March Madness Bracketology – January 5th Edition

Last night, Oklahoma (12-1) and Kansas (13-1) put together probably the best NCAA college game of the season in a thrilling 109-106 triple overtime that favored the Jayhawks at home. Billed as a match-up between #1 teams, the game brought everything to the table as far as high stakes competition, a challenge for the lead of not only the Big 12 conference but of the national rankings, and a compelling storyline with two more anticipated match-ups later this year (February 13th in Norman, OK; potentially March 12th in Kansas City, MO). Let’s see how this game, as well as the other 53 NCAA Division I basketball games shook up our rankings over the last two days.

March Madness Current Entrants:

Using the current games played, the locations of the games, and the disparity of scores, we are able to build out a current state of the 2016 March Madness Tournament.

Rules: In order to make the tournament, a team must win their conference tournament, win the Ivy League regular season, or become an “at-large” bid that is selected based on merit by an NCAA committee.

In this post, we give an updated rankings for all 351 NCAA Division I teams. But first, we identify the current teams on pace (projected by our models) for becoming conference champions and “at-large” bids.

It should be noted that our rankings will include the suspended Southern Methodist University, whereas the AP Top 25 Coaches’ Poll does not include the Mustangs.

Fitting our models, we find that there is a 0.6631 r-squared, indicating a fairly good fit to the games played.

  1. America East: Stony Brook (9-4, 0-0)
  2. American: Cincinnati (11-4, 1-1)
  3. Atlantic 10: Dayton (11-2, 1-0)
  4. Atlantic Coast: Louisville (12-2, 1-0)
  5. Atlantic Sun: North Florida (11-6, 0-0)
  6. Big 12: Kansas (13-1,2-0)
  7. Big East: Villanova (12-2, 2-0)
  8. Big Sky: Weber State (9-5, 1-0)
  9. Big South: High Point (11-4, 4-0)
  10. Big Ten: Michigan State (14-1, 1-1)
  11. Big West: Hawaii (11-2, 0-0)
  12. Colonial Athletic: James Madison (11-4, 1-1)
  13. Conference USA: Louisiana Tech (12-2, 1-0)
  14. Horizon League: Valparaiso (11-3, 1-0)
  15. Ivy League: Yale (7-5, 0-0)
  16. Metro Atlantic: Monmouth (10-4, 2-1)
  17. Mid-American: Akron (11-2, 0-0)
  18. Mid-Eastern: Norfolk State (5-10, 1-0)
  19. Missouri Valley: Wichita State (8-5, 2-0)
  20. Mountain West: San Diego State (9-6, 2-0)
  21. Northeast: Wagner (8-5, 1-1)
  22. Ohio Valley: Belmont (9-6, 1-0)
  23. Pac-12: Arizona (13-1, 1-0)
  24. Patriot League: Army (10-4, 1-1)
  25. Southeastern: South Carolina (13-0, 0-0)
  26. Southern: Chattanooga (12-2, 1-0)
  27. Southland: Texas A&M Corpus Christi (9-3, 0-0)
  28. Southwestern Athletic: Jackson State (7-8, 2-0)
  29. Summit League: South Dakota State (13-3, 2-0)
  30. Sun Belt: UT – Arlington (11-2, 2-0)
  31. West Coast: St. Mary’s (13-1, 4-0)
  32. Western Athletic: Grand Canyon (13-2, 0-0)

The remaining 36 “at-large” teams are then the top 36 teams in our rankings. These 36 teams are given as:

  1. Oklahoma (12-1)
  2. Xavier (13-1)
  3. Purdue (13-2)
  4. West Virginia (13-1)
  5. Virginia (12-2)
  6. Miami (FL) (12-1)
  7. Iowa (11-3)
  8. North Carolina (14-2)
  9. Pittsburgh (12-1)
  10. Texas A&M (11-2)
  11. Michigan (12-3)
  12. Providence (14-1)
  13. Duke (12-2)
  14. Butler (11-3)
  15. Maryland (13-1)
  16. Florida (9-4)
  17. Iowa State (11-2)
  18. Texas Tech (11-1)
  19. Kentucky (11-2)
  20. Vanderbilt (8-5)
  21. Connecticut (10-3)
  22. California (12-3)
  23. USC (12-3)
  24. Texas (8-5)
  25. Gonzaga (12-3)
  26. Indiana (12-3)
  27. Colorado (12-3)
  28. Kansas State (10-3)
  29. Northwestern (13-2)
  30. Baylor (10-3)
  31. Oregon (11-3)
  32. Ohio State (10-5)
  33. Seton Hall (12-2)
  34. Oregon State (10-2)
  35. George Washington (12-2)
  36. Utah (11-4)

 

The next set of teams are our current bubble teams. These are teams that are close to making the NCAA Tournament but are on the outside looking in.

  1. Memphis (9-4)
  2. Notre Dame (9-4)
  3. St. Joseph’s (11-2)
  4. Arkansas Little Rock (12-1)
  5. Stanford (8-5)
  6. Arizona State (10-4)
  7. Richmond (8-5)
  8. Washington (10-4)
  9. Georgia (7-4)
  10. VCU (9-5)

The current state of the NCAA Tournament is given as follows:

MarchMadnesJanuary5th

NCAA March Madness seedings based on rankings as of January 5th, 2016.

We note that we are not predicting the field of 68, but rather giving seedings based on play up to today. Our goal is to populate the March Madness tournament with current seedings; to give indication of where teams are sitting as of today. Since most conference games have yet to be played, we expect the predicted power house teams to climb to the top of these rankings (Maryland, Kentucky, Duke); provided they win almost all their games for the remainder of this season.

NCAA Rankings on January 5th, 2016:

We now present our top-to-bottom rankings based on wins, game locations, and disparity of points.

Rank Team Score Record
1 SMU 0.9895 13 – 0
2 South Carolina 0.9734 13 – 0
3 Kansas 0.5797 13 – 1
4 Michigan St 0.5779 14 – 1
5 Oklahoma 0.5749 12 – 1
6 Villanova 0.5707 12 – 2
7 Xavier 0.5699 13 – 1
8 Purdue 0.5674 13 – 2
9 Louisville 0.5667 12 – 2
10 West Virginia 0.5636 13 – 1
11 Virginia 0.5620 12 – 2
12 Miami FL 0.5618 12 – 1
13 Arizona 0.5604 13 – 1
14 St Mary’s CA 0.5591 13 – 1
15 Iowa 0.5567 11 – 3
16 North Carolina 0.5550 14 – 2
17 Pittsburgh 0.5539 12 – 1
18 Texas A&M 0.5536 11 – 2
19 Michigan 0.5536 12 – 3
20 Providence 0.5530 14 – 1
21 Duke 0.5526 12 – 2
22 Butler 0.5517 11 – 3
23 Maryland 0.5517 13 – 1
24 Florida 0.5512 9 – 4
25 Iowa St 0.5508 11 – 2
26 Texas Tech 0.5504 11 – 1
27 Kentucky 0.5498 11 – 2
28 Vanderbilt 0.5484 8 – 5
29 Dayton 0.5470 11 – 2
30 Cincinnati 0.5462 11 – 4
31 Connecticut 0.5457 10 – 3
32 California 0.5448 12 – 3
33 USC 0.5439 12 – 3
34 Hawaii 0.5410 11 – 2
35 Texas 0.5408 8 – 5
36 Gonzaga 0.5404 12 – 3
37 Indiana 0.5398 12 – 3
38 Colorado 0.5391 12 – 3
39 Kansas St 0.5389 10 – 3
40 Northwestern 0.5377 13 – 2
41 UT Arlington 0.5377 11 – 2
42 Baylor 0.5366 10 – 3
43 Oregon 0.5360 11 – 3
44 Ohio St 0.5359 10 – 5
45 Seton Hall 0.5358 12 – 2
46 Oregon St 0.5354 10 – 2
47 G Washington 0.5354 12 – 2
48 Utah 0.5351 11 – 4
49 Memphis 0.5350 9 – 4
50 Notre Dame 0.5345 9 – 4
51 St Joseph’s PA 0.5345 11 – 2
52 Ark Little Rock 0.5344 12 – 1
53 Wichita St 0.5337 8 – 5
54 Stanford 0.5328 8 – 5
55 Arizona St 0.5327 10 – 4
56 Richmond 0.5310 8 – 5
57 Washington 0.5308 10 – 4
58 Georgia 0.5305 7 – 4
59 Valparaiso 0.5304 11 – 3
60 VA Commonwealth 0.5295 9 – 5
61 UCLA 0.5293 9 – 6
62 Florida St 0.5291 10 – 4
63 Evansville 0.5285 13 – 2
64 Virginia Tech 0.5284 10 – 5
65 Georgia Tech 0.5274 10 – 4
66 Syracuse 0.5271 10 – 5
67 Chattanooga 0.5256 12 – 2
68 Georgetown 0.5255 9 – 5
69 Monmouth NJ 0.5254 10 – 4
70 San Diego St 0.5254 9 – 6
71 Wisconsin 0.5244 9 – 6
72 BYU 0.5244 10 – 5
73 Wake Forest 0.5241 9 – 4
74 Tulsa 0.5237 8 – 6
75 Northern Iowa 0.5237 9 – 6
76 Rhode Island 0.5236 9 – 5
77 NC State 0.5234 10 – 4
78 UNLV 0.5231 9 – 5
79 S Dakota St 0.5226 13 – 3
80 Louisiana Tech 0.5224 12 – 2
81 Arkansas 0.5224 6 – 7
82 Houston 0.5223 12 – 2
83 Creighton 0.5214 10 – 5
84 Boise St 0.5213 10 – 4
85 Akron 0.5211 11 – 2
86 New Mexico 0.5210 9 – 6
87 Oklahoma St 0.5204 9 – 4
88 Alabama 0.5198 9 – 3
89 Old Dominion 0.5193 8 – 6
90 Marquette 0.5190 10 – 4
91 Grand Canyon 0.5189 13 – 2
92 S Illinois 0.5181 13 – 2
93 UAB 0.5181 11 – 3
94 Clemson 0.5180 8 – 6
95 Mississippi 0.5180 10 – 3
96 Georgia St 0.5179 8 – 3
97 Washington St 0.5173 9 – 5
98 Tennessee 0.5172 7 – 6
99 UC Irvine 0.5170 11 – 5
100 James Madison 0.5168 11 – 4
101 Fordham 0.5165
102 LSU 0.5164
103 Auburn 0.5160
104 William & Mary 0.5160
105 Yale 0.5156 7 – 5
106 Missouri 0.5155
107 Davidson 0.5154
108 Oakland 0.5154
109 Illinois 0.5153
110 UNC Wilmington 0.5146
111 Nebraska 0.5145
112 St Bonaventure 0.5143
113 Princeton 0.5141
114 Northeastern 0.5134
115 Col Charleston 0.5128
116 Stony Brook 0.5126 9 – 4
117 Penn St 0.5124
118 Ohio 0.5123
119 MTSU 0.5121
120 Duquesne 0.5120
121 Mercer 0.5114
122 Long Beach St 0.5112
123 Santa Barbara 0.5109
124 High Point 0.5104 11 – 4
125 W Kentucky 0.5102
126 Temple 0.5100
127 Fresno St 0.5098
128 Hofstra 0.5098
129 New Mexico St 0.5095
130 Harvard 0.5094
131 Kent 0.5091
132 Belmont 0.5076 9 – 6
133 E Michigan 0.5075
134 TCU 0.5073
135 TAM C. Christi 0.5072 9 – 3
136 Mississippi St 0.5070
137 N Illinois 0.5068
138 Minnesota 0.5067
139 Toledo 0.5064
140 WI Milwaukee 0.5064
141 DePaul 0.5062
142 Weber St 0.5056 9 – 5
143 WI Green Bay 0.5054
144 Iona 0.5053
145 Utah St 0.5051
146 UNC Asheville 0.5049
147 Colorado St 0.5046
148 CS Bakersfield 0.5041
149 Siena 0.5037
150 Cal Poly SLO 0.5036
151 East Carolina 0.5035
152 Nevada 0.5035
153 Massachusetts 0.5034
154 Columbia 0.5033
155 NE Omaha 0.5032
156 Indiana St 0.5031
157 Illinois St 0.5025
158 Pepperdine 0.5025
159 North Florida 0.5024 11 – 6
160 Morehead St 0.5024
161 Albany NY 0.5017
162 N Dakota St 0.5009
163 Elon 0.5008
164 Detroit 0.5008
165 IPFW 0.4999
166 Buffalo 0.4993
167 Vermont 0.4990
168 Army 0.4986 10 – 4
169 Radford 0.4981
170 Tennessee Tech 0.4981
171 Boston College 0.4980
172 Murray St 0.4980
173 Canisius 0.4980
174 UCF 0.4979
175 Idaho 0.4978
176 FL Gulf Coast 0.4973
177 Oral Roberts 0.4971
178 Air Force 0.4971
179 ETSU 0.4968
180 UTEP 0.4965
181 Wyoming 0.4964
182 Ball St 0.4960
183 Tulane 0.4958
184 Coastal Car 0.4953
185 Samford 0.4945
186 Marshall 0.4940
187 SF Austin 0.4934
188 South Dakota 0.4932
189 Miami OH 0.4928
190 George Mason 0.4926
191 Wright St 0.4924
192 Portland 0.4922
193 Bucknell 0.4922
194 St John’s 0.4921
195 W Michigan 0.4917
196 NJIT 0.4916
197 Drake 0.4906
198 Tennessee St 0.4906
199 ULL 0.4904
200 Loyola-Chicago 0.4904
201 C Michigan 0.4903
202 Towson 0.4901
203 E Kentucky 0.4899
204 Navy 0.4898
205 CS Sacramento 0.4892
206 Bowling Green 0.4887
207 ULM 0.4887
208 W Illinois 0.4885
209 Missouri KC 0.4884
210 Jackson St 0.4882 7 – 8
211 W Carolina 0.4881
212 Fairfield 0.4880
213 St Louis 0.4879
214 Montana 0.4879
215 Loy Marymount 0.4877
216 CS Fullerton 0.4869
217 Rutgers 0.4865
218 Denver 0.4865
219 Troy 0.4859
220 Incarnate Word 0.4857
221 Texas St 0.4855
222 Florida Intl 0.4850
223 Arkansas St 0.4849
224 Gardner Webb 0.4847
225 San Francisco 0.4838
226 Cleveland St 0.4837
227 Missouri St 0.4836
228 Santa Clara 0.4835
229 Sam Houston St 0.4833
230 Austin Peay 0.4833
231 Furman 0.4822
232 Winthrop 0.4819
233 South Florida 0.4817
234 Boston Univ 0.4817
235 Drexel 0.4815
236 Southern Univ 0.4814
237 Youngstown St 0.4806
238 UC Davis 0.4805
239 Charlotte 0.4805
240 Wagner 0.4805 8 – 5
241 North Dakota 0.4801
242 Delaware 0.4797
243 St Peter’s 0.4796
244 IUPUI 0.4796
245 Holy Cross 0.4791
246 TN Martin 0.4788
247 Portland St 0.4784
248 Lipscomb 0.4783
249 Cornell 0.4783
250 Norfolk St 0.4783 5 – 10
251 UC Riverside 0.4781
252 Manhattan 0.4780
253 Wofford 0.4779
254 Rider 0.4771
255 N Kentucky 0.4769
256 Alabama A&M 0.4768
257 South Alabama 0.4764
258 North Texas 0.4763
259 TX Southern 0.4762
260 Montana St 0.4761
261 Howard 0.4761
262 Penn 0.4760
263 E Washington 0.4755
264 Edwardsville 0.4754
265 Campbell 0.4753
266 Pacific 0.4750
267 Dartmouth 0.4745
268 Houston Bap 0.4740
269 Brown 0.4739
270 Lehigh 0.4731
271 Colgate 0.4729
272 Charleston So 0.4729
273 La Salle 0.4725
274 San Diego 0.4725
275 St Francis PA 0.4724
276 F Dickinson 0.4720
277 Long Island 0.4719
278 Kennesaw 0.4716
279 Quinnipiac 0.4716
280 Lamar 0.4713
281 Rice 0.4712
282 Hampton 0.4710
283 Mt St Mary’s 0.4706
284 New Orleans 0.4702
285 Seattle 0.4701
286 E Illinois 0.4698
287 New Hampshire 0.4698
288 NC A&T 0.4697
289 Marist 0.4692
290 S Carolina St 0.4692
291 Loyola MD 0.4691
292 VMI 0.4687
293 Alabama St 0.4685
294 Southern Miss 0.4680
295 Niagara 0.4678
296 CS Northridge 0.4676
297 San Jose St 0.4670
298 Utah Valley 0.4665
299 UNC Greensboro 0.4665
300 Jacksonville St 0.4665
301 N Colorado 0.4661
302 Idaho St 0.4654
303 Ga Southern 0.4653
304 FL Atlantic 0.4649
305 Citadel 0.4648
306 Stetson 0.4639
307 Jacksonville 0.4638
308 UMBC 0.4636
309 Bradley 0.4625
310 SC Upstate 0.4621
311 Robert Morris 0.4613
312 MA Lowell 0.4610
313 NC Central 0.4603
314 Savannah St 0.4603
315 Southern Utah 0.4601
316 Presbyterian 0.4596
317 Bryant 0.4595
318 Appalachian St 0.4595
319 Maine 0.4584
320 Hartford 0.4583
321 Chicago St 0.4575
322 Grambling 0.4573
323 Sacred Heart 0.4573
324 Abilene Chr 0.4570
325 Lafayette 0.4568
326 St Francis NY 0.4568
327 Longwood 0.4566
328 Binghamton 0.4561
329 Morgan St 0.4550
330 Cent Arkansas 0.4543
331 MD E Shore 0.4534
332 Bethune-Cookman 0.4529
333 SE Missouri St 0.4524
334 Nicholls St 0.4521
335 UT San Antonio 0.4487
336 UTRGV 0.4475
337 Prairie View 0.4449
338 American Univ 0.4443
339 Ark Pine Bluff 0.4414
340 MS Valley St 0.4408
341 Central Conn 0.4359
342 Florida A&M 0.4329
343 Alcorn St 0.4314
344 McNeese St 0.3242
345 Coppin St 0.0298
346 Northwestern LA 0.0275
347 IL Chicago 0.0223
348 Northern Arizona 0.0221
349 Liberty 0.0215
350 SE Louisiana 0.0207
351 Delaware St 0.0055
 
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