In a recent post, we identified the Colley Matrix methodology for ranking NBA teams. The methodology provided insight but abused the originating statistical construct in an effort to enforce a correlated, solvable, set of equations to identify a “probability” of winning. Unfortunately, we witnessed that not only were those statistical assumptions violated, but the resulting…
Defensive rating, a box score calculation, is an estimation procedure that attempts to identify the points per 100 possessions that an NBA player yields in a game. In this calculation, a player’s defensive rating is effectively eighty percent of their team’s defensive rating plus twenty percent of defensive points per scoring possessions when on the…
In 2002, Wes Colley (Princeton) developed a methodology that became a part of College Football BCS rankings lore: The Colley Method. In his original paper, Colley claims that his method is “bias free” for estimating the ranking of a team given a particular schedule. The resulting values for each team is identified as a ranking…
How likely is a player able to rebound a basketball? If you ask Second Spectrum, you will get a function that considers positioning, hustle, and conversion. The argument makes sense: First, a player needs to be in a position to have a chance at obtaining a rebound. Second, the player needs to be able to…
In a recent 2017 paper posted by Andrew Miller (Harvard University / Philadelphia 76ers) and Luke Bornn (Simon Fraser University / Sacramento Kings) titled “Possession Sketches: Mapping NBA Strategies,” the duo takes a well-known manifold learning technique called trajectory analysis and develops a methodology of classifying NBA actions through the use of functional mapping of…
In a recent post, we took a look at identifying how a team distributes the ball on offense with a deep dive look at the Brooklyn Nets. In that article we identified how to construct a community; the sets of likely passes for scores between players. This also included two-pass assists (hockey assists) where it…
In a recent podcast by Sixers Science, an analytic called the Kidd Score was unveiled. The goal of the analytic is to identify players who are great at two ancillary tasks: assists and rebounds. These two components are part of the big three statistical categories that make up the traditional triple double: points, rebounds, assists.…
In possession models and analytics such as RAPM, the ability to count free throws is crucial. Any miscalculation in computing free throws can result in an unintended dire consequence. In the case of a possession, a team’s possession may be calculated with bias and therefore comparing two teams using per possession stats becomes a flawed…
In an effort to understand shooting efficiency, terms such as points-per-possession, effective field goal percentage, and true shooting percentage have come about as methods to quantify scoring efficiency. In fact, during my coaching days in Baltimore City (2013 – 2016), I developed a metric called points responsible for (PRF) that focused on distributing points to…
A common question about identifying player tendencies on offense is to ask “how likely is this player to receive the ball during a possession?” This methodology can be aided by the quantity touches. However, a player can touch the ball with what I like to term as an empty touch. These are touches that have…
Squared Statistics: Understanding Basketball Analytics 