In the era of possession-based statistics, we often look at items such as per-possession or per-100 possessions. This type of parsing makes sense as a possession is deemed to be the period of time a team “controls” the basketball. The technical definition of a possession defines the end of the “control” period as the point of…
In the Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) model, one of the perceived challenges is understanding the error associated with the resulting posterior RAPM value a player receives. In a previous post, we noted that RAPM is a Bayesian model in which we assume that “player contribution” can be estimated through weighted offensive ratings conditioned on the…
Whenever we talk about scoring in the NBA, typically the the conversation points towards heroic scoring feats such as Wilt Chamberlain’s 100 point game or Kobe Bryant’s 81 point game. Or Wilt Chamberlain’s 78 point game… Or Wilt Chamberlain’s pair of 73 point games… or Wilt Chamberlain’s 72 point game. Of those other spurious 70+…
When we break down different types of actions on the court, we tend to look at play-by-play as a guide to understanding the play types. The most common break down we see is the shot type for a field goal attempt. From there, we have recently tended to discuss the differences between Klay Thompson and…
With the new year coming up, we will be posting our NCAA Rankings based on single-season, non-prior induced, metrics for predicting who should make the NCAA tournament. Every year, we typically score between 65 and 68 teams correct; last year being a bust with 64 teams. As a side note, three of the four missed…
Over the previous couple seasons, I have written extensively about how Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) is constructed, what the assumptions really mean, and how we interpret the results. If you’re curious for a refresher, feel free to remind yourself here. There’s an example in there that clearly breaks down how various forms of adjusted plus-minus…
As a kid growing up in the Los Angeles area, playing in AAU, the Nike leagues, and the Marmonte; we had a team that was a little ahead of its time: take three’s, switch everything, run teams into the ground by scoring before the defense was set, and force every opponent shot in the short…
As of the morning of November 20th, the Four Factors line for the 7-9 Dallas Mavericks read off as follows: Effective Field Goal Percentage: 0.527 (8th in the league) Turnover Percentage: 14.4 (28th in the league) Offensive Rebound Percentage: 22.6 (18th in the league) Free Throw Rate: 0.22 (7th in the league) Opponent eFG%: 0.527…
A tried-but-true strategy in pick-up (and grade school) basketball is the “dump-and-chase” offense. This offense takes as many jumpers as possible, regardless of capability, fully knowing that the team can either out-hustle their opponent for rebounds; or they have a behemoth of a rebounder on their team. As players become older, or more technically sound…
The terms offensive rating and defensive rating refers to the amount of points scored by a team and by the team’s opponents, respectively, over 100 possessions. The normalization to 100 possessions allows for the ability to compare teams as pace of games can skew points per game comparisons. Both ratings are still considered box score…
Squared Statistics: Understanding Basketball Analytics 