March Madness Bracketology: Final Rankings

Now that the conference tournaments have wrapped up, we are left to identify who is in and who is out. Many analysts use RPI, gut feelings, and perceived “key wins” to help them identify a top 36 team “At-Large” seeding. Others such as Lunardi, Massey, and Colley, incorporate metrics observed based on wins, points, locations, and relative wins. In our method, we use locations, relative wins, wins, weighted score, player injury, and recency of wins. The calculated scores can be found in the rankings below.

Conferences are broken down as follows: Conference Name (with number of teams expected to make the NCAA Tournament), Tournament Champion (automatic bid into NCAA Tournament), Still Alive (Not eliminated from conference tournament as of this morning), Predicted Winner (of the conference tournament), At-Large (currently sitting as an at-large if they are not in (or predicted to win) the conference tournament), Bubble Team (If they are within the top 15 teams after the at-larges are determined).

We note that an “At-Large” team is a team that is not projected to be a conference winner; is not a conference winner; and is in the Top 36 remaining spots. This is in no way indicative of saying that these teams are safe. The “Bubble” teams are teams that are within the Top 68 and have not been proposed an “At-Large” bid or won a conference championship.

1. America East (1)

Tournament Champion: Vermont

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

2. American (2)

Tournament Champion: SMU

At-Large: Cincinnati

Bubble Team: Houston

 

3. Atlantic 10 (3)

Tournament Champion: Rhode Island

At-Large: Dayton, VCU

Bubble Team: None

 

4. Atlantic Coast (9)

Tournament Champion: Duke

At-Large: North Carolina, Florida State, Louisville, Notre Dame, Virginia, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Bubble Team: Syracuse, Clemson

 

5. Atlantic Sun (1)

Tournament Champion: Florida Gulf Coast

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

6. Big 12 (6)

Tournament Champion: Iowa State

At-Large: Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Bubble Team: TCU

 

7. Big East (7)

Tournament Champion: Villanova

At-Large: Butler, Creighton, Seton Hall, Marquette, Providence, Xavier

Bubble Team: None

 

8. Big Sky (1)

Tournament Champion: North Dakota

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

9. Big South (1)

Tournament Champion: Winthrop

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

10. Big Ten (7)

Tournament Champion: Michigan

At-Large: Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland, Michigan State, Northwestern, Minnesota

Bubble Team: Indiana, Illinois, Iowa

 

11. Big West (1)

Tournament Champion: UC Davis

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

12. Colonial Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: NC – Wilmington

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

13. Conference USA (1)

Tournament Champion: Middle Tennessee State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

14. Horizon League (1)

Tournament Champion: Northern Kentucky

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: Valparaiso

 

15. Ivy League (1)

Tournament Champion: Princeton

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

16. Metro Atlantic Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: Iona

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

17. Mid-American (1)

Tournament Champion: Kent State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

18. Mid-Eastern Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: North Carolina Central

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

19. Missouri Valley (1)

Tournament Champion: Wichita State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: Illinois State

 

20. Mountain West (1)

Tournament Champion: Nevada

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

21. Northeast (1)

Tournament Champion: Mt. St. Mary’s

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

22. Ohio Valley (1)

Tournament Champion: Jacksonville State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

23. Pacific 12 (4)

Tournament Champion: Arizona

At-Large: UCLA, Oregon, USC

Bubble Team: California

 

24. Patriot League (1)

Tournament Champion: Bucknell

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

25. Southeastern (5)

Tournament Champion: Kentucky

At-Large: Arkansas, Florida, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Bubble Team: Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama

 

26. Southern (1)

Tournament Champion: East Tennessee State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

27. Southland (1)

Tournament Champion: New Orleans

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

28. Southwestern Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: Texas Southern

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

29. Summit League (1)

Tournament Champion: South Dakota State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

30. Sun Belt (1)

Tournament Champion: Troy

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

31. West Coast (2)

Tournament Champion: Gonzaga

At-Large: St. Mary’s

Bubble Team: None

 

32. Western Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: New Mexico State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

 

Current State of NCAA Tournament

Using our rankings system, we place the 68 teams into the tournament bracket as follows:

MMBracketCleanFinal

 

Current Rankings (Jacobs’ Model)

The overall rankings according to our current model shows the scores for each of the 351 NCAA Division I teams.

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