-6, 9-1)
  4. Gonzaga (19-5, 11-2)
  5. Georgia (13-8, 6-4)
  6. Stanford (11-10, 4-6)
  7. Wisconsin (14-9, 6-4)
  8. UCLA (13-10, 4-6)
  9. LSU (15-8, 8-2)
  10. Creighton (15-9, 6-5)

On the Bubble List, you will find three glaring teams: VCU, Gonzaga, and LSU. These three teams should be safe in the tournament if the season plays out nearly as expected.

Gonzaga’s three non-conference losses are to Texas A&M, Arizona, and UCLA. Texas A&M is in a free-fall, reducing the strength of Gonzaga’s loss. Similarly, Arizona and UCLA are not performing well (or as expected) within the weaker (compared to Big Ten, ACC, Big 12) Pac-12. Plus with no signature win, the Bulldogs are obviously on that bubble despite a strong record.

VCU is in a similar boat as the Bulldogs. A loss to “#5” Duke is completely downplayed as Duke is struggling to be in the Top 25. Complete their losses with four more unranked opponents and a loss to borderline Top 25 Cincy; and zero signature wins, the Rams are not quite championship tournament material.

This brings us to the helter-skelter LSU Tigers. With losses to Marquette, NC State, and Wake Forrest at home; and losses to Charleston and Houston on the road… the Tigers should never be in consideration for a tournament spot. However, they are in the lead for the Southeastern Conference at this very moment despite no signature wins and a loss to Texas A&M.

The current state of the NCAA Tournament is given as follows:

MarchMadnessFebruary8th

NCAA March Madness seedings based on our rankings as of January 24th, 2016.

We note that we are not predicting the field of 68, but rather giving seedings based on play up to today. Our goal is to populate the March Madness tournament with current seedings; to give indication of where teams are sitting as of today. As the conference games continue to play out, the field of 68 will become much clearer.

NCAA Rankings on February 7th, 2016:

We now present our top-to-bottom rankings based on wins, game locations, and disparity of points.

Rank Team Score Record MM Position
1 Villanova 0.99963 20-3 (10-1) Big East
2 Xavier 0.97102 21-2 (9-2) At Large
3 Oklahoma 0.95464 20-3 (8-3) Big 12
4 SMU 0.93882 20-2 (9-2) DQ
5 Iowa 0.90857 19-4 (10-1) Big Ten
6 Kansas 0.90385 19-4 (7-3) At Large
7 West Virginia 0.90275 19-4 (8-2) At Large
8 Maryland 0.90099 21-3 (10-2) At Large
9 Michigan St 0.89433 20-4 (7-4) At Large
10 Virginia 0.89233 19-4 (8-3) ACC
11 Dayton 0.86595 19-3 (9-1) Atlantic 10
12 North Carolina 0.86370 19-4 (8-2) At Large
13 Iowa St 0.86090 17-6 (6-4) At Large
14 Oregon 0.86074 20-4 (9-2) Pac 12
15 Louisville 0.84867 19-5 (8-3) DQ
16 Miami FL 0.84323 18-4 (7-3) At Large
17 Purdue 0.82650 19-5 (7-4) At Large
18 Texas A&M 0.82588 18-5 (7-3) SEC
19 Baylor 0.81846 17-6 (6-4) At Large
20 Texas 0.81620 16-8 (7-4) At Large
21 USC 0.80556 18-5 (7-3) At Large
22 South Carolina 0.80516 20-3 (7-3) At Large
23 Arizona 0.80289 19-5 (7-4) At Large
24 Seton Hall 0.79229 17-6 (7-4) At Large
25 Utah 0.78579 17-7 (6-5) At Large
26 Michigan 0.78348 17-7 (7-4) At Large
27 Pittsburgh 0.78130 17-5 (6-4) At Large
28 Duke 0.78065 18-6 (7-4) At Large
29 Providence 0.77418 18-6 (6-5) At Large
30 Notre Dame 0.76928 17-7 (8-4) At Large
31 Colorado 0.76867 17-7 (6-5) At Large
32 Kentucky 0.76387 17-6 (7-3) At Large
33 Kansas St 0.76247 14-9 (3-7) At Large
34 Florida St 0.76193 16-7 (6-5) At Large
35 St Joseph’s PA 0.75825 19-4 (8-2) At Large
36 Indiana 0.75511 19-5 (9-2) At Large
37 Florida 0.75493 15-8 (6-4) At Large
38 Butler 0.75224 16-7 (5-6) At Large
39 Connecticut 0.75102 17-6 (7-3) American
40 Syracuse 0.75099 16-8 (6-5) At Large
41 G Washington 0.74170 18-5 (7-3) At Large
42 California 0.73971 15-8 (5-5) At Large
43 Cincinnati 0.73915 17-6 (7-4) At Large
44 Ark Little Rock 0.73670 21-2 (11-1) Sun Belt
45 Oregon St 0.73568 14-8 (5-6) At Large
46 Texas Tech 0.73262 13-9 (3-7) At Large
47 Washington 0.72883 15-8 (7-4) At Large
48 St Mary’s CA 0.72618 19-3 (10-2) West Coast
49 Wichita St 0.72143 17-6 (11-1) Missouri Valley
50 Chattanooga 0.71895 22-3 (11-1) Southern
51 Vanderbilt 0.71603 13-10 (5-5) Bubble
52 Clemson 0.71268 14-10 (7-5) Bubble
53 VA Commonwealth 0.71053 17-6 (9-1) Bubble
54 Gonzaga 0.71017 19-5 (11-2) Bubble
55 San Diego St 0.70758 18-6 (11-0) Mountain West
56 Georgia 0.70643 13-8 (6-4) Bubble
57 Stanford 0.70536 11-10 (4-6) Bubble
58 Wisconsin 0.70534 14-9 (6-4) Bubble
59 Hawaii 0.69752 18-3 (7-1) Big West
60 UCLA 0.69559 13-10 (4-6) Bubble
61 LSU 0.69184 15-8 (8-2) Bubble
62 Creighton 0.69013 15-9 (6-5) Bubble
63 Marquette 0.69008 15-9 (4-7)
64 Alabama 0.68515 13-9 (4-6)
65 Northwestern 0.68449 16-8 (4-7)
66 Monmouth NJ 0.68316 19-5 (11-2) MAAC
67 Valparaiso 0.68177 20-4 (10-1) Horizon
68 Tulsa 0.68061 15-8 (7-4)
69 Georgetown 0.67960 14-11 (7-5)
70 St Bonaventure 0.67828 15-6 (7-3)
71 Georgia Tech 0.67296 12-11 (2-8)
72 Virginia Tech 0.66825 13-11 (5-6)
73 Arizona St 0.66045 13-11 (3-8)
74 Mississippi 0.65856 15-8 (5-5)
75 William & Mary 0.65762 17-6 (9-3) Colonial Athletic
76 Temple 0.65571 14-8 (8-3)
77 Arkansas 0.65524 12-11 (5-5)
78 Akron 0.65360 19-4 (8-2) Mid-American
79 Houston 0.65299 16-7 (6-5)
80 Ohio St 0.65170 14-10 (6-5)
81 UAB 0.64101 20-4 (10-1) Conference USA
82 Davidson 0.64073 13-8 (5-5)
83 Wake Forest 0.63878 10-13 (1-10)
84 Evansville 0.63626 19-6 (8-4)
85 NC State 0.63599 12-12 (2-9)
86 Memphis 0.63203 14-9 (5-5)
87 Nebraska 0.62115 13-11 (5-6)
88 Oklahoma St 0.61953 11-13 (2-9)
89 Stony Brook 0.61804 20-4 (11-0) America East
90 UC Irvine 0.61538 18-6 (7-1)
91 S Dakota St 0.61356 19-5 (8-2) Summit League
92 Yale 0.61330 15-5 (6-0) Ivy League
93 Grand Canyon 0.61253 20-4 (7-2) WAC
94 Tennessee 0.60771 11-12 (4-6)
95 Boise St 0.60707 16-8 (7-4)
96 Richmond 0.60661 12-10 (4-6)
97 UNC Wilmington 0.60622 18-5 (10-2)
98 Penn St 0.60464 12-12 (3-8)
99 James Madison 0.60365 18-7 (8-4)
100 Duquesne 0.60314 15-8 (5-5)
101 BYU 0.59551
102 Illinois 0.59053
103 Rhode Island 0.58659
104 Princeton 0.58061
105 New Mexico 0.57968
106 Mercer 0.57608
107 Col Charleston 0.57607
108 TCU 0.57568
109 Hofstra 0.57244
110 DePaul 0.56840
111 Auburn 0.56599
112 S Illinois 0.56377
113 Long Beach St 0.55959
114 UNLV 0.55830
115 Oakland 0.55581
116 W Kentucky 0.55365
117 MTSU 0.55313
118 IPFW 0.55124
119 Fresno St 0.54918
120 Buffalo 0.54906
121 Ohio 0.54623
122 Northern Iowa 0.54605
123 Illinois St 0.53593
124 UT Arlington 0.53237
125 Kent 0.53046
126 Belmont 0.52948 17-8 (9-2) Ohio Valley
127 New Mexico St 0.52665
128 Santa Barbara 0.52613
129 N Illinois 0.52107
130 Pepperdine 0.51921
131 Nevada 0.51889
132 Indiana St 0.51880
133 TAM C. Christi 0.51519 18-5 (9-2) Southland
134 Towson 0.51233
135 SF Austin 0.51216
136 Mississippi St 0.50953
137 Tennessee Tech 0.50924
138 East Carolina 0.50834
139 Elon 0.50801
140 N Dakota St 0.50776
141 Columbia 0.50342
142 Washington St 0.50289
143 Fordham 0.50213
144 Missouri 0.50171
145 Siena 0.50051
146 Ball St 0.50047
147 Toledo 0.49857
148 Louisiana Tech 0.49695
149 Old Dominion 0.49604
150 Colorado St 0.49576
151 Albany NY 0.49553
152 UCF 0.49497
153 WI Milwaukee 0.49459
154 North Florida 0.49441 18-8 (7-2) Atlantic Sun
155 Wright St 0.48986
156 Northeastern 0.48803
157 C Michigan 0.48732
158 UNC Asheville 0.48622 17-8 (10-3) Big South
159 NE Omaha 0.48269
160 Georgia St 0.48256
161 ULL 0.48102
162 Utah St 0.48038
163 ETSU 0.47941
164 Iona 0.47827
165 WI Green Bay 0.47606
166 Wyoming 0.47156
167 George Mason 0.47104
168 CS Bakersfield 0.46918
169 Tennessee St 0.46889
170 Marshall 0.46310
171 Weber St 0.46209 16-7 (8-2) Big Sky
172 Massachusetts 0.46186
173 Oral Roberts 0.45552
174 Morehead St 0.45534
175 Minnesota 0.45305
176 Coastal Car 0.45169
177 St Louis 0.45094
178 Detroit 0.44884
179 Montana 0.44740
180 E Michigan 0.44726
181 Winthrop 0.44438
182 Loyola-Chicago 0.44327
183 Missouri St 0.44236
184 Denver 0.43400
185 St John’s 0.43248
186 IUPUI 0.43219
187 W Michigan 0.43203
188 Vermont 0.43150
189 FL Gulf Coast 0.43074
190 Air Force 0.42919
191 Murray St 0.42771
192 Radford 0.42690
193 Fairfield 0.42654
194 South Dakota 0.42595
195 Bowling Green 0.42487
196 Furman 0.41488
197 High Point 0.41452
198 NJIT 0.41296
199 Boston College 0.41286
200 Navy 0.41131 16-9 (7-5) Patriot League
201 San Francisco 0.40984
202 Bucknell 0.40745
203 Southern Univ 0.40531 16-8 (8-3) SWAC
204 E Kentucky 0.40448
205 ULM 0.40283
206 Wagner 0.39716 15-8 (8-4) Northeast
207 Wofford 0.38772
208 Miami OH 0.38674
209 Gardner Webb 0.38642
210 TN Martin 0.38605
211 Portland 0.38361
212 Idaho 0.38276
213 Cal Poly SLO 0.38101
214 UTEP 0.38049
215 North Dakota 0.38039
216 Tulane 0.37445
217 Loy Marymount 0.37277
218 Canisius 0.37254
219 Manhattan 0.37107
220 Rutgers 0.37014
221 Boston Univ 0.36709
222 Charlotte 0.36669
223 Cornell 0.36307
224 E Washington 0.36256
225 Hampton 0.35974 14-9 (9-2) MEAC
226 UC Davis 0.35967
227 S Carolina St 0.35664
228 E Illinois 0.35503
229 N Kentucky 0.35404
230 Harvard 0.35089
231 Arkansas St 0.34995
232 CS Sacramento 0.34833
233 Incarnate Word 0.34549
234 Army 0.34412
235 Santa Clara 0.34389
236 Colgate 0.34311
237 Jacksonville 0.34271
238 South Florida 0.34267
239 Samford 0.34208
240 Ga Southern 0.34117
241 La Salle 0.34091
242 New Hampshire 0.34021
243 Austin Peay 0.34000
244 Houston Bap 0.34000
245 Florida Intl 0.33855
246 Montana St 0.33738
247 Norfolk St 0.33735
248 F Dickinson 0.33699
249 Pacific 0.33590
250 South Alabama 0.33536
251 Seattle 0.33507
252 San Jose St 0.33504
253 UC Riverside 0.33487
254 San Diego 0.33479
255 Youngstown St 0.33474
256 Rider 0.33195
257 W Illinois 0.33072
258 CS Fullerton 0.32557
259 TX Southern 0.32040
260 St Peter’s 0.31722
261 Idaho St 0.31477
262 Delaware 0.31364
263 Drexel 0.30864
264 Penn 0.30863
265 CS Northridge 0.30693
266 Drake 0.30651
267 Missouri KC 0.30560
268 Liberty 0.30410
269 Appalachian St 0.30399
270 St Francis PA 0.30301
271 Lehigh 0.30182
272 Sam Houston St 0.30086
273 Cleveland St 0.30047
274 Jackson St 0.29609
275 Quinnipiac 0.29442
276 Loyola MD 0.29328
277 FL Atlantic 0.29263
278 W Carolina 0.29171
279 UNC Greensboro 0.29129
280 North Texas 0.29043
281 Portland St 0.28864
282 Texas St 0.28825
283 Citadel 0.28449
284 Southern Miss 0.28431
285 Charleston So 0.28305
286 Holy Cross 0.27666
287 Utah Valley 0.27592
288 Troy 0.27195
289 Brown 0.26938
290 Lipscomb 0.26600
291 Kennesaw 0.26504
292 Dartmouth 0.26361
293 Mt St Mary’s 0.26305
294 Long Island 0.26291
295 Rice 0.26038
296 Bradley 0.25823
297 St Francis NY 0.25797
298 Stetson 0.25513
299 American Univ 0.25334
300 N Colorado 0.25260
301 Howard 0.24870
302 MA Lowell 0.24764
303 Niagara 0.24100
304 MD E Shore 0.24075
305 Maine 0.23897
306 Presbyterian 0.23645
307 Marist 0.22933
308 Longwood 0.22752
309 Campbell 0.22364
310 Edwardsville 0.22353
311 Bethune-Cookman 0.21578
312 SC Upstate 0.21501
313 Alcorn St 0.21341
314 Sacred Heart 0.21063
315 Savannah St 0.20857
316 Lafayette 0.20744
317 UMBC 0.20590
318 New Orleans 0.20370
319 Alabama A&M 0.20165
320 NC A&T 0.19984
321 Jacksonville St 0.19804
322 Robert Morris 0.19246
323 VMI 0.19213
324 Binghamton 0.19043
325 Hartford 0.18948
326 Abilene Chr 0.17416
327 NC Central 0.17349
328 Alabama St 0.15943
329 Lamar 0.15853
330 Bryant 0.15342
331 Southern Utah 0.15025
332 Coppin St 0.14211
333 Cent Arkansas 0.14134
334 Morgan St 0.14089
335 Northern Arizona 0.14035
336 UT San Antonio 0.13970
337 Ark Pine Bluff 0.12489
338 McNeese St 0.12243
339 UTRGV 0.11339
340 Northwestern LA 0.10954
341 IL Chicago 0.10732
342 SE Louisiana 0.10601
343 Florida A&M 0.10423
344 SE Missouri St 0.10374
345 Nicholls St 0.09958
346 MS Valley St 0.08881
347 Grambling 0.07995
348 Central Conn 0.05774
349 Delaware St 0.04659
350 Prairie View 0.02242
351 Chicago St 0.01484
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