March Madness Bracketology: February 27th Edition

After yet another chaotic Saturday in the NCAA, we witnessed seven top 10 seeds come away with a 3-4 record. Utah (23-7; 12-5 Pac-12) continued its strong run with a six point victory over Arizona (22-7; 10-6 Pac-12). Virginia (22-6; 11-5 ACC) bounced back from its loss to Miami (23-5; 12-4 ACC) to gain a crucial win over North Carolina (23-6; 12-4 ACC).

Other than the Top 10 chaos, the rest of the 136 NCAA games seemed relatively quiet. One upset occurred: Vermont (19-12) defeated Stony Brook (23-6) in American East action; while two close games played out: Gonzaga (23-7) over BYU (22-9) [2-over-3 in West Coast] and Weber State (22-7) over Montana (18-9) [1-over-2 in Big Sky].

 

Saturday saw six conferences wrap up regular season play: America East, Colonial Athletic, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Patriot League, Summit League. They all head into conference tournament mode later this week. Another three conferences wrap up today; with the remaining 22 conferences wrapping up through Saturday of next week.

March Madness Current Entrants:

Using the current games played, the locations of the games, and the disparity of scores, we are able to build out a current state of the 2016 March Madness Tournament.

Rules: In order to make the tournament, a team must win their conference tournament, win the Ivy League regular season, or become an “at-large” bid that is selected based on merit by an NCAA committee.

In this post, we give an updated rankings for all 351 NCAA Division I teams. But first, we identify the current teams on pace (projected by our models) for becoming conference champions and “at-large” bids.

It should be noted that our rankings will include the suspended Southern Methodist University, whereas the AP Top 25 Coaches’ Poll does not include the Mustangs. Also, in recent light of team discipline, Louisville has also been disqualified from the post-season.

Other Teams Disqualified: Abilene Christian, Grand Canyon, Incarnate Word, Mass – Lowell, Northern Kentucky, NJIT (Transition to Division 1); Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson (NCAA Violations: APR); Missouri, Pacific, Southern Mississippi (Self-Imposed)

Fitting our models, we find that there is a 0.5416 r-squared, indicating an “O.K. but no-where predictive” fit to the games played. Note that an r-squared value of 0.25 typically indicates coin flips. Using the rankings as determination for conference winners, we have the following teams with automatic bids:

  1. America East: Stony Brook (23-6, 14-2)
  2. American: Connecticut (20-8, 10-5)
  3. Atlantic 10: St. Joseph’s (23-5, 12-3)
  4. Atlantic Coast: Miami (FL) (23-5, 12-4)
  5. Atlantic Sun: North Florida (21-10, 10-4)
  6. Big 12: Kansas (25-4, 13-3)
  7. Big East: Villanova (25-4, 14-2)
  8. Big Sky: Weber State (22-7, 14-2)
  9. Big South: Winthrop (21-8, 13-5)
  10. Big Ten: Michigan State (23-5, 10-5)
  11. Big West: Hawaii (23-4, 12-2)
  12. Colonial Athletic: Hofstra (22-8, 14-4)
  13. Conference USA: UAB (24-5, 14-2)
  14. Horizon League: Valparaiso (25-5, 15-2)
  15. Ivy League: Princeton (20-5, 10-1)
  16. Metro Atlantic: Monmouth (24-6, 16-3)
  17. Mid-American: Akron (22-7, 11-5)
  18. Mid-Eastern: Hampton (17-9, 12-2)
  19. Missouri Valley: Wichita State (23-7, 16-2)
  20. Mountain West: San Diego State (21-8, 14-2)
  21. Northeast: Wagner (20-9, 13-5)
  22. Ohio Valley: Belmont (20-9, 12-3)
  23. Pac-12: Utah (23-7, 12-5)
  24. Patriot League: Bucknell (17-12, 14-4)
  25. Southeastern: Texas A&M (22-7, 11-5)
  26. Southern: Chattanooga (25-5, 14-3)
  27. Southland: Stephen F. Austin (22-5, 15-0)
  28. Southwestern Athletic: Texas Southern (15-12, 14-1)
  29. Summit League: South Dakota State (23-7, 12-4)
  30. Sun Belt: Arkansas Little Rock (26-3, 16-2)
  31. West Coast: St. Mary’s (24-4, 15-3)
  32. Western Athletic: New Mexico State (21-9, 12-1)

Dropped Out: North Carolina (23-6, 12-4), Oregon (22-6, 11-4), Kentucky (21-8, 11-5), Dayton (22-6, 12-4)

Jumped In: Miami (FL), Utah, Texas A&M, St. Joseph’s

The remaining 36 “at-large” teams are then the top 36 teams in our rankings. These 36 teams are given as:

  1. Xavier (25-3, 13-3)
  2. Oklahoma (22-6, 10-6)
  3. Virginia (22-6, 11-5)
  4. West Virginia (22-7, 11-5)
  5. North Carolina (23-6, 12-4)
  6. Maryland (23-6, 11-5)
  7. Oregon (22-6, 11-4)
  8. Duke (21-7, 10-5)
  9. Baylor (21-8, 10-6)
  10. Iowa State (20-9, 9-7)
  11. Texas (19-10, 10-6)
  12. Iowa (20-7, 11-4)
  13. Arizona (22-7, 10-6)
  14. Indiana (23-6, 12-3)
  15. California (20-8, 10-5)
  16. Purdue (22-7, 10-6)
  17. Texas Tech (18-10, 8-8)
  18. Seton Hall (20-7, 10-5)
  19. Kentucky (21-8, 11-5)
  20. Butler (19-9, 8-8)
  21. Dayton (22-6, 12-4)
  22. Colorado (20-9, 10-7)
  23. Notre Dame (19-9, 9-6)
  24. Michigan (20-9, 10-6)
  25. Pittsburgh (19-8, 8-7)
  26. South Carolina (23-6, 10-6)
  27. Oregon State (17-10, 8-8)
  28. Syracuse (19-10, 9-7)
  29. USC (19-9, 8-7)
  30. Wisconsin (18-10, 10-5)
  31. Providence (20-9, 8-8)
  32. Cincinnati (21-8, 11-5)
  33. Stanford (15-12, 8-8)
  34. Vanderbilt (18-11, 10-6)
  35. Tulsa (19-9, 11-5)
  36. Florida State (17-12, 7-10)

DROPPED OUT:  Florida (17-12, 8-8), George Washington (19-7, 8-5)

SNEAKED IN: Vanderbilt, Florida State

The next set of teams are our current bubble teams. These are teams that are close to making the NCAA Tournament but are on the outside looking in.

  1. Florida (17-11, 8-7)
  2. Kansas State (15-14, 4-12)
  3. Washington (16-12, 8-8)
  4. Creighton (17-11, 8-7)
  5. George Washington (21-8, 10-6)
  6. Marquette (18-11, 7-9)
  7. Georgia Tech (17-12, 7-9)
  8. St. Bonaventure (20-7, 12-4)
  9. Gonzaga (23-7, 15-3)
  10. Alabama (17-11, 8-8)

FLOATED OUT OF BUBBLE: UCLA (15-14, 6-10)

CLIMBED INTO BUBBLE: Gonzaga

The current state of the NCAA Tournament is given as follows:

MarchMadnessFebruary27th

NCAA March Madness seedings based on our rankings as of February 27th, 2016.

We note that we are not predicting the field of 68, but rather giving seedings based on play up to today. Our goal is to populate the March Madness tournament with current seedings; to give indication of where teams are sitting as of today. As the conference games continue to play out, the field of 68 will become much clearer.

Rank Team Score Record MM Position
1 Villanova 0.99777 25-4 (14-2) Big East
2 Xavier 0.97494 25-3 (13-3) At Large
3 Kansas 0.97071 25-4 (13-3) Big 12
4 Oklahoma 0.92315 22-6 (10-6) At Large
5 Miami FL 0.89968 23-5 (12-4) ACC
6 Virginia 0.89561 22-6 (11-5) At Large
7 Michigan St 0.89523 23-5 (10-5) Big Ten
8 West Virginia 0.88722 22-7 (11-5) At Large
9 North Carolina 0.87377 23-6 (12-4) At Large
10 SMU 0.86952 23-4 (11-4) DQ: Violations
11 Maryland 0.86652 23-6 (11-5) At Large
12 Utah 0.86332 23-7 (12-5) Pac 12
13 Oregon 0.86015 22-6 (11-4) At Large
14 Duke 0.84882 21-7 (10-5) At Large
15 Louisville 0.84774 22-7 (11-5) DQ: Self-Imposed
16 Baylor 0.84694 21-8 (10-6) At Large
17 Iowa St 0.84317 20-9 (9-7) At Large
18 Texas 0.84019 19-10 (10-6) At Large
19 Iowa 0.83283 20-7 (11-4) At Large
20 Arizona 0.81773 22-7 (10-6) At Large
21 Indiana 0.81761 23-6 (13-3) At Large
22 California 0.81290 20-8 (10-5) At Large
23 Purdue 0.81250 22-7 (10-6) At Large
24 Texas A&M 0.81229 22-7 (11-5) SEC
25 Texas Tech 0.81041 18-10 (8-8) At Large
26 Seton Hall 0.80779 20-7 (10-5) At Large
27 Kentucky 0.79658 21-8 (11-5) At Large
28 Butler 0.79281 19-9 (8-8) At Large
29 St Joseph’s PA 0.79187 23-5 (12-3) Atlantic 10
30 Dayton 0.78484 22-6 (12-4) At Large
31 Colorado 0.78393 20-9 (9-7) At Large
32 Notre Dame 0.78139 19-9 (10-6) At Large
33 Michigan 0.78134 20-9 (10-6) At Large
34 Pittsburgh 0.78070 19-8 (8-7) At Large
35 South Carolina 0.77155 23-6 (10-6) At Large
36 Oregon St 0.77109 16-10 (7-8) At Large
37 Syracuse 0.76844 19-10 (9-7) At Large
38 USC 0.76706 19-9 (8-7) At Large
39 Wisconsin 0.76608 18-10 (10-5) At Large
40 Providence 0.76557 20-9 (8-8) At Large
41 Connecticut 0.76543 20-8 (10-5) American
42 Cincinnati 0.75579 21-8 (11-5) At Large
43 Stanford 0.74987 15-12 (8-8) At Large
44 Vanderbilt 0.74451 18-11 (10-6) At Large
45 Wichita St 0.74305 23-7 (16-2) Missouri Valley
46 St Mary’s CA 0.73953 24-4 (15-3) West Coast
47 Tulsa 0.73588 19-9 (11-5) At Large
48 Florida St 0.72868 17-12 (7-10) At Large
49 Florida 0.72775 17-12 (8-8) Bubble
50 Hawaii 0.72726 23-4 (12-2) Big West
51 Kansas St 0.72613 15-14 (4-12) Bubble
52 Ark Little Rock 0.72592 26-3 (16-2) Sun Belt
53 Washington 0.72376 16-12 (8-8) Bubble
54 Creighton 0.72159 17-11 (8-7) Bubble
55 G Washington 0.72088 21-8 (10-6) Bubble
56 Marquette 0.72062 18-11 (7-9) Bubble
57 Georgia Tech 0.71924 17-12 (7-9) Bubble
58 St Bonaventure 0.71576 20-7 (12-4) Bubble
59 Gonzaga 0.71568 23-7 (15-3) Bubble
60 Alabama 0.71109 17-11 (8-8) Bubble
61 VA Commonwealth 0.71099 21-8 (13-3)
62 UCLA 0.70238 15-14 (6-10)
63 Temple 0.70076 18-10 (12-4)
64 San Diego St 0.69783 21-8 (14-2) Mountain West
65 Clemson 0.69723 16-12 (9-7)
66 Valparaiso 0.69651 25-5 (15-2) Horizon League
67 Ohio St 0.69568 18-11 (10-6)
68 Virginia Tech 0.68908 15-13 (7-8)
69 Houston 0.68230 20-8 (10-6)
70 LSU 0.68109 17-12 (10-6)
71 Northwestern 0.68003 18-11 (6-10)
72 Georgia 0.67837 15-12 (8-8)
73 Georgetown 0.67381 14-15 (7-9)
74 Arizona St 0.67193 14-14 (4-11)
75 Mississippi 0.66400 18-11 (8-8)
76 NC State 0.66198 14-15 (4-12)
77 Monmouth NJ 0.66094 24-6 (16-3) MAAC
78 Princeton 0.65050 20-5 (10-1) Ivy League
79 UAB 0.64576 24-5 (14-2) Conference USA
80 Chattanooga 0.64531 25-5 (14-3) Southern
81 Davidson 0.64453 17-10 (9-7)
82 Arkansas 0.64185 15-14 (8-8)
83 Penn St 0.63679 15-13 (6-9)
84 Evansville 0.63667 23-8 (12-6)
85 Hofstra 0.63083 22-8 (14-4) Colonial Athletic
86 BYU 0.62811 22-9 (13-5)
87 Oklahoma St 0.62689 12-17 (3-13)
88 UNC Wilmington 0.62498 22-7 (14-4)
89 S Dakota St 0.62381 23-7 (12-4) Summit League
90 Boise St 0.62377 19-10 (10-6)
91 Wake Forest 0.62374 11-17 (2-14)
92 UC Irvine 0.62318 22-8 (11-3)
93 Rhode Island 0.62076 16-13 (8-8)
94 Richmond 0.62065 15-13 (7-9)
95 Nebraska 0.61139 14-15 (6-10)
96 Tennessee 0.61113 13-16 (6-10)
97 William & Mary 0.60785 19-10 (11-7)
98 Mississippi St 0.60503 13-15 (6-10)
99 Fresno St 0.60369 20-9 (11-5)
100 Northern Iowa 0.60341 19-12 (11-7)
101 Akron 0.60182 22-7 (11-5) Mid-American
102 Grand Canyon 0.60179
103 James Madison 0.59857
104 Stony Brook 0.59661 23-6 (14-2) America East
105 Yale 0.59254
106 Ohio 0.58972
107 TCU 0.58769
108 S Illinois 0.58293
109 Illinois 0.58276
110 Memphis 0.58170
111 IPFW 0.58144
112 UNLV 0.57893
113 Illinois St 0.57870
114 SF Austin 0.57780 22-5 (15-0) Southland
115 Long Beach St 0.57572
116 Oakland 0.57414
117 Auburn 0.56795
118 New Mexico 0.56400
119 Nevada 0.56380
120 Duquesne 0.55765
121 Santa Barbara 0.55679
122 MTSU 0.55014
123 Belmont 0.54890 20-9 (12-3) Ohio Valley
124 Kent 0.54844
125 W Kentucky 0.54747
126 New Mexico St 0.54626 21-9 (12-1) WAC
127 DePaul 0.54385
128 UT Arlington 0.54365
129 TAM C. Christi 0.53893
130 Towson 0.53855
131 Ball St 0.53598
132 Missouri 0.53562
133 Col Charleston 0.53522
134 Northeastern 0.53373
135 Iona 0.53156
136 Buffalo 0.53020
137 Fordham 0.52960
138 ETSU 0.52813
139 Pepperdine 0.52689
140 Louisiana Tech 0.52491
141 Morehead St 0.52321
142 Columbia 0.52139
143 N Illinois 0.52113
144 Utah St 0.51436
145 Massachusetts 0.51326
146 Siena 0.51290
147 Albany NY 0.51274
148 WI Green Bay 0.51262
149 Colorado St 0.51152
150 NE Omaha 0.51077
151 Toledo 0.50810
152 WI Milwaukee 0.50702
153 Minnesota 0.50575
154 CS Bakersfield 0.50250
155 Washington St 0.50249
156 Weber St 0.50243 22-7 (14-2) Big Sky
157 Wright St 0.50058
158 Elon 0.50021
159 Indiana St 0.49785
160 Winthrop 0.49669 21-8 (13-5) Big South
161 Tennessee Tech 0.49565
162 C Michigan 0.49177
163 E Michigan 0.48876
164 High Point 0.48830
165 N Dakota St 0.48785
166 ULM 0.48414
167 Tennessee St 0.48250
168 Wyoming 0.47973
169 UCF 0.47940
170 Oral Roberts 0.47875
171 Mercer 0.47798
172 Marshall 0.47781
173 UNC Asheville 0.47727
174 St Louis 0.47661
175 Old Dominion 0.47529
176 George Mason 0.47175
177 East Carolina 0.47135
178 North Florida 0.47007 21-10 (10-4) Atlantic Sun
179 Coastal Car 0.47006
180 Loyola-Chicago 0.46613
181 Detroit 0.46341
182 Air Force 0.46157
183 Vermont 0.46051
184 Missouri St 0.45858
185 ULL 0.45688
186 Montana 0.45667
187 St John’s 0.45435
188 Fairfield 0.45379
189 Georgia St 0.44886
190 Murray St 0.44871
191 Denver 0.44766
192 IUPUI 0.44596
193 South Dakota 0.43505
194 W Michigan 0.42925
195 TN Martin 0.42654
196 San Francisco 0.42417
197 Radford 0.42410
198 Bucknell 0.42385 17-12 (14-4) Patriot League
199 Furman 0.42319
200 Miami OH 0.42122
201 Bowling Green 0.41980
202 FL Gulf Coast 0.41921
203 NJIT 0.41826
204 Wofford 0.41441
205 Tulane 0.41427
206 Wagner 0.41420 20-9 (13-5) Northeast
207 W Carolina 0.41362
208 Boston College 0.41339
209 Loy Marymount 0.41067
210 UTEP 0.40746
211 La Salle 0.40626
212 Idaho 0.40360
213 South Florida 0.40235
214 E Kentucky 0.39620
215 Army 0.39249
216 Hampton 0.39164 17-9 (12-2) MEAC
217 Ga Southern 0.39151
218 Charlotte 0.38968
219 Portland 0.38870
220 North Dakota 0.38778
221 Navy 0.38762
222 Boston Univ 0.38187
223 New Hampshire 0.38122
224 St Peter’s 0.38019
225 Lehigh 0.37888
226 South Alabama 0.37868
227 Harvard 0.37737
228 Gardner Webb 0.37735
229 Cal Poly SLO 0.37709
230 E Washington 0.37504
231 Canisius 0.37226
232 Manhattan 0.36779
233 TX Southern 0.36686 15-12 (14-1) SWAC
234 W Illinois 0.36613
235 Santa Clara 0.35932
236 UNC Greensboro 0.35799
237 Austin Peay 0.35619
238 UC Riverside 0.35618
239 Penn 0.35322
240 Pacific 0.35069
241 Samford 0.34958
242 E Illinois 0.34679
243 Drexel 0.34595
244 Texas St 0.34300
245 Delaware 0.34157
246 UC Davis 0.34154
247 Sam Houston St 0.34049
248 CS Northridge 0.34032
249 Rutgers 0.33984
250 Incarnate Word 0.33522
251 Southern Univ 0.33456
252 S Carolina St 0.33451
253 Idaho St 0.33352
254 Rider 0.33324
255 San Diego 0.33313
256 Colgate 0.33020
257 Youngstown St 0.32985
258 Arkansas St 0.32751
259 CS Fullerton 0.32697
260 Montana St 0.32594
261 Kennesaw 0.32520
262 F Dickinson 0.32507
263 Houston Bap 0.32482
264 San Jose St 0.32453
265 Jackson St 0.32180
266 Cleveland St 0.32158
267 Rice 0.32035
268 Jacksonville 0.31875
269 Drake 0.31686
270 Florida Intl 0.31667
271 Seattle 0.31650
272 CS Sacramento 0.31552
273 Liberty 0.31510
274 Cornell 0.31197
275 Norfolk St 0.30759
276 Dartmouth 0.30737
277 Missouri KC 0.30103
278 Lipscomb 0.30002
279 North Texas 0.29956
280 N Kentucky 0.29584
281 Appalachian St 0.29319
282 Troy 0.29305
283 Portland St 0.29284
284 St Francis NY 0.29043
285 American Univ 0.28664
286 Utah Valley 0.28528
287 Long Island 0.28061
288 Savannah St 0.27803
289 Campbell 0.27718
290 Loyola MD 0.27691
291 VMI 0.27311
292 Charleston So 0.27233
293 Bradley 0.27217
294 Quinnipiac 0.26987
295 Southern Miss 0.26668
296 St Francis PA 0.26585
297 Mt St Mary’s 0.26483
298 MA Lowell 0.26356
299 FL Atlantic 0.25759
300 Holy Cross 0.25473
301 Alcorn St 0.25460
302 Citadel 0.25301
303 Brown 0.25133
304 N Colorado 0.24947
305 Presbyterian 0.24497
306 Marist 0.24168
307 Edwardsville 0.24069
308 SC Upstate 0.24065
309 Sacred Heart 0.23882
310 Bethune-Cookman 0.23695
311 Niagara 0.23285
312 Stetson 0.22823
313 Robert Morris 0.22745
314 Longwood 0.22698
315 Howard 0.22021
316 Binghamton 0.21374
317 Alabama St 0.21360
318 Abilene Chr 0.20245
319 Lafayette 0.20124
320 Hartford 0.20028
321 IL Chicago 0.20002
322 Maine 0.19913
323 NC A&T 0.19284
324 NC Central 0.18940
325 MD E Shore 0.18931
326 Jacksonville St 0.18770
327 Alabama A&M 0.18255
328 UMBC 0.18155
329 Morgan St 0.18044
330 New Orleans 0.17310
331 Lamar 0.16000
332 Bryant 0.15417
333 Southern Utah 0.15411
334 UT San Antonio 0.15294
335 Cent Arkansas 0.14708
336 Northern Arizona 0.14702
337 UTRGV 0.14372
338 Coppin St 0.13677
339 SE Louisiana 0.13270
340 Ark Pine Bluff 0.13137
341 Northwestern LA 0.11746
342 Delaware St 0.11186
343 Florida A&M 0.10645
344 McNeese St 0.09435
345 MS Valley St 0.08993
346 Prairie View 0.08672
347 Nicholls St 0.07527
348 SE Missouri St 0.07109
349 Central Conn 0.06647
350 Grambling 0.03751
351 Chicago St 0.01315
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