NCAA March Madness – January 24th Edition

Over the course of the previous 15 days, there have been some serious upsets within the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball landscape. On January 12th, #11 West Virginia ran #1 Kansas out of the arena with a 74-63 win. On the same day, #3 Maryland dropped a close 70-67 game to Michigan. One day later, #9 Duke found themselves on the losing end of a hotly contested 68-63 game against Clemson. On the 14th, another Top 10 team, #4 Michigan State suffered a defeat to the climbing #16 Iowa Hawkeyes by a demoralizing score of 76-59. How demoralizing? Michigan State followed the loss up with a pair of one point losses to unranked Wisconsin and unranked Nebraska, securing a three game losing streak.

Not to be outdone by the upsets, #1 Oklahoma lost 82-77 to #19 Iowa State on January 18th and #13 Virginia dropped a 69-62 game to unranked Florida State. Continuing on the trend of high profile teams dropping questionable games, #3 Kansas was rocked by Oklahoma State 86-67, while #20 Duke fell short in another close game; this time 64-62 to unranked Syracuse. #5 Xavier also followed suit on the 18th with a nine point 81-72 loss to Georgetown. Similarly, West Virginia’s move into the #6 position did not last long after an unexpected 56-49 loss to unranked Texas.

In total, between January 9th and the 23rd, the Top 10 ranked teams ranked by the Associated Press and Coaches’ Polls maintained a 13-10 record; going 1-4 against ranked opponents between ranks #11 through #25. No Top 10 teams faced each other during this time.

Needless to say, the last couple weeks have caused a menace to rankings systems. In our models, we found that the r-squared (strength of relationship between indicators and resulting score; 1 = perfect “fit”, 0 = absolutely no “fit”) took a 6 point hit from 0.66 down to 0.60. However, remember that rankings systems are built to reflect the past; not anticipate the future.

March Madness Current Entrants:

Using the current games played, the locations of the games, and the disparity of scores, we are able to build out a current state of the 2016 March Madness Tournament.

Rules: In order to make the tournament, a team must win their conference tournament, win the Ivy League regular season, or become an “at-large” bid that is selected based on merit by an NCAA committee.

In this post, we give an updated rankings for all 351 NCAA Division I teams. But first, we identify the current teams on pace (projected by our models) for becoming conference champions and “at-large” bids.

It should be noted that our rankings will include the suspended Southern Methodist University, whereas the AP Top 25 Coaches’ Poll does not include the Mustangs.

Fitting our models, we find that there is a 0.6072 r-squared, indicating a slightly good fit, but starting to waver on relatively questionable (think can determine winners with high probability but not able to determine spreads), to the games played.

  1. America East: Stony Brook (15-4, 6-0)
  2. American: Connecticut (14-5, 4-2)
  3. Atlantic 10: Dayton (15-3, 5-1)
  4. Atlantic Coast: Louisville (16-3, 5-1)
  5. Atlantic Sun: North Florida (16-6, 5-0)
  6. Big 12: Oklahoma (16-2, 5-2)
  7. Big East: Villanova (17-3, 7-1)
  8. Big Sky: Weber State (13-6, 5-1)
  9. Big South: UNC Asheville (14-7, 7-2)
  10. Big Ten: Purdue (17-4, 5-3)
  11. Big West: Hawaii (16-2, 5-0)
  12. Colonial Athletic: James Madison (16-5, 6-2)
  13. Conference USA: UAB (17-3, 7-0)
  14. Horizon League: Valparaiso (17-4, 7-1)
  15. Ivy League: Yale (11-5, 2-0)
  16. Metro Atlantic: Monmouth (14-5, 6-2)
  17. Mid-American: Akron (15-4, 4-2)
  18. Mid-Eastern: Norfolk State (9-12, 5-1)
  19. Missouri Valley: Wichita State (14-5, 8-0)
  20. Mountain West: San Diego State (14-6, 7-0)
  21. Northeast: Wagner (12-6, 5-2)
  22. Ohio Valley: Belmont (14-6, 6-0)
  23. Pac-12: Arizona (16-4, 4-3)
  24. Patriot League: Navy (15-5, 6-1)
  25. Southeastern: Texas A&M (17-2, 7-0)
  26. Southern: Chattanooga (17-3, 6-1)
  27. Southland: Stephen F. Austin (13-5, 6-0)
  28. Southwestern Athletic: Texas Southern (7-11, 6-0)
  29. Summit League: South Dakota State (16-5, 5-2)
  30. Sun Belt: Arkansas Little Rock (17-2, 7-1)
  31. West Coast: St. Mary’s (17-2, 8-1)
  32. Western Athletic: Grand Canyon (18-2, 5-0)

The remaining 36 “at-large” teams are then the top 36 teams in our rankings. These 36 teams are given as:

  1. West Virginia (16-3, 5-2)
  2. Kansas (16-3, 5-2)
  3. Xavier (17-2, 5-2)
  4. Michigan State (17-4, 4-4)
  5. Iowa (16-3, 7-0)
  6. North Carolina (17-2, 7-0)
  7. Virginia (14-4, 3-3)
  8. Miami (FL) (15-3, 4-2)
  9. Duke (15-5, 4-3)
  10. Michigan (15-5, 5-2)
  11. Indiana (17-3, 7-0)
  12. Maryland (17-3, 6-2)
  13. Iowa State (15-4, 4-3)
  14. Baylor (15-4, 4-3)
  15. Pittsburgh (16-3, 5-2)
  16. Florida (13-6, 5-2)
  17. USC (15-4, 4-2)
  18. Oregon (16-4, 5-2)
  19. Kentucky (15-4, 5-2)
  20. Vanderbilt (11-8, 3-4)
  21. Texas (12-7, 4-3)
  22. Butler (13-6, 2-5)
  23. Cincinnati (15-6, 5-3)
  24. Notre Dame (14-5, 5-2)
  25. Kansas State (12-7, 2-5)
  26. California (14-6, 4-3)
  27. Texas Tech (12-6, 2-5)
  28. Gonzaga (15-5, 7-2)
  29. VCU (14-5, 6-0)
  30. South Carolina (17-2, 4-2)
  31. Colorado (15-5, 4-3)
  32. Providence (17-3, 5-2)
  33. Seton Hall (13-6, 3-4)
  34. Utah (14-5, 3-3)
  35. Syracuse (13-7, 3-4)
  36. Creighton (14-6, 5-2)

The next set of teams are our current bubble teams. These are teams that are close to making the NCAA Tournament but are on the outside looking in.

  1. St. Joseph’s (15-3, 4-1)
  2. Clemson (12-7, 5-2)
  3. Florida State (12-7, 2-5)
  4. Stanford (11-7, 5-3)
  5. Washington (13-5, 5-1)
  6. George Washington (15-4, 4-2)
  7. UCLA (12-8, 3-4)
  8. Georgia Tech (11-8, 1-5)
  9. Evansville (17-3, 6-1)
  10. Georgetown (12-8, 5-2)

The current state of the NCAA Tournament is given as follows:

MarchMadnessJanuary24th

NCAA March Madness seedings based on our rankings as of January 24th, 2016.

We note that we are not predicting the field of 68, but rather giving seedings based on play up to today. Our goal is to populate the March Madness tournament with current seedings; to give indication of where teams are sitting as of today. As the conference games continue to play out, the field of 68 will become much clearer.

NCAA Rankings on January 24th, 2016:

We now present our top-to-bottom rankings based on wins, game locations, and disparity of points.

Rank Team Score Record MM Status
1 SMU 0.9901 18-1 (7-1) DQ’d
2 Villanova 0.5690 17-3 (7-1) Big East
3 Oklahoma 0.5666 16-2 (5-2) Big 12
4 Louisville 0.5651 16-3 (5-1) ACC
5 Purdue 0.5628 17-4 (5-3) Big Ten
6 West Virginia 0.5626 16-3 (5-2) At Large
7 Kansas 0.5613 16-3 (5-2) At Large
8 Xavier 0.5607 17-2 (5-2) At Large
9 Texas A&M 0.5606 17-2 (7-0) SEC
10 Michigan St 0.5599 17-4 (4-4) At Large
11 Iowa 0.5592 16-3 (7-0) At Large
12 North Carolina 0.5592 17-2 (6-0) At Large
13 Virginia 0.5555 14-4 (3-3) At Large
14 Miami FL 0.5550 15-3 (4-2) At Large
15 St Mary’s CA 0.5530 17-2 (8-1) West Coast
16 Arizona 0.5527 16-4 (4-3) Pac-12
17 Duke 0.5512 15-5 (4-3) At Large
18 Michigan 0.5511 15-5 (5-2) At Large
19 Indiana 0.5511 17-3 (7-0) At Large
20 Maryland 0.5510 17-3 (6-2) At Large
21 Iowa St 0.5508 15-4 (4-3) At Large
22 Baylor 0.5492 15-4 (4-3) At Large
23 Pittsburgh 0.5464 16-3 (5-2) At Large
24 Florida 0.5463 13-6 (5-2) At Large
25 USC 0.5462 15-4 (4-2) At Large
26 Oregon 0.5462 16-4 (5-2) At Large
27 Kentucky 0.5457 15-4 (5-2) At Large
28 Vanderbilt 0.5454 11-8 (3-4) At Large
29 Texas 0.5444 12-7 (4-3) At Large
30 Butler 0.5437 13-6 (2-5) At Large
31 Cincinnati 0.5435 15-6 (5-3) At Large
32 Wichita St 0.5430 14-5 (8-0) Missouri Valley
33 Notre Dame 0.5421 14-5 (5-2) At Large
34 Connecticut 0.5420 14-5 (4-2) American
35 Dayton 0.5414 15-3 (5-1) Atlantic 10
36 Kansas St 0.5403 12-7 (2-5) At Large
37 California 0.5400 14-6 (4-3) At Large
38 Texas Tech 0.5395 12-6 (2-5) At Large
39 Gonzaga 0.5391 15-5 (7-2) At Large
40 VA Commonwealth 0.5384 14-5 (6-0) At Large
41 South Carolina 0.5379 17-2 (4-2) At Large
42 Colorado 0.5377 15-5 (4-3) At Large
43 Providence 0.5374 17-3 (5-2) At Large
44 Seton Hall 0.5370 13-6 (3-4) At Large
45 Utah 0.5361 14-5 (3-3) At Large
46 Syracuse 0.5360 13-7 (3-4) At Large
47 Creighton 0.5350 14-6 (5-2) At Large
48 St Joseph’s PA 0.5346 15-3 (4-1) Bubble
49 Clemson 0.5345 12-7 (5-2) Bubble
50 Florida St 0.5344 12-7 (2-5) Bubble
51 Hawaii 0.5339 16-2 (5-0) Big West
52 Stanford 0.5337 11-7 (4-3) Bubble
53 Valparaiso 0.5330 17-4 (7-1) Horizon League
54 Washington 0.5328 13-5 (5-1) Bubble
55 G Washington 0.5326 15-4 (4-2) Bubble
56 UCLA 0.5326 12-8 (3-4) Bubble
57 Georgia Tech 0.5321 11-8 (1-5) Bubble
58 Evansville 0.5313 17-3 (6-1) Bubble
59 Georgetown 0.5303 12-8 (5-2) Bubble
60 Wisconsin 0.5301 11-9 (3-4)
61 Memphis 0.5300 12-6 (3-2)
62 Georgia 0.5299 11-6 (4-3)
63 Arizona St 0.5296 11-9 (1-6)
64 Tulsa 0.5294 12-6 (4-2)
65 Northwestern 0.5294 15-6 (3-5)
66 Arkansas 0.5287 9-10 (3-4)
67 Oregon St 0.5286 11-6 (2-4)
68 Ark Little Rock 0.5280 17-2 (7-1) Sun Belt
69 Ohio St 0.5276 12-8 (4-3)
70 San Diego St 0.5272 14-6 (7-0) Mountain West
71 Nebraska 0.5270 12-9 (4-4)
72 NC State 0.5265 11-9 (1-6)
73 Richmond 0.5263 10-7 (2-3)
74 Tennessee 0.5262 10-9 (3-4)
75 LSU 0.5258 12-7 (5-2)
76 Oklahoma St 0.5258 10-9 (2-5)
77 Boise St 0.5250 15-5 (6-1)
78 UT Arlington 0.5249 14-4 (5-2)
79 Virginia Tech 0.5248 12-7 (4-2)
80 Rhode Island 0.5239 11-8 (3-3)
81 UNLV 0.5228 12-8 (3-4)
82 BYU 0.5227 14-7 (5-3)
83 Marquette 0.5223 12-7 (2-5)
84 Monmouth NJ 0.5220 14-5 (6-2) MAAC
85 James Madison 0.5219 16-5 (6-2) CAA
86 UC Irvine 0.5217 16-5 (5-0)
87 Alabama 0.5215 10-8 (1-5)
88 Houston 0.5210 13-6 (3-4)
89 Grand Canyon 0.5210 18-2 (5-0) WAC
90 Wake Forest 0.5205 10-9 (1-6)
91 William & Mary 0.5201 13-6 (5-3)
92 Chattanooga 0.5200 17-3 (6-1) Southern
93 Temple 0.5199 11-7 (5-2)
94 New Mexico 0.5184 11-8 (4-2)
95 Stony Brook 0.5180 15-4 (6-0) America East
96 UAB 0.5169 17-3 (7-0) Conference USA
97 St Bonaventure 0.5169 12-5 (4-2)
98 Yale 0.5168 11-5 (2-0) Ivy League
99 Akron 0.5167 15-4 (4-2) Mid-American
100 S Illinois 0.5166 17-3 (6-1)
101 S Dakota St 0.5165 16-5 (5-2) Summit League
102 Illinois 0.5164
103 Mississippi 0.5159
104 Princeton 0.5155
105 Davidson 0.5150
106 Mississippi St 0.5148
107 Auburn 0.5130
108 Northern Iowa 0.5128
109 Penn St 0.5127
110 N Illinois 0.5125
111 UNC Wilmington 0.5124
112 Missouri 0.5121
113 TCU 0.5119
114 Belmont 0.5115 14-6 (6-0) Ohio Valley
115 Washington St 0.5114
116 Hofstra 0.5113
117 Old Dominion 0.5113
118 Fresno St 0.5112
119 MTSU 0.5112
120 Pepperdine 0.5108
121 Oakland 0.5100
122 Long Beach St 0.5099
123 Duquesne 0.5098
124 W Kentucky 0.5095
125 Indiana St 0.5094
126 Col Charleston 0.5092
127 WI Milwaukee 0.5089
128 Fordham 0.5086
129 Kent 0.5076
130 New Mexico St 0.5076
131 DePaul 0.5076
132 Mercer 0.5073
133 NE Omaha 0.5071
134 North Florida 0.5070 16-6 (5-0) Atlantic Sun
135 Northeastern 0.5069
136 Louisiana Tech 0.5066
137 Wright St 0.5064
138 Nevada 0.5064
139 Santa Barbara 0.5059
140 Weber St 0.5058 13-6 (5-1) Big Sky
141 SF Austin 0.5055 13-5 (6-0) Southland
142 Siena 0.5053
143 Georgia St 0.5049
144 UCF 0.5048
145 Ohio 0.5048
146 TAM C. Christi 0.5048
147 CS Bakersfield 0.5046
148 Toledo 0.5045
149 UNC Asheville 0.5044 14-7 (7-2) Big South
150 Utah St 0.5040
151 Columbia 0.5039
152 N Dakota St 0.5037
153 Colorado St 0.5036
154 Minnesota 0.5035
155 E Michigan 0.5034
156 Morehead St 0.5030
157 IPFW 0.5028
158 Illinois St 0.5028
159 WI Green Bay 0.5025
160 FL Gulf Coast 0.5025
161 Ball St 0.5024
162 Iona 0.5019
163 Cal Poly SLO 0.5017
164 ULL 0.5017
165 Harvard 0.5014
166 ETSU 0.5010
167 Elon 0.5007
168 High Point 0.5005
169 Wyoming 0.5003
170 Albany NY 0.5003
171 Marshall 0.4999
172 C Michigan 0.4997
173 Towson 0.4993
174 Buffalo 0.4992
175 Murray St 0.4990
176 Massachusetts 0.4990
177 Oral Roberts 0.4981
178 Tennessee Tech 0.4980
179 Detroit 0.4971
180 Navy 0.4969 15-5 (6-1) Patriot League
181 St Louis 0.4967
182 W Michigan 0.4967
183 Tulane 0.4967
184 East Carolina 0.4965
185 Tennessee St 0.4955
186 Montana 0.4952
187 George Mason 0.4947
188 St John’s 0.4947
189 Bowling Green 0.4941
190 Portland 0.4937
191 Bucknell 0.4937
192 South Dakota 0.4937
193 Radford 0.4936
194 Missouri St 0.4935
195 Winthrop 0.4933
196 Coastal Car 0.4926
197 Loyola-Chicago 0.4922
198 Boston College 0.4920
199 Vermont 0.4916
200 Loy Marymount 0.4907
201 UTEP 0.4906
202 NJIT 0.4906
203 Furman 0.4904
204 Canisius 0.4903
205 Florida Intl 0.4902
206 Army 0.4895
207 ULM 0.4890
208 IUPUI 0.4886
209 San Francisco 0.4886
210 Fairfield 0.4878
211 TX Southern 0.4877 7-11 (6-0) SWAC
212 Idaho 0.4877
213 Charlotte 0.4876
214 North Dakota 0.4874
215 Gardner Webb 0.4870
216 Denver 0.4867
217 Samford 0.4864
218 St Peter’s 0.4863
219 CS Fullerton 0.4859
220 Rutgers 0.4854
221 E Kentucky 0.4853
222 Arkansas St 0.4852
223 Air Force 0.4851
224 Southern Univ 0.4850
225 South Florida 0.4848
226 Pacific 0.4846
227 Miami OH 0.4846
228 Wagner 0.4842 12-6 (5-2) Northeast
229 Incarnate Word 0.4841
230 Drake 0.4836
231 Santa Clara 0.4836
232 Texas St 0.4829
233 Missouri KC 0.4829
234 W Carolina 0.4829
235 N Kentucky 0.4828
236 Dartmouth 0.4826
237 Wofford 0.4824
238 Cleveland St 0.4821
239 TN Martin 0.4820
240 Norfolk St 0.4818 9-12 (5-1) MEAC
241 Manhattan 0.4816
242 Drexel 0.4816
243 Jackson St 0.4816
244 Colgate 0.4815
245 La Salle 0.4814
246 Houston Bap 0.4813
247 CS Sacramento 0.4811
248 UC Riverside 0.4809
249 W Illinois 0.4809
250 E Washington 0.4808
251 Penn 0.4808
252 Appalachian St 0.4802
253 Cornell 0.4798
254 Montana St 0.4797
255 Hampton 0.4797
256 Rider 0.4797
257 Portland St 0.4796
258 Austin Peay 0.4796
259 Boston Univ 0.4792
260 Troy 0.4792
261 UC Davis 0.4790
262 Sam Houston St 0.4776
263 Delaware 0.4775
264 Charleston So 0.4774
265 South Alabama 0.4765
266 E Illinois 0.4762
267 Edwardsville 0.4755
268 Youngstown St 0.4755
269 CS Northridge 0.4751
270 Howard 0.4751
271 Utah Valley 0.4750
272 Lehigh 0.4748
273 UNC Greensboro 0.4748
274 F Dickinson 0.4748
275 Lipscomb 0.4739
276 Ga Southern 0.4739
277 Brown 0.4737
278 San Jose St 0.4735
279 San Diego 0.4727
280 Holy Cross 0.4721
281 New Hampshire 0.4721
282 Kennesaw 0.4720
283 Jacksonville 0.4720
284 Idaho St 0.4716
285 Mt St Mary’s 0.4715
286 S Carolina St 0.4713
287 Southern Miss 0.4712
288 North Texas 0.4711
289 FL Atlantic 0.4706
290 Citadel 0.4699
291 Rice 0.4695
292 Quinnipiac 0.4692
293 Seattle 0.4691
294 Niagara 0.4690
295 Jacksonville St 0.4689
296 Alabama A&M 0.4687
297 Loyola MD 0.4685
298 N Colorado 0.4685
299 Long Island 0.4678
300 St Francis NY 0.4674
301 Campbell 0.4672
302 Marist 0.4670
303 St Francis PA 0.4667
304 Liberty 0.4661
305 Stetson 0.4656
306 Presbyterian 0.4650
307 Longwood 0.4646
308 SC Upstate 0.4646
309 Robert Morris 0.4645
310 New Orleans 0.4643
311 UMBC 0.4638
312 NC Central 0.4635
313 MA Lowell 0.4631
314 Lamar 0.4619
315 Bradley 0.4615
316 VMI 0.4612
317 McNeese St 0.4608
318 Maine 0.4604
319 Cent Arkansas 0.4599
320 Coppin St 0.4599
321 Lafayette 0.4597
322 NC A&T 0.4594
323 Alabama St 0.4593
324 Hartford 0.4588
325 Abilene Chr 0.4575
326 Southern Utah 0.4567
327 Bethune-Cookman 0.4564
328 Bryant 0.4564
329 SE Louisiana 0.4560
330 UT San Antonio 0.4555
331 Savannah St 0.4548
332 Sacred Heart 0.4547
333 MD E Shore 0.4540
334 Binghamton 0.4521
335 UTRGV 0.4509
336 Nicholls St 0.4499
337 Alcorn St 0.4491
338 Northern Arizona 0.4489
339 SE Missouri St 0.4478
340 Chicago St 0.4477
341 Morgan St 0.4462
342 American Univ 0.4453
343 Grambling 0.4453
344 MS Valley St 0.4434
345 Ark Pine Bluff 0.4431
346 Florida A&M 0.4425
347 Prairie View 0.4423
348 Central Conn 0.4297
349 IL Chicago 0.0202
350 Northwestern LA 0.0195
351 Delaware St 0.0000
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