March Madness Bracketology: February 26th Edition

After another three days, the season returned to its wild form as Top 10 teams went a combined 3-3. #5 Xavier exorcised its demons against #1 Villanova in a 90-83 win on Wednesday, February 24th. On the same night, #9 Arizona dropped a 72-75 contest in Colorado. The big game of that night was the 67-59 upset picked up by surging Wisconsin over slumping #8 Iowa.

In other key games, Princeton knocked off Columbia to make the Ivy League turn into a two-horse race with a week to go. Marquette picked up a 66-61 bubble saving game against Creighton.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic Sun wrapped up its regular season and is the first conference to head into its post-season.

 

March Madness Current Entrants:

Using the current games played, the locations of the games, and the disparity of scores, we are able to build out a current state of the 2016 March Madness Tournament.

Rules: In order to make the tournament, a team must win their conference tournament, win the Ivy League regular season, or become an “at-large” bid that is selected based on merit by an NCAA committee.

In this post, we give an updated rankings for all 351 NCAA Division I teams. But first, we identify the current teams on pace (projected by our models) for becoming conference champions and “at-large” bids.

It should be noted that our rankings will include the suspended Southern Methodist University, whereas the AP Top 25 Coaches’ Poll does not include the Mustangs. Also, in recent light of team discipline, Louisville has also been disqualified from the post-season.

Other Teams Disqualified: Abilene Christian, Grand Canyon, Incarnate Word, Mass – Lowell, Northern Kentucky, NJIT (Transition to Division 1); Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson (NCAA Violations: APR); Missouri, Pacific, Southern Mississippi (Self-Imposed)

Fitting our models, we find that there is a 0.5416 r-squared, indicating an “O.K. but no-where predictive” fit to the games played. Note that an r-squared value of 0.25 typically indicates coin flips. Using the rankings as determination for conference winners, we have the following teams with automatic bids:

  1. America East: Stony Brook (23-5, 14-1)
  2. American: Connecticut (20-8, 10-5)
  3. Atlantic 10: Dayton (22-5, 12-3)
  4. Atlantic Coast: North Carolina (23-5, 12-3)
  5. Atlantic Sun: North Florida (21-10, 10-4)
  6. Big 12: Kansas (24-4, 12-3)
  7. Big East: Villanova (24-4, 13-2)
  8. Big Sky: Weber State (21-7, 13-2)
  9. Big South: Winthrop (20-8, 12-5)
  10. Big Ten: Michigan State (23-5, 10-5)
  11. Big West: Hawaii (22-4, 11-2)
  12. Colonial Athletic: Hofstra (21-8, 13-4)
  13. Conference USA: UAB (23-5, 13-2)
  14. Horizon League: Valparaiso (25-5, 15-2)
  15. Ivy League: Princeton (19-5, 9-1)
  16. Metro Atlantic: Monmouth (24-6, 16-3)
  17. Mid-American: Akron (22-7, 11-5)
  18. Mid-Eastern: Hampton (16-9, 11-2)
  19. Missouri Valley: Wichita State (22-7, 15-2)
  20. Mountain West: San Diego State (21-7, 14-1)
  21. Northeast: Wagner (19-9, 12-5)
  22. Ohio Valley: Belmont (20-9, 12-3)
  23. Pac-12: Oregon (22-6, 11-4)
  24. Patriot League: Bucknell (16-12, 13-4)
  25. Southeastern: Kentucky (21-7, 11-4)
  26. Southern: Chattanooga (24-5, 13-3)
  27. Southland: Stephen F. Austin (21-5, 14-0)
  28. Southwestern Athletic: Texas Southern (14-12, 13-1)
  29. Summit League: South Dakota State (22-7, 11-4)
  30. Sun Belt: Arkansas Little Rock (25-3, 15-2)
  31. West Coast: St. Mary’s (23-4, 14-3)
  32. Western Athletic: New Mexico State (20-9, 11-1)

Dropped Out: Miami (22-5, 11-4), UNC – Wilmington (21-6, 13-3)

Jumped In: North Carolina, Hofstra

The remaining 36 “at-large” teams are then the top 36 teams in our rankings. These 36 teams are given as:

  1. Xavier (25-3, 13-3)
  2. Oklahoma (22-5, 10-5)
  3. Miami FL (22-5, 11-4)
  4. West Virginia (21-7, 10-5)
  5. Virginia (21-6, 10-5)
  6. Maryland (23-5, 11-4)
  7. Utah (22-7, 11-5)
  8. Duke (21-7, 10-5)
  9. Baylor (20-8, 9-6)
  10. Iowa State (19-9, 8-7)
  11. Iowa (20-7, 11-4)
  12. Arizona (22-6, 10-5)
  13. Texas (18-10, 9-6)
  14. Purdue (21-7, 9-6)
  15. Indiana (23-6, 12-3)
  16. Texas Tech (18-9, 8-7)
  17. California (20-8, 10-5)
  18. Texas A&M (21-7 (10-5)
  19. Seton Hall (20-7, 10-5)
  20. Notre Dame (19-8, 9-5)
  21. South Carolina (23-5, 10-5)
  22. St. Joseph’s (23-5, 12-3)
  23. Butler (18-9, 7-8)
  24. Pittsburgh (19-8, 8-7)
  25. Colorado (19-9, 9-7)
  26. Michigan (20-9, 10-6)
  27. Oregon State (16-10, 7-8)
  28. USC (19-9, 8-7)
  29. Wisconsin (18-10, 10-5)
  30. Syracuse (18-10, 8-7)
  31. Providence (19-9, 7-8)
  32. Cincinnati (20-8, 10-5)
  33. Florida (17-11, 8-7)
  34. Stanford (14-12, 7-8)
  35. Tulsa (19-9, 11-5)
  36. George Washington (19-7, 8-5)

DROPPED OUT: Creighton (17-11, 8-7), Vanderbilt (17-11, 9-6), Kansas State (15-13, 4-11)

SNEAKED IN: Stanford, Tulsa, George Washington

The next set of teams are our current bubble teams. These are teams that are close to making the NCAA Tournament but are on the outside looking in.

  1. Vanderbilt (17-11, 9-6)
  2. Kansas State (15-13, 4-11)
  3. Washington (16-12, 8-8)
  4. Creighton (17-11, 8-7)
  5. Marquette (18-10, 7-8)
  6. Georgia Tech (16-12, 6-9)
  7. St. Bonaventure (19-7, 11-4)
  8. Florida State (16-12, 6-10)
  9. UCLA (15-13, 6-9)
  10. Alabama (16-11, 7-8)

FLOATED OUT OF BUBBLE: VCU (20-8, 12-3), Gonzaga (22-7, 14-3)

CLIMBED INTO BUBBLE: Marquette, St. Bonaventure

The current state of the NCAA Tournament is given as follows:

MarchMadnessFebruary26th

NCAA March Madness seedings based on our rankings as of February 26th, 2016.

We note that we are not predicting the field of 68, but rather giving seedings based on play up to today. Our goal is to populate the March Madness tournament with current seedings; to give indication of where teams are sitting as of today. As the conference games continue to play out, the field of 68 will become much clearer.

Rank Team Score Record MM Position
1 Villanova 0.99840 24-4 (13-2) Big East
2 Xavier 0.97923 25-3 (13-3) At Large
3 Kansas 0.97132 24-4 (12-3) Big 12
4 Oklahoma 0.94688 22-5 (10-5) At Large
5 Michigan St 0.90080 23-5 (10-5) Big Ten
6 North Carolina 0.89110 23-5 (12-3) ACC
7 Miami FL 0.88909 22-5 (11-4) At Large
8 West Virginia 0.88862 21-7 (10-5) At Large
9 Virginia 0.88630 21-6 (10-5) At Large
10 SMU 0.87356 23-4 (11-4) DQ: Violations
11 Louisville 0.86571 22-6 (11-4) DQ: Self Imposed
12 Maryland 0.86141 23-5 (11-4) At Large
13 Oregon 0.86040 22-6 (11-4) Pac-12
14 Utah 0.85625 22-7 (11-5) At Large
15 Duke 0.85473 21-7 (10-5) At Large
16 Baylor 0.84602 20-8 (9-6) At Large
17 Iowa St 0.84000 19-9 (8-7) At Large
18 Iowa 0.83895 20-7 (11-4) At Large
19 Arizona 0.82963 22-6 (10-5) At Large
20 Texas 0.82831 18-10 (9-6) At Large
21 Purdue 0.82568 21-7 (9-6) At Large
22 Indiana 0.82417 23-6 (13-3) At Large
23 Kentucky 0.81888 21-7 (11-4) SEC
24 Texas Tech 0.81634 18-9 (8-7) At Large
25 Dayton 0.81593 22-5 (12-3) Atlantic 10
26 California 0.81451 20-8 (10-5) At Large
27 Texas A&M 0.81328 21-7 (10-5) At Large
28 Seton Hall 0.81191 20-7 (10-5) At Large
29 Notre Dame 0.80344 19-8 (10-5) At Large
30 South Carolina 0.79999 23-5 (10-5) At Large
31 St Joseph’s PA 0.79720 23-5 (12-3) At Large
32 Butler 0.78884 18-9 (7-8) At Large
33 Pittsburgh 0.78740 19-8 (8-7) At Large
34 Colorado 0.78605 20-9 (9-7) At Large
35 Michigan 0.78526 20-9 (10-6) At Large
36 Oregon St 0.77253 16-10 (7-8) At Large
37 USC 0.77221 19-9 (8-7) At Large
38 Wisconsin 0.76985 18-10 (10-5) At Large
39 Connecticut 0.76708 20-8 (10-5) American
40 Syracuse 0.76606 18-10 (8-7) At Large
41 Providence 0.76540 19-9 (7-8) At Large
42 Cincinnati 0.75619 20-8 (10-5) At Large
43 Florida 0.74280 17-11 (8-7) At Large
44 Stanford 0.74158 14-12 (7-8) At Large
45 Wichita St 0.74154 22-7 (15-2) Missouri Valley
46 Tulsa 0.74023 19-9 (11-5) At Large
47 St Mary’s CA 0.73919 23-4 (14-3) West Coast
48 G Washington 0.73876 21-7 (10-5) At Large
49 Vanderbilt 0.73861 17-11 (9-6) Bubble
50 Kansas St 0.73693 15-13 (4-11) Bubble
51 Ark Little Rock 0.73226 25-3 (15-2) Sun Belt
52 Hawaii 0.72924 22-4 (11-2) Big West
53 Washington 0.72621 16-12 (8-8) Bubble
54 Creighton 0.72620 17-11 (8-7) Bubble
55 Marquette 0.72487 18-10 (7-8) Bubble
56 Georgia Tech 0.72294 16-12 (6-9) Bubble
57 San Diego St 0.72105 21-7 (14-1) Mountain West
58 St Bonaventure 0.71959 19-7 (11-4) Bubble
59 Florida St 0.71643 16-12 (6-10) Bubble
60 UCLA 0.71569 15-13 (6-9) Bubble
61 Alabama 0.71455 16-11 (7-8) Bubble
62 Gonzaga 0.71252 22-7 (14-3)
63 Temple 0.70118 17-10 (11-4)
64 VA Commonwealth 0.70105 20-8 (12-3)
65 Clemson 0.70065 16-12 (9-7)
66 Ohio St 0.70035 18-11 (10-6)
67 Valparaiso 0.69933 25-5 (15-2) Horizon League
68 Virginia Tech 0.69298 15-13 (7-8)
69 Houston 0.68547 20-8 (10-6)
70 Georgetown 0.68353 14-14 (7-8)
71 Northwestern 0.68286 17-11 (5-10)
72 Mississippi 0.67986 18-10 (8-7)
73 Arizona St 0.67544 14-14 (4-11)
74 Georgia 0.67384 14-12 (7-8)
75 LSU 0.67338 16-12 (9-6)
76 NC State 0.67033 14-14 (4-11)
77 Davidson 0.66847 17-9 (9-6)
78 Monmouth NJ 0.66827 24-6 (16-3) MAAC
79 Princeton 0.65817 19-5 (9-1) Ivy League
80 Evansville 0.65317 23-7 (12-5)
81 UAB 0.64943 23-5 (13-2) Conference USA
82 Chattanooga 0.64853 24-5 (13-3) Southern
83 Penn St 0.64413 15-13 (6-9)
84 Grand Canyon 0.63802 24-4 (10-2) DQ: Transition
85 BYU 0.63662 22-8 (13-4)
86 Oklahoma St 0.63565 12-16 (3-12)
87 Arkansas 0.63562 14-14 (7-8)
88 Yale 0.63068 19-6 (10-1)
89 Hofstra 0.62805 21-8 (13-4) Colonial Athletic
90 Tennessee 0.62655 13-15 (6-9)
91 Wake Forest 0.62634 11-17 (2-14)
92 Stony Brook 0.62581 23-5 (14-1) America East
93 William & Mary 0.62438 19-9 (11-6)
94 UC Irvine 0.62324 21-8 (10-3)
95 UNC Wilmington 0.62297 21-7 (13-4)
96 S Dakota St 0.62280 22-7 (11-4) Summit League
97 Nebraska 0.61522 14-15 (6-10)
98 Richmond 0.61350 14-13 (6-9)
99 Boise St 0.61175 18-10 (9-6)
100 Akron 0.60512 22-7 (11-5) MAC
101 Rhode Island 0.60498
102 IPFW 0.60493
103 Fresno St 0.59788
104 Northern Iowa 0.59774
105 James Madison 0.59479
106 TCU 0.59403
107 Illinois 0.59023
108 Mississippi St 0.58814
109 Illinois St 0.58804
110 Ohio 0.58588
111 Memphis 0.58583
112 S Illinois 0.58388
113 Long Beach St 0.57796
114 Oakland 0.57713
115 Auburn 0.57672
116 UNLV 0.57637
117 Duquesne 0.57518
118 New Mexico 0.57494
119 SF Austin 0.57424 21-5 (14-0) Southland
120 Kent 0.56834
121 Nevada 0.56485
122 W Kentucky 0.55488
123 Santa Barbara 0.55448
124 DePaul 0.55221
125 Belmont 0.55160 20-9 (12-3) Ohio Valley
126 New Mexico St 0.55046 20-9 (11-1) WAC
127 Towson 0.55004
128 Pepperdine 0.54644
129 Col Charleston 0.54625
130 UT Arlington 0.54562
131 MTSU 0.54418
132 Buffalo 0.54167
133 Missouri 0.54112
134 TAM C. Christi 0.53770
135 Northeastern 0.53572
136 Iona 0.53322
137 Ball St 0.53079
138 ETSU 0.52784
139 Louisiana Tech 0.52674
140 Morehead St 0.52626
141 Toledo 0.52153
142 Columbia 0.51978
143 N Illinois 0.51825
144 Massachusetts 0.51772
145 NE Omaha 0.51686
146 Albany NY 0.51606
147 WI Green Bay 0.51535
148 Siena 0.51479
149 Colorado St 0.51442
150 Utah St 0.51341
151 Minnesota 0.51076
152 WI Milwaukee 0.51038
153 Fordham 0.50924
154 Washington St 0.50504
155 N Dakota St 0.50318
156 E Michigan 0.50189
157 Wright St 0.50066
158 Elon 0.50036
159 Winthrop 0.49901 20-8 (12-5) Big South
160 Indiana St 0.49833
161 UNC Asheville 0.49361
162 Weber St 0.49111 21-7 (13-2) Big Sky
163 Marshall 0.49074
164 Tennessee Tech 0.49015
165 High Point 0.48988
166 George Mason 0.48957
167 Loyola-Chicago 0.48853
168 Wyoming 0.48771
169 Oral Roberts 0.48720
170 UCF 0.48561
171 C Michigan 0.48524
172 ULM 0.48508
173 Tennessee St 0.48503
174 Mercer 0.48354
175 CS Bakersfield 0.48298
176 St Louis 0.48130
177 ULL 0.47941
178 East Carolina 0.47767
179 Old Dominion 0.47650
180 Montana 0.47494
181 North Florida 0.47320 21-10 (10-4) Atlantic Sun
182 Fairfield 0.46932
183 Detroit 0.46784
184 Missouri St 0.46730
185 Coastal Car 0.46485
186 Air Force 0.46407
187 St John’s 0.45599
188 South Dakota 0.44952
189 Radford 0.44786
190 Georgia St 0.44566
191 Vermont 0.44439
192 Murray St 0.44012
193 TN Martin 0.43966
194 Denver 0.43930
195 Furman 0.43893
196 W Michigan 0.43805
197 IUPUI 0.43284
198 San Francisco 0.42761
199 UTEP 0.42279
200 Wofford 0.42263
201 NJIT 0.42253
202 Bowling Green 0.42042
203 FL Gulf Coast 0.41995
204 Bucknell 0.41946 16-12 (13-4) Patriot League
205 Tulane 0.41641
206 Boston College 0.41525
207 Wagner 0.41278 19-9 (12-5) Northeast
208 Miami OH 0.40908
209 W Carolina 0.40756
210 South Florida 0.40647
211 Army 0.40581
212 E Kentucky 0.40523
213 Portland 0.40140
214 Navy 0.39972
215 Idaho 0.39779
216 Gardner Webb 0.39619
217 Loy Marymount 0.39600
218 Ga Southern 0.39442
219 Hampton 0.39346 16-9 (11-2) MEAC
220 E Washington 0.38625
221 Charlotte 0.38155
222 North Dakota 0.38082
223 La Salle 0.38073
224 Boston Univ 0.38041
225 Cal Poly SLO 0.37958
226 New Hampshire 0.37758
227 Lehigh 0.37271
228 Canisius 0.37232
229 Santa Clara 0.37150
230 Harvard 0.37093
231 Manhattan 0.36771
232 South Alabama 0.36611
233 St Peter’s 0.36595
234 UNC Greensboro 0.36264
235 TX Southern 0.36161 14-12 (13-1) SWAC
236 Penn 0.36093
237 Austin Peay 0.35943
238 UC Riverside 0.35931
239 Southern Univ 0.35540
240 Samford 0.35466
241 S Carolina St 0.35383
242 Drexel 0.35259
243 Delaware 0.35165
244 Sam Houston St 0.35111
245 W Illinois 0.34873
246 E Illinois 0.34867
247 Rutgers 0.34849
248 Texas St 0.34757
249 Colgate 0.34715
250 UC Davis 0.34472
251 Montana St 0.34237
252 CS Northridge 0.34052
253 Pacific 0.33884
254 Incarnate Word 0.33675
255 San Jose St 0.33440
256 Houston Bap 0.33425
257 Arkansas St 0.33306
258 Rider 0.33268
259 Cleveland St 0.32928
260 CS Fullerton 0.32787
261 Kennesaw 0.32780
262 Rice 0.32740
263 Idaho St 0.32647
264 CS Sacramento 0.32643
265 F Dickinson 0.32362
266 Jacksonville 0.32337
267 Youngstown St 0.32197
268 San Diego 0.32130
269 North Texas 0.31913
270 Jackson St 0.31792
271 Norfolk St 0.31444
272 N Kentucky 0.31265
273 Florida Intl 0.31264
274 Cornell 0.31065
275 Seattle 0.30988
276 Liberty 0.30495
277 Missouri KC 0.30491
278 Lipscomb 0.30337
279 Troy 0.30044
280 Appalachian St 0.30042
281 Utah Valley 0.29758
282 Drake 0.29506
283 Long Island 0.29393
284 Loyola MD 0.28986
285 Portland St 0.28777
286 Dartmouth 0.28229
287 Campbell 0.28142
288 St Francis NY 0.28066
289 American Univ 0.28054
290 Bradley 0.27956
291 St Francis PA 0.27626
292 Charleston So 0.27411
293 Mt St Mary’s 0.27360
294 FL Atlantic 0.27223
295 Quinnipiac 0.26972
296 Citadel 0.26762
297 Savannah St 0.26683
298 VMI 0.26568
299 MA Lowell 0.26374
300 N Colorado 0.26124
301 Holy Cross 0.26014
302 Brown 0.25456
303 Southern Miss 0.25381
304 Presbyterian 0.24934
305 SC Upstate 0.24470
306 Edwardsville 0.24377
307 Marist 0.24110
308 Alcorn St 0.24060
309 Bethune-Cookman 0.23455
310 Niagara 0.23219
311 Stetson 0.23099
312 Robert Morris 0.22971
313 Howard 0.22861
314 Sacred Heart 0.22676
315 Maine 0.20848
316 Alabama St 0.20825
317 Longwood 0.20509
318 Binghamton 0.20473
319 NC Central 0.20471
320 IL Chicago 0.20167
321 Hartford 0.19938
322 New Orleans 0.19670
323 Abilene Chr 0.19502
324 Jacksonville St 0.19140
325 NC A&T 0.19098
326 Alabama A&M 0.18951
327 MD E Shore 0.18622
328 UMBC 0.18621
329 Lafayette 0.18175
330 Morgan St 0.17503
331 Cent Arkansas 0.17191
332 Northern Arizona 0.17153
333 Lamar 0.16971
334 UT San Antonio 0.15841
335 Coppin St 0.15392
336 UTRGV 0.14714
337 Southern Utah 0.13996
338 Bryant 0.13406
339 Delaware St 0.12868
340 Northwestern LA 0.12598
341 Ark Pine Bluff 0.12443
342 SE Louisiana 0.11753
343 Florida A&M 0.11646
344 Nicholls St 0.09897
345 MS Valley St 0.09689
346 Prairie View 0.09621
347 McNeese St 0.08515
348 SE Missouri St 0.07788
349 Central Conn 0.06693
350 Grambling 0.05346
351 Chicago St 0.01333
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