March Madness Bracketology: February 17th Edition

After 143 NCAA Division I Men’s basketball games were played four days ago, another 118 games have been played and yet another set of potential number one seeds have fallen. Texas Tech (15-9) picked up a 65-63 win over #3 Oklahoma (20-4) in Lubbock, Texas. The same night, #4 Iowa (20-6) fell to a then-sub-.500 Penn State (13-13) team in State College, PA. Even more in step with the chaotic race for a one seed this season, #5 North Carolina (21-5) were edged by their bitter rival #20 Duke (20-6) at home in Chapel Hill, NC; 74-73.

Other key games played out as St. Bonaventure (17-7; bubble team) lost 64-71 to lowly LaSalle (6-18). Stony Brook’s (22-5) stranglehold over the America East conference doesn’t seem too tight as Albany (22-7) picked up a much needed 82-70 win.

Meanwhile, the SEC continues to struggle as hot-starting South Carolina (21-5) lost 72-67 to Missouri (10-16) and the once division leading LSU Tigers (16-10) lost to Alabama (16-9), 76-69.

In this edition, we update the rankings based on these games and give insight to the our predicted state of the NCAA tournament entries.

March Madness Current Entrants:

Using the current games played, the locations of the games, and the disparity of scores, we are able to build out a current state of the 2016 March Madness Tournament.

Rules: In order to make the tournament, a team must win their conference tournament, win the Ivy League regular season, or become an “at-large” bid that is selected based on merit by an NCAA committee.

In this post, we give an updated rankings for all 351 NCAA Division I teams. But first, we identify the current teams on pace (projected by our models) for becoming conference champions and “at-large” bids.

It should be noted that our rankings will include the suspended Southern Methodist University, whereas the AP Top 25 Coaches’ Poll does not include the Mustangs. Also, in recent light of team discipline, Louisville has also been disqualified from the post-season.

Other Teams Disqualified: Abilene Christian, Grand Canyon, Incarnate Word, Mass – Lowell, Northern Kentucky, NJIT (Transition to Division 1); Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson (NCAA Violations: APR); Missouri, Pacific, Southern Mississippi (Self-Imposed)

Fitting our models, we find that there is a 0.5567 r-squared, indicating an “O.K. but no-where predictive” fit to the games played. Note that an r-squared value of 0.25 typically indicates coin flips. Using the rankings as determination for conference winners, we have the following teams with automatic bids:

  1. America East: Stony Brook (22-5, 13-1)
  2. American: Connecticut (18-7, 8-4)
  3. Atlantic 10: Dayton (21-4, 11-2)
  4. Atlantic Coast: Virginia (21-5, 10-4)
  5. Atlantic Sun: North Florida (18-10, 7-4)
  6. Big 12: Kansas (22-4, 10-3)
  7. Big East: Villanova (23-3, 12-1)
  8. Big Sky: Weber State (18-7, 10-2)
  9. Big South: UNC Asheville (17-9, 10-4)
  10. Big Ten: Michigan State (21-5, 8-5)
  11. Big West: Hawaii (20-3, 9-1)
  12. Colonial Athletic: UNC – Wilmington (20-5, 12-2)
  13. Conference USA: UAB (21-5, 11-2)
  14. Horizon League: Valparaiso (22-5, 12-2)
  15. Ivy League: Yale (17-5, 8-0)
  16. Metro Atlantic: Monmouth (22-5, 14-2)
  17. Mid-American: Akron (21-5, 10-3)
  18. Mid-Eastern: Hampton (15-9, 10-2)
  19. Missouri Valley: Wichita State (19-7, 12-2)
  20. Mountain West: San Diego State (19-7, 12-1)
  21. Northeast: Wagner (16-9, 9-5)
  22. Ohio Valley: Belmont (18-9, 10-3)
  23. Pac-12: Oregon (20-6, 9-4)
  24. Patriot League: Navy (18-10, 9-6)
  25. Southeastern: Kentucky (19-6, 9-3)
  26. Southern: Chattanooga (23-4, 12-2)
  27. Southland: Stephen F. Austin (19-5, 12-0)
  28. Southwestern Athletic: Southern (18-8, 10-3)
  29. Summit League: South Dakota State (20-6, 9-3)
  30. Sun Belt: Arkansas Little Rock (22-3, 12-2)
  31. West Coast: Gonzaga (20-6, 12-2)
  32. Western Athletic: New Mexico State (18-9, 9-1)

Dropped Out: Oklahoma (20-5, 8-5 Big 12), Iowa (20-6, 11-3 Big Ten)

Jumped In: Kansas, Michigan State

The remaining 36 “at-large” teams are then the top 36 teams in our rankings. These 36 teams are given as:

  1. Oklahoma (20-5, 8-5)
  2. Xavier (23-3, 11-3)
  3. Miami (FL) (21-4, 10-3)
  4. West Virginia (20-6, 9-4)
  5. Maryland (22-4, 10-3)
  6. North Carolina (21-5, 10-3)
  7. Iowa (20-6, 11-3)
  8. Duke (20-6, 9-4)
  9. Iowa State (18-8, 7-6)
  10. Purdue (21-6, 9-5)
  11. Arizona (22-5, 10-4)
  12. Baylor (19-7, 8-5)
  13. Texas (17-9, 8-5)
  14. Utah (19-7, 8-5)
  15. St. Joseph’s (22-4, 11-2)
  16. Notre Dame (18-7, 9-4)
  17. Colorado (19-8, 8-6)
  18. Indiana (21-6, 11-3)
  19. Texas Tech (16-9, 6-7)
  20. Texas A&M (19-7, 8-5)
  21. Seton Hall (18-7, 8-5)
  22. Butler (18-8, 7-7)
  23. California (17-8, 7-5)
  24. Michigan (19-8, 9-5)
  25. South Carolina (21-5, 8-5)
  26. Pittsburgh (18-7, 7-6)
  27. Providence (19-8, 7-7)
  28. Syracuse (18-9, 8-6)
  29. USC (19-7, 8-5)
  30. Florida (17-9, 8-5)
  31. Cincinnati (19-7, 9-4)
  32. Oregon State (15-9, 5-7)
  33. Wisconsin (16-9, 8-4)
  34. Alabama (16-9, 7-6)
  35. Kansas State (15-11, 4-9)
  36. Creighton (17-10, 8-6)

DROPPED OUT: Florida State (16-10, 6-8), Vanderbilt (15-11, 7-6)

SNEAKED IN: Alabama, Kansas State

The next set of teams are our current bubble teams. These are teams that are close to making the NCAA Tournament but are on the outside looking in.

  1. Florida State (16-10, 6-8)
  2. Stanford (12-11, 5-7)
  3. Washington (15-10, 7-6)
  4. Clemson (16-10, 9-5)
  5. George Washington (19-7, 8-5)
  6. Vanderbilt (15-11, 7-6)
  7. VCU (19-7, 11-2)
  8. St. Mary’s (20-4, 11-3)
  9. UCLA (14-11, 5-7)
  10. Tulsa (16-9, 8-5)

FLOATED OUT OF BUBBLE: St. Bonaventure (17-7, 9-4), LSU (16-10, 9-4), Marquette (16-10, 5-8)

CLIMBED INTO BUBBLE: VCU, St. Mary’s, UCLA

The current state of the NCAA Tournament is given as follows:

NCAA March Madness seedings based on our rankings as of February 17th, 2016.

MarchMadnessFebruary17th

NCAA March Madness seedings based on our rankings as of February 17th, 2016.

We note that we are not predicting the field of 68, but rather giving seedings based on play up to today. Our goal is to populate the March Madness tournament with current seedings; to give indication of where teams are sitting as of today. As the conference games continue to play out, the field of 68 will become much clearer.

Rank Team Score Record MM Position
1 Villanova 0.99968 23-3 (12-1) Big East
2 Xavier 0.93713 23-3 (11-3) At-Large
3 Kansas 0.93325 22-4 (10-3) Big 12
4 Oklahoma 0.91271 20-5 (8-5) At-Large
5 SMU 0.89339 21-3 (9-3) DQ: Violations
6 Virginia 0.88196 21-5 (10-4) ACC
7 Miami FL 0.87949 21-4 (10-3) At-Large
8 Michigan St 0.87356 21-5 (8-5) Big Ten
9 West Virginia 0.86893 20-6 (9-4) At-Large
10 Maryland 0.86818 22-4 (10-3) At-Large
11 North Carolina 0.85312 21-5 (10-3) At-Large
12 Iowa 0.84580 20-6 (11-3) At-Large
13 Duke 0.84305 20-6 (9-4) At-Large
14 Oregon 0.83061 20-6 (9-4) Pac 12
15 Iowa St 0.83028 18-8 (7-6) At-Large
16 Purdue 0.82973 21-6 (9-5) At-Large
17 Dayton 0.82879 21-4 (11-2) Atlantic 10
18 Arizona 0.82784 22-5 (10-4) At-Large
19 Louisville 0.82243 20-6 (9-4) DQ: Self-Imposed
20 Baylor 0.81905 19-7 (8-5) At-Large
21 Texas 0.81375 17-9 (8-5) At-Large
22 Utah 0.81351 19-7 (8-5) At-Large
23 St Joseph’s PA 0.80841 22-4 (11-2) At-Large
24 Kentucky 0.80609 19-6 (9-3) SEC
25 Notre Dame 0.80341 18-7 (9-4) At-Large
26 Colorado 0.79481 19-8 (8-6) At-Large
27 Indiana 0.79141 21-6 (11-3) At-Large
28 Texas Tech 0.78959 16-9 (6-7) At-Large
29 Texas A&M 0.78897 19-7 (8-5) At-Large
30 Seton Hall 0.78464 18-7 (8-5) At-Large
31 Butler 0.78170 18-8 (7-7) At-Large
32 California 0.77600 17-8 (7-5) At-Large
33 Michigan 0.77551 19-8 (9-5) At-Large
34 South Carolina 0.77284 21-5 (8-5) At-Large
35 Pittsburgh 0.76755 18-7 (7-6) At-Large
36 Providence 0.76438 19-8 (7-7) At-Large
37 Syracuse 0.76251 18-9 (8-6) At-Large
38 USC 0.75942 19-7 (8-5) At-Large
39 Florida 0.75640 17-9 (8-5) At-Large
40 Connecticut 0.74993 18-7 (8-4) American
41 Cincinnati 0.74811 19-7 (9-4) At-Large
42 Oregon St 0.74799 15-9 (6-7) At-Large
43 Hawaii 0.74671 20-3 (9-1) Big West
44 Wisconsin 0.74332 16-9 (8-4) At-Large
45 Alabama 0.73303 16-9 (7-6) At-Large
46 Kansas St 0.73055 15-11 (4-9) At-Large
47 Creighton 0.72688 17-10 (8-6) At-Large
48 Florida St 0.72605 16-10 (6-8) Bubble
49 Stanford 0.71930 12-11 (5-7) Bubble
50 Washington 0.71750 15-10 (7-6) Bubble
51 Clemson 0.71713 16-10 (9-5) Bubble
52 G Washington 0.71450 19-7 (8-5) Bubble
53 Wichita St 0.71373 19-7 (12-2) Missouri Valley
54 Gonzaga 0.70991 20-6 (12-2) West Coast
55 Vanderbilt 0.70767 15-11 (7-6) Bubble
56 VA Commonwealth 0.70121 19-7 (11-2) Bubble
57 St Mary’s CA 0.70095 20-4 (11-3) Bubble
58 UCLA 0.70022 14-11 (5-7) Bubble
59 Tulsa 0.69986 16-9 (8-5) Bubble
60 Ark Little Rock 0.69885 22-3 (12-2) Sun Belt
61 San Diego St 0.69601 19-7 (12-1) Mountain West
62 Marquette 0.69554 16-10 (5-8)
63 Ohio St 0.69375 17-10 (9-5)
64 LSU 0.69199 16-10 (9-4)
65 Georgia 0.68976 14-10 (7-6)
66 Temple 0.68854 16-9 (10-3)
67 Georgia Tech 0.68670 14-12 (4-9)
68 Monmouth NJ 0.68387 22-5 (14-2) MAAC
69 Houston 0.68252 19-7 (9-5)
70 Chattanooga 0.68000 23-4 (12-2) Southern
71 Georgetown 0.67923 14-13 (7-7)
72 Northwestern 0.67776 17-10 (5-9)
73 St Bonaventure 0.67732 17-7 (9-4)
74 Arizona St 0.66658 14-13 (4-10)
75 Virginia Tech 0.66231 13-13 (5-8)
76 Mississippi 0.66227 16-10 (6-7)
77 Valparaiso 0.65986 22-5 (12-2) Horizon League
78 NC State 0.64672 13-13 (3-10)
79 Akron 0.64434 21-5 (10-3) Mid-American
80 UNC Wilmington 0.63229 20-5 (12-2) Colonial Athletic
81 Yale 0.63085 17-5 (8-0) Ivy League
82 Oklahoma St 0.62852 12-14 (3-10)
83 Evansville 0.62835 21-7 (10-5)
84 Nebraska 0.62816 14-13 (6-8)
85 Davidson 0.62720 15-9 (7-6)
86 Grand Canyon 0.62256 22-4 (8-2) DQ: Transition
87 UAB 0.62221 21-5 (11-2) Conference USA
88 Penn St 0.61962 13-13 (4-9)
89 William & Mary 0.61765 17-8 (9-5)
90 Princeton 0.61645 16-5 (6-1)
91 Richmond 0.61460 14-11 (6-7)
92 BYU 0.61405 19-8 (10-4)
93 Wake Forest 0.61380 10-16 (1-13)
94 S Dakota St 0.61301 20-6 (9-3) Summit League
95 Memphis 0.61099 15-11 (6-7)
96 Arkansas 0.61098 12-14 (5-8)
97 Tennessee 0.61075 12-13 (5-7)
98 Stony Brook 0.60981 22-5 (13-1) America East
99 James Madison 0.60636 19-8 (9-5)
100 UC Irvine 0.60508 20-7 (9-2)
101 Rhode Island 0.59390
102 Illinois 0.59298
103 Hofstra 0.59254
104 Ohio 0.59187
105 TCU 0.59036
106 Boise St 0.58875
107 New Mexico 0.58793
108 S Illinois 0.58774
109 Long Beach St 0.57640
110 Illinois St 0.57617
111 Duquesne 0.57468
112 Col Charleston 0.57438
113 Fresno St 0.57034
114 Northern Iowa 0.56884
115 Mississippi St 0.56627
116 IPFW 0.56468
117 Auburn 0.56440
118 Oakland 0.56417
119 UNLV 0.56181
120 SF Austin 0.55533 19-5 (12-0) Southland
121 Nevada 0.55469
122 UT Arlington 0.55180
123 N Illinois 0.55027
124 Missouri 0.54933 DQ: Self-Imposed
125 Louisiana Tech 0.54892
126 Pepperdine 0.54841
127 MTSU 0.54583
128 W Kentucky 0.54422
129 Kent 0.54397
130 DePaul 0.54332
131 Santa Barbara 0.53642
132 New Mexico St 0.52978 18-9 (9-1) WAC
133 Siena 0.52643
134 Mercer 0.52633
135 Towson 0.52171
136 Belmont 0.52097 18-9 (10-3) Ohio Valley
137 Utah St 0.51810
138 TAM C. Christi 0.51798
139 Buffalo 0.51717
140 Fordham 0.51586
141 Toledo 0.51471
142 Ball St 0.51294
143 Albany NY 0.51154
144 Columbia 0.50969
145 Northeastern 0.50951
146 Tennessee St 0.50871
147 NE Omaha 0.50541
148 Washington St 0.50527
149 Massachusetts 0.50464
150 ULL 0.50379
151 Elon 0.50327
152 Tennessee Tech 0.50118
153 Colorado St 0.50043
154 Indiana St 0.49913
155 ETSU 0.49614
156 N Dakota St 0.49471
157 WI Green Bay 0.49470
158 WI Milwaukee 0.49192
159 Morehead St 0.48991
160 Wright St 0.48589
161 UNC Asheville 0.48460 17-9 (10-4) Big South
162 UCF 0.48441
163 CS Bakersfield 0.48255
164 Oral Roberts 0.48069
165 Iona 0.48068
166 C Michigan 0.47791
167 Old Dominion 0.47703
168 Weber St 0.47615 18-7 (10-2) Big Sky
169 Winthrop 0.47415
170 Loyola-Chicago 0.47310
171 George Mason 0.47010
172 Wyoming 0.47003
173 E Michigan 0.46999
174 Marshall 0.46937
175 Minnesota 0.46682
176 East Carolina 0.46658
177 Missouri St 0.46559
178 Detroit 0.46492
179 St John’s 0.46439
180 Coastal Car 0.45929
181 St Louis 0.45266
182 Montana 0.45212
183 Georgia St 0.45112
184 Furman 0.45036
185 ULM 0.44923
186 NJIT 0.44672 16-11 (7-4) DQ: Transition
187 High Point 0.44637
188 North Florida 0.44534 18-10 (7-4) Atlantic Sun
189 South Dakota 0.44452
190 Air Force 0.44423
191 Radford 0.44252
192 IUPUI 0.44244
193 Murray St 0.44164
194 Fairfield 0.43646
195 Tulane 0.43126
196 Denver 0.42711
197 W Michigan 0.42673
198 FL Gulf Coast 0.42653
199 Vermont 0.42571
200 San Francisco 0.42477
201 Boston College 0.42286
202 Navy 0.41746 18-10 (9-6) Patriot League
203 Wofford 0.41276
204 Bowling Green 0.40905
205 UTEP 0.40894
206 Southern Univ 0.40703 18-8 (10-3) SWAC
207 TN Martin 0.40604
208 Boston Univ 0.40354
209 Bucknell 0.39988
210 Idaho 0.39973
211 E Kentucky 0.39818
212 Wagner 0.39261 16-9 (9-5) Northeast
213 Cal Poly SLO 0.39214
214 Charlotte 0.38865
215 Miami OH 0.38820
216 Portland 0.38695
217 South Florida 0.38582
218 New Hampshire 0.38501
219 La Salle 0.38458
220 E Washington 0.38372
221 Loy Marymount 0.38116
222 Hampton 0.37934 15-9 (10-2) MEAC
223 Gardner Webb 0.37329
224 Rutgers 0.37081
225 Army 0.37044
226 Manhattan 0.37008
227 Harvard 0.36942
228 Canisius 0.36638
229 St Peter’s 0.36420
230 North Dakota 0.36254
231 South Alabama 0.36198
232 Lehigh 0.35860
233 Arkansas St 0.35800
234 Santa Clara 0.35594
235 Ga Southern 0.35461
236 W Carolina 0.35293
237 Austin Peay 0.35261
238 Cornell 0.35236
239 Samford 0.35220
240 TX Southern 0.35079
241 W Illinois 0.35070
242 Norfolk St 0.35039
243 UC Davis 0.35023
244 Colgate 0.34947
245 Rider 0.34630
246 Montana St 0.34272
247 Florida Intl 0.34080
248 S Carolina St 0.33760
249 Seattle 0.33684
250 Sam Houston St 0.33582
251 Idaho St 0.33527
252 Penn 0.33467
253 F Dickinson 0.33431
254 E Illinois 0.33408
255 Houston Bap 0.33235
256 San Jose St 0.33230
257 Youngstown St 0.33206
258 CS Sacramento 0.33185
259 Delaware 0.33145
260 N Kentucky 0.33093 DQ: Transition
261 Cleveland St 0.33027
262 UC Riverside 0.33024
263 Liberty 0.32401
264 Pacific 0.32192 DQ: Self-Imposed
265 Missouri KC 0.32119
266 Jackson St 0.32112
267 CS Northridge 0.32109
268 Jacksonville 0.32099
269 Incarnate Word 0.31961 DQ: Transition
270 Drake 0.31840
271 Kennesaw 0.31673
272 San Diego 0.31530
273 Troy 0.31381
274 Texas St 0.31302
275 Lipscomb 0.31191
276 CS Fullerton 0.30817
277 St Francis PA 0.30703
278 Appalachian St 0.30599
279 UNC Greensboro 0.30109
280 FL Atlantic 0.29789
281 Southern Miss 0.29779 DQ: Self-Imposed
282 Long Island 0.29686
283 Charleston So 0.29519
284 Mt St Mary’s 0.29415
285 North Texas 0.29320
286 Drexel 0.29189
287 MA Lowell 0.28675 DQ: Transition
288 Loyola MD 0.28606
289 Dartmouth 0.28521
290 Rice 0.28504
291 Portland St 0.27852
292 Holy Cross 0.27646
293 Citadel 0.27558
294 Utah Valley 0.27385
295 Quinnipiac 0.27239
296 Campbell 0.26740
297 St Francis NY 0.25870
298 American Univ 0.25795
299 Bradley 0.25358
300 Savannah St 0.25004
301 Edwardsville 0.24937
302 Brown 0.24837
303 Alcorn St 0.24600 DQ: APR
304 N Colorado 0.24431
305 Stetson 0.23971 DQ: APR
306 Howard 0.23713
307 SC Upstate 0.23448
308 VMI 0.22973
309 Niagara 0.22728
310 Maine 0.22506
311 Marist 0.22397
312 Longwood 0.22222
313 Presbyterian 0.22128
314 Sacred Heart 0.21714
315 IL Chicago 0.21713
316 Robert Morris 0.21455
317 Bethune-Cookman 0.21247
318 NC Central 0.21024
319 Binghamton 0.20970
320 MD E Shore 0.20402
321 NC A&T 0.19979
322 Jacksonville St 0.19441
323 Hartford 0.19266
324 Abilene Chr 0.19210 DQ: Transition
325 Lafayette 0.19051
326 UMBC 0.18628
327 New Orleans 0.18514
328 Alabama A&M 0.17233
329 Cent Arkansas 0.16877 DQ: APR
330 Alabama St 0.16420
331 Bryant 0.15526
332 Lamar 0.15468
333 Ark Pine Bluff 0.14009
334 Southern Utah 0.13975
335 SE Louisiana 0.13726
336 Morgan St 0.13671
337 UT San Antonio 0.13602
338 Coppin St 0.13383
339 Northern Arizona 0.13031
340 Northwestern LA 0.12788
341 Nicholls St 0.12293
342 McNeese St 0.11826
343 Florida A&M 0.11065 DQ: APR
344 MS Valley St 0.11034
345 UTRGV 0.10741
346 Delaware St 0.09429
347 SE Missouri St 0.09098
348 Prairie View 0.05412
349 Grambling 0.05167
350 Central Conn 0.04910
351 Chicago St 0.01368
Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s