After another three days, the season returned to its wild form as Top 10 teams went a combined 3-3. #5 Xavier exorcised its demons against #1 Villanova in a 90-83 win on Wednesday, February 24th. On the same night, #9 Arizona dropped a 72-75 contest in Colorado. The big game of that night was the 67-59 upset picked up by surging Wisconsin over slumping #8 Iowa.

In other key games, Princeton knocked off Columbia to make the Ivy League turn into a two-horse race with a week to go. Marquette picked up a 66-61 bubble saving game against Creighton.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic Sun wrapped up its regular season and is the first conference to head into its post-season.

 

March Madness Current Entrants:

Using the current games played, the locations of the games, and the disparity of scores, we are able to build out a current state of the 2016 March Madness Tournament.

Rules: In order to make the tournament, a team must win their conference tournament, win the Ivy League regular season, or become an “at-large” bid that is selected based on merit by an NCAA committee.

In this post, we give an updated rankings for all 351 NCAA Division I teams. But first, we identify the current teams on pace (projected by our models) for becoming conference champions and “at-large” bids.

It should be noted that our rankings will include the suspended Southern Methodist University, whereas the AP Top 25 Coaches’ Poll does not include the Mustangs. Also, in recent light of team discipline, Louisville has also been disqualified from the post-season.

Other Teams Disqualified: Abilene Christian, Grand Canyon, Incarnate Word, Mass – Lowell, Northern Kentucky, NJIT (Transition to Division 1); Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson (NCAA Violations: APR); Missouri, Pacific, Southern Mississippi (Self-Imposed)

Fitting our models, we find that there is a 0.5416 r-squared, indicating an “O.K. but no-where predictive” fit to the games played. Note that an r-squared value of 0.25 typically indicates coin flips. Using the rankings as determination for conference winners, we have the following teams with automatic bids:

1. America East: Stony Brook (23-5, 14-1)
2. American: Connecticut (20-8, 10-5)
3. Atlantic 10: Dayton (22-5, 12-3)
4. Atlantic Coast: North Carolina (23-5, 12-3)
5. Atlantic Sun: North Florida (21-10, 10-4)
6. Big 12: Kansas (24-4, 12-3)
7. Big East: Villanova (24-4, 13-2)
8. Big Sky: Weber State (21-7, 13-2)
9. Big South: Winthrop (20-8, 12-5)
10. Big Ten: Michigan State (23-5, 10-5)
11. Big West: Hawaii (22-4, 11-2)
12. Colonial Athletic: Hofstra (21-8, 13-4)
13. Conference USA: UAB (23-5, 13-2)
14. Horizon League: Valparaiso (25-5, 15-2)
15. Ivy League: Princeton (19-5, 9-1)
16. Metro Atlantic: Monmouth (24-6, 16-3)
17. Mid-American: Akron (22-7, 11-5)
18. Mid-Eastern: Hampton (16-9, 11-2)
19. Missouri Valley: Wichita State (22-7, 15-2)
20. Mountain West: San Diego State (21-7, 14-1)
21. Northeast: Wagner (19-9, 12-5)
22. Ohio Valley: Belmont (20-9, 12-3)
23. Pac-12: Oregon (22-6, 11-4)
24. Patriot League: Bucknell (16-12, 13-4)
25. Southeastern: Kentucky (21-7, 11-4)
26. Southern: Chattanooga (24-5, 13-3)
27. Southland: Stephen F. Austin (21-5, 14-0)
28. Southwestern Athletic: Texas Southern (14-12, 13-1)
29. Summit League: South Dakota State (22-7, 11-4)
30. Sun Belt: Arkansas Little Rock (25-3, 15-2)
31. West Coast: St. Mary’s (23-4, 14-3)
32. Western Athletic: New Mexico State (20-9, 11-1)

Dropped Out: Miami (22-5, 11-4), UNC – Wilmington (21-6, 13-3)

Jumped In: North Carolina, Hofstra

The remaining 36 “at-large” teams are then the top 36 teams in our rankings. These 36 teams are given as:

1. Xavier (25-3, 13-3)
2. Oklahoma (22-5, 10-5)
3. Miami FL (22-5, 11-4)
4. West Virginia (21-7, 10-5)
5. Virginia (21-6, 10-5)
6. Maryland (23-5, 11-4)
7. Utah (22-7, 11-5)
8. Duke (21-7, 10-5)
9. Baylor (20-8, 9-6)
10. Iowa State (19-9, 8-7)
11. Iowa (20-7, 11-4)
12. Arizona (22-6, 10-5)
13. Texas (18-10, 9-6)
14. Purdue (21-7, 9-6)
15. Indiana (23-6, 12-3)
16. Texas Tech (18-9, 8-7)
17. California (20-8, 10-5)
18. Texas A&M (21-7 (10-5)
19. Seton Hall (20-7, 10-5)
20. Notre Dame (19-8, 9-5)
21. South Carolina (23-5, 10-5)
22. St. Joseph’s (23-5, 12-3)
23. Butler (18-9, 7-8)
24. Pittsburgh (19-8, 8-7)
25. Colorado (19-9, 9-7)
26. Michigan (20-9, 10-6)
27. Oregon State (16-10, 7-8)
28. USC (19-9, 8-7)
29. Wisconsin (18-10, 10-5)
30. Syracuse (18-10, 8-7)
31. Providence (19-9, 7-8)
32. Cincinnati (20-8, 10-5)
33. Florida (17-11, 8-7)
34. Stanford (14-12, 7-8)
35. Tulsa (19-9, 11-5)
36. George Washington (19-7, 8-5)

DROPPED OUT: Creighton (17-11, 8-7), Vanderbilt (17-11, 9-6), Kansas State (15-13, 4-11)

SNEAKED IN: Stanford, Tulsa, George Washington

The next set of teams are our current bubble teams. These are teams that are close to making the NCAA Tournament but are on the outside looking in.

1. Vanderbilt (17-11, 9-6)
2. Kansas State (15-13, 4-11)
3. Washington (16-12, 8-8)
4. Creighton (17-11, 8-7)
5. Marquette (18-10, 7-8)
6. Georgia Tech (16-12, 6-9)
7. St. Bonaventure (19-7, 11-4)
8. Florida State (16-12, 6-10)
9. UCLA (15-13, 6-9)
10. Alabama (16-11, 7-8)

FLOATED OUT OF BUBBLE: VCU (20-8, 12-3), Gonzaga (22-7, 14-3)

CLIMBED INTO BUBBLE: Marquette, St. Bonaventure

The current state of the NCAA Tournament is given as follows:

We note that we are not predicting the field of 68, but rather giving seedings based on play up to today. Our goal is to populate the March Madness tournament with current seedings; to give indication of where teams are sitting as of today. As the conference games continue to play out, the field of 68 will become much clearer.

Rank	Team	Score	Record	MM Position
1	Villanova	0.99840	24-4 (13-2)	Big East
2	Xavier	0.97923	25-3 (13-3)	At Large
3	Kansas	0.97132	24-4 (12-3)	Big 12
4	Oklahoma	0.94688	22-5 (10-5)	At Large
5	Michigan St	0.90080	23-5 (10-5)	Big Ten
6	North Carolina	0.89110	23-5 (12-3)	ACC
7	Miami FL	0.88909	22-5 (11-4)	At Large
8	West Virginia	0.88862	21-7 (10-5)	At Large
9	Virginia	0.88630	21-6 (10-5)	At Large
10	SMU	0.87356	23-4 (11-4)	DQ: Violations
11	Louisville	0.86571	22-6 (11-4)	DQ: Self Imposed
12	Maryland	0.86141	23-5 (11-4)	At Large
13	Oregon	0.86040	22-6 (11-4)	Pac-12
14	Utah	0.85625	22-7 (11-5)	At Large
15	Duke	0.85473	21-7 (10-5)	At Large
16	Baylor	0.84602	20-8 (9-6)	At Large
17	Iowa St	0.84000	19-9 (8-7)	At Large
18	Iowa	0.83895	20-7 (11-4)	At Large
19	Arizona	0.82963	22-6 (10-5)	At Large
20	Texas	0.82831	18-10 (9-6)	At Large
21	Purdue	0.82568	21-7 (9-6)	At Large
22	Indiana	0.82417	23-6 (13-3)	At Large
23	Kentucky	0.81888	21-7 (11-4)	SEC
24	Texas Tech	0.81634	18-9 (8-7)	At Large
25	Dayton	0.81593	22-5 (12-3)	Atlantic 10
26	California	0.81451	20-8 (10-5)	At Large
27	Texas A&M	0.81328	21-7 (10-5)	At Large
28	Seton Hall	0.81191	20-7 (10-5)	At Large
29	Notre Dame	0.80344	19-8 (10-5)	At Large
30	South Carolina	0.79999	23-5 (10-5)	At Large
31	St Joseph’s PA	0.79720	23-5 (12-3)	At Large
32	Butler	0.78884	18-9 (7-8)	At Large
33	Pittsburgh	0.78740	19-8 (8-7)	At Large
34	Colorado	0.78605	20-9 (9-7)	At Large
35	Michigan	0.78526	20-9 (10-6)	At Large
36	Oregon St	0.77253	16-10 (7-8)	At Large
37	USC	0.77221	19-9 (8-7)	At Large
38	Wisconsin	0.76985	18-10 (10-5)	At Large
39	Connecticut	0.76708	20-8 (10-5)	American
40	Syracuse	0.76606	18-10 (8-7)	At Large
41	Providence	0.76540	19-9 (7-8)	At Large
42	Cincinnati	0.75619	20-8 (10-5)	At Large
43	Florida	0.74280	17-11 (8-7)	At Large
44	Stanford	0.74158	14-12 (7-8)	At Large
45	Wichita St	0.74154	22-7 (15-2)	Missouri Valley
46	Tulsa	0.74023	19-9 (11-5)	At Large
47	St Mary’s CA	0.73919	23-4 (14-3)	West Coast
48	G Washington	0.73876	21-7 (10-5)	At Large
49	Vanderbilt	0.73861	17-11 (9-6)	Bubble
50	Kansas St	0.73693	15-13 (4-11)	Bubble
51	Ark Little Rock	0.73226	25-3 (15-2)	Sun Belt
52	Hawaii	0.72924	22-4 (11-2)	Big West
53	Washington	0.72621	16-12 (8-8)	Bubble
54	Creighton	0.72620	17-11 (8-7)	Bubble
55	Marquette	0.72487	18-10 (7-8)	Bubble
56	Georgia Tech	0.72294	16-12 (6-9)	Bubble
57	San Diego St	0.72105	21-7 (14-1)	Mountain West
58	St Bonaventure	0.71959	19-7 (11-4)	Bubble
59	Florida St	0.71643	16-12 (6-10)	Bubble
60	UCLA	0.71569	15-13 (6-9)	Bubble
61	Alabama	0.71455	16-11 (7-8)	Bubble
62	Gonzaga	0.71252	22-7 (14-3)
63	Temple	0.70118	17-10 (11-4)
64	VA Commonwealth	0.70105	20-8 (12-3)
65	Clemson	0.70065	16-12 (9-7)
66	Ohio St	0.70035	18-11 (10-6)
67	Valparaiso	0.69933	25-5 (15-2)	Horizon League
68	Virginia Tech	0.69298	15-13 (7-8)
69	Houston	0.68547	20-8 (10-6)
70	Georgetown	0.68353	14-14 (7-8)
71	Northwestern	0.68286	17-11 (5-10)
72	Mississippi	0.67986	18-10 (8-7)
73	Arizona St	0.67544	14-14 (4-11)
74	Georgia	0.67384	14-12 (7-8)
75	LSU	0.67338	16-12 (9-6)
76	NC State	0.67033	14-14 (4-11)
77	Davidson	0.66847	17-9 (9-6)
78	Monmouth NJ	0.66827	24-6 (16-3)	MAAC
79	Princeton	0.65817	19-5 (9-1)	Ivy League
80	Evansville	0.65317	23-7 (12-5)
81	UAB	0.64943	23-5 (13-2)	Conference USA
82	Chattanooga	0.64853	24-5 (13-3)	Southern
83	Penn St	0.64413	15-13 (6-9)
84	Grand Canyon	0.63802	24-4 (10-2)	DQ: Transition
85	BYU	0.63662	22-8 (13-4)
86	Oklahoma St	0.63565	12-16 (3-12)
87	Arkansas	0.63562	14-14 (7-8)
88	Yale	0.63068	19-6 (10-1)
89	Hofstra	0.62805	21-8 (13-4)	Colonial Athletic
90	Tennessee	0.62655	13-15 (6-9)
91	Wake Forest	0.62634	11-17 (2-14)
92	Stony Brook	0.62581	23-5 (14-1)	America East
93	William & Mary	0.62438	19-9 (11-6)
94	UC Irvine	0.62324	21-8 (10-3)
95	UNC Wilmington	0.62297	21-7 (13-4)
96	S Dakota St	0.62280	22-7 (11-4)	Summit League
97	Nebraska	0.61522	14-15 (6-10)
98	Richmond	0.61350	14-13 (6-9)
99	Boise St	0.61175	18-10 (9-6)
100	Akron	0.60512	22-7 (11-5)	MAC
101	Rhode Island	0.60498
102	IPFW	0.60493
103	Fresno St	0.59788
104	Northern Iowa	0.59774
105	James Madison	0.59479
106	TCU	0.59403
107	Illinois	0.59023
108	Mississippi St	0.58814
109	Illinois St	0.58804
110	Ohio	0.58588
111	Memphis	0.58583
112	S Illinois	0.58388
113	Long Beach St	0.57796
114	Oakland	0.57713
115	Auburn	0.57672
116	UNLV	0.57637
117	Duquesne	0.57518
118	New Mexico	0.57494
119	SF Austin	0.57424	21-5 (14-0)	Southland
120	Kent	0.56834
121	Nevada	0.56485
122	W Kentucky	0.55488
123	Santa Barbara	0.55448
124	DePaul	0.55221
125	Belmont	0.55160	20-9 (12-3)	Ohio Valley
126	New Mexico St	0.55046	20-9 (11-1)	WAC
127	Towson	0.55004
128	Pepperdine	0.54644
129	Col Charleston	0.54625
130	UT Arlington	0.54562
131	MTSU	0.54418
132	Buffalo	0.54167
133	Missouri	0.54112
134	TAM C. Christi	0.53770
135	Northeastern	0.53572
136	Iona	0.53322
137	Ball St	0.53079
138	ETSU	0.52784
139	Louisiana Tech	0.52674
140	Morehead St	0.52626
141	Toledo	0.52153
142	Columbia	0.51978
143	N Illinois	0.51825
144	Massachusetts	0.51772
145	NE Omaha	0.51686
146	Albany NY	0.51606
147	WI Green Bay	0.51535
148	Siena	0.51479
149	Colorado St	0.51442
150	Utah St	0.51341
151	Minnesota	0.51076
152	WI Milwaukee	0.51038
153	Fordham	0.50924
154	Washington St	0.50504
155	N Dakota St	0.50318
156	E Michigan	0.50189
157	Wright St	0.50066
158	Elon	0.50036
159	Winthrop	0.49901	20-8 (12-5)	Big South
160	Indiana St	0.49833
161	UNC Asheville	0.49361
162	Weber St	0.49111	21-7 (13-2)	Big Sky
163	Marshall	0.49074
164	Tennessee Tech	0.49015
165	High Point	0.48988
166	George Mason	0.48957
167	Loyola-Chicago	0.48853
168	Wyoming	0.48771
169	Oral Roberts	0.48720
170	UCF	0.48561
171	C Michigan	0.48524
172	ULM	0.48508
173	Tennessee St	0.48503
174	Mercer	0.48354
175	CS Bakersfield	0.48298
176	St Louis	0.48130
177	ULL	0.47941
178	East Carolina	0.47767
179	Old Dominion	0.47650
180	Montana	0.47494
181	North Florida	0.47320	21-10 (10-4)	Atlantic Sun
182	Fairfield	0.46932
183	Detroit	0.46784
184	Missouri St	0.46730
185	Coastal Car	0.46485
186	Air Force	0.46407
187	St John’s	0.45599
188	South Dakota	0.44952
189	Radford	0.44786
190	Georgia St	0.44566
191	Vermont	0.44439
192	Murray St	0.44012
193	TN Martin	0.43966
194	Denver	0.43930
195	Furman	0.43893
196	W Michigan	0.43805
197	IUPUI	0.43284
198	San Francisco	0.42761
199	UTEP	0.42279
200	Wofford	0.42263
201	NJIT	0.42253
202	Bowling Green	0.42042
203	FL Gulf Coast	0.41995
204	Bucknell	0.41946	16-12 (13-4)	Patriot League
205	Tulane	0.41641
206	Boston College	0.41525
207	Wagner	0.41278	19-9 (12-5)	Northeast
208	Miami OH	0.40908
209	W Carolina	0.40756
210	South Florida	0.40647
211	Army	0.40581
212	E Kentucky	0.40523
213	Portland	0.40140
214	Navy	0.39972
215	Idaho	0.39779
216	Gardner Webb	0.39619
217	Loy Marymount	0.39600
218	Ga Southern	0.39442
219	Hampton	0.39346	16-9 (11-2)	MEAC
220	E Washington	0.38625
221	Charlotte	0.38155
222	North Dakota	0.38082
223	La Salle	0.38073
224	Boston Univ	0.38041
225	Cal Poly SLO	0.37958
226	New Hampshire	0.37758
227	Lehigh	0.37271
228	Canisius	0.37232
229	Santa Clara	0.37150
230	Harvard	0.37093
231	Manhattan	0.36771
232	South Alabama	0.36611
233	St Peter’s	0.36595
234	UNC Greensboro	0.36264
235	TX Southern	0.36161	14-12 (13-1)	SWAC
236	Penn	0.36093
237	Austin Peay	0.35943
238	UC Riverside	0.35931
239	Southern Univ	0.35540
240	Samford	0.35466
241	S Carolina St	0.35383
242	Drexel	0.35259
243	Delaware	0.35165
244	Sam Houston St	0.35111
245	W Illinois	0.34873
246	E Illinois	0.34867
247	Rutgers	0.34849
248	Texas St	0.34757
249	Colgate	0.34715
250	UC Davis	0.34472
251	Montana St	0.34237
252	CS Northridge	0.34052
253	Pacific	0.33884
254	Incarnate Word	0.33675
255	San Jose St	0.33440
256	Houston Bap	0.33425
257	Arkansas St	0.33306
258	Rider	0.33268
259	Cleveland St	0.32928
260	CS Fullerton	0.32787
261	Kennesaw	0.32780
262	Rice	0.32740
263	Idaho St	0.32647
264	CS Sacramento	0.32643
265	F Dickinson	0.32362
266	Jacksonville	0.32337
267	Youngstown St	0.32197
268	San Diego	0.32130
269	North Texas	0.31913
270	Jackson St	0.31792
271	Norfolk St	0.31444
272	N Kentucky	0.31265
273	Florida Intl	0.31264
274	Cornell	0.31065
275	Seattle	0.30988
276	Liberty	0.30495
277	Missouri KC	0.30491
278	Lipscomb	0.30337
279	Troy	0.30044
280	Appalachian St	0.30042
281	Utah Valley	0.29758
282	Drake	0.29506
283	Long Island	0.29393
284	Loyola MD	0.28986
285	Portland St	0.28777
286	Dartmouth	0.28229
287	Campbell	0.28142
288	St Francis NY	0.28066
289	American Univ	0.28054
290	Bradley	0.27956
291	St Francis PA	0.27626
292	Charleston So	0.27411
293	Mt St Mary’s	0.27360
294	FL Atlantic	0.27223
295	Quinnipiac	0.26972
296	Citadel	0.26762
297	Savannah St	0.26683
298	VMI	0.26568
299	MA Lowell	0.26374
300	N Colorado	0.26124
301	Holy Cross	0.26014
302	Brown	0.25456
303	Southern Miss	0.25381
304	Presbyterian	0.24934
305	SC Upstate	0.24470
306	Edwardsville	0.24377
307	Marist	0.24110
308	Alcorn St	0.24060
309	Bethune-Cookman	0.23455
310	Niagara	0.23219
311	Stetson	0.23099
312	Robert Morris	0.22971
313	Howard	0.22861
314	Sacred Heart	0.22676
315	Maine	0.20848
316	Alabama St	0.20825
317	Longwood	0.20509
318	Binghamton	0.20473
319	NC Central	0.20471
320	IL Chicago	0.20167
321	Hartford	0.19938
322	New Orleans	0.19670
323	Abilene Chr	0.19502
324	Jacksonville St	0.19140
325	NC A&T	0.19098
326	Alabama A&M	0.18951
327	MD E Shore	0.18622
328	UMBC	0.18621
329	Lafayette	0.18175
330	Morgan St	0.17503
331	Cent Arkansas	0.17191
332	Northern Arizona	0.17153
333	Lamar	0.16971
334	UT San Antonio	0.15841
335	Coppin St	0.15392
336	UTRGV	0.14714
337	Southern Utah	0.13996
338	Bryant	0.13406
339	Delaware St	0.12868
340	Northwestern LA	0.12598
341	Ark Pine Bluff	0.12443
342	SE Louisiana	0.11753
343	Florida A&M	0.11646
344	Nicholls St	0.09897
345	MS Valley St	0.09689
346	Prairie View	0.09621
347	McNeese St	0.08515
348	SE Missouri St	0.07788
349	Central Conn	0.06693
350	Grambling	0.05346
351	Chicago St	0.01333