Bracketology: Two Days Remain…

Building off our most recent posts: Bracketology: Five Days RemainingBracketology: Four Days Remain, and Bracketology: Three Days Remain, we gave our updated brackets along with a few steps for Bubble teams to take during their conference tournament play to ensure entry into the NCAA Tournament. Here we primarily focused on Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Ohio State, and Michigan State of the Big Ten Conference; Vanderbilt and Georgia of the SEC; TCU, Texas Tech, and Kansas State of the Big 12; Cal and Utah of the Pac-12; Pittsburgh, Clemson, and Syracuse of the ACC; Dayton and VCU of the Atlantic 10; and Illinois State.

From the Thursday games we witnessed:

  • TCU lose to Iowa State by 21.
  • Indiana lose to Wisconsin by 10.
  • Vanderbilt defeat Florida by 10.
  • California lose to Oregon by 8.
  • Georgia lose to Kentucky by 11.
  • Mississippi lose to Arkansas by 1.
  • Kansas State lose to West Virginia by 1.
  • Dayton lose to Davidson by 6.
  • VCU defeat George Mason by 11.

Today witnessed the end of hard work done by many of the Bubble teams. However, there is a potential bubble burst in the works with Dayton’s loss to Davidson. With VCU hanging on, the Bubble may get bailed out without having to make room for an out-of-the-At-Large pool of teams to win a conference tournament with At-Large teams existing.

No conference tournaments held championship games today. Fourteen tournaments complete on Saturday with the remaining six tournaments complete on Selection Sunday.

Before we begin, let’s take a look at the conference leaders. Capital lettered teams have won their conference tournament and are guaranteed entry. The other teams are selected due to our rating.

  • America East: Vermont (28-5, 16-0)
    • Currently in the America East Championship vs. Albany on March 8th. Winner goes to the tournament, loser is out. No At-Larges for this conference.
  • American: Cincinnati (27-4, 16-2)
    • Tournament starts March 9th. Projected 2 tournament slots.
  • Atlantic 10: Virginia Commonwealth (25-7, 14-4)
    • Tournament starts March 8th. Projected 2 tournament slots.
  • Atlantic Coast:  Duke (26-8, 11-7)
    • Tournament started yesterday. Projected 11 tournament slots. 1 teams first 10 out.
  • Atlantic Sun: FLORIDA GULF COAST (26-7, 12-2)
    • Only 1 tournament team.
  • Big 12: West Virginia (26-7, 12-6)
    • Tournament starts March 8th. Projected 7 tournament slots. 2 teams first 10 out.
  • Big East: Villanova (30-3, 15-3)
    • Tournament starts March 8th. Projected 6 tournament slots.
  • Big Sky: North Dakota (21-9, 14-4)
    • Tournament in final four. Projected 1 tournament slot.
  • Big South: WINTHROP (26-6, 15-3)
    • Only 1 tournament team.
  • Big Ten: Wisconsin (24-8, 12-6)
    • Tournament starts March 8th. Projected 7 tournament slots. 4 teams in first 10.
  • Big West: UC Irvine (20-13, 12-4)
    • Tournament starts March 9th. Projected 1 tournament slot.
  • Colonial Athletic: UNC-WILMINGTON (29-5, 15-3)
    • Only 1 tournament team.
  • Conference USA: Middle Tennessee (29-4, 17-1)
    • Tournament starts today. Projected 1 tournament slot.
  • Horizon League: NORTHERN KENTUCKY (24-10, 12-6)
    • Only 1 tournament team.
  • Ivy League: Princeton (21-6, 14-0)
    • Tournament starts March 11th. Projected 1 tournament slot.
  • Metro Atlantic: IONA (22-12, 12-8)
    • Only 1 tournament team.
  • Mid-American: Akron (26-7, 14-4)
    • Tournament starts March 9th. Projected 1 tournament slot.
  • Mid-Eastern: North Carolina Central (25-8, 13-3)
    • Tournament in final four. Projected 1 tournament slot.
  • Missouri Valley: WICHITA STATE (30-4, 17-1)
    • Only 1 tournament slot.
  • Mountain West: Nevada (27-6, 14-4)
    • Tournament starts March 8th. Projected 1 tournament slot.
  • Northeast: MT. ST. MARY’S (19-15, 14-4)
    • Only 1 tournament team.
  • Ohio Valley: JACKSONVILLE STATE (20-14, 9-7)
    • Only 1 tournament team.
  • Pac 12: Arizona (29-4, 16-2)
    • Tournament starts March 8th. Projected 4 tournament slots. 1 team in first 10.
  • Patriot League: BUCKNELL (26-8, 15-3)
    • Tournament in championship game. Projected 1 tournament slot.
  • Southeastern: Kentucky (27-5, 16-2)
    • Tournament starts March 8th. Projected 4 tournament slots. 2 teams in first 10.
  • Southern: EAST TENNESSEE STATE (27-7, 14-4)
    • Only 1 tournament team.
  • Southland: New Orleans (19-11, 13-5)
    • Tournament starts today. Projected 1 tournament slot.
  • SWAC: Texas Southern (22-11, 16-2)
    • Tournament in final four. Projected 1 tournament slot.
  • Summit League: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (18-16, 8-8)
    • Only 1 tournament team.
  • Sun Belt: UT – Arlington (25-7, 14-4)
    • Tournament starts March 8th. Projected 1 tournament slot.
  • West Coast: GONZAGA (32-1, 17-1)
    • Projected 2 tournament teams.
  • Western Athletic: New Mexico State (27-5, 11-3)
    • Tournament starts March 9th. Projected 1 tournament slot.

Current Bracket:

MMBracketMAR11

Current seedings for the NCAA Tournament based on the Jacobs models for rankings after March 10th.

We saw some changes! Let’s break them down…

#67: Syracuse (18-14, 10-8, ACC)

With several losses today (Indiana, TCU, Georgia) and key Duke and Wisconsin wins to boost Syracuse’s profile through common game win over Duke and strength of out-of-conference schedule against Wisconsin; Syracuse moves ever so slightly back into the final four teams in the NCAA Tournament. Their only worry now is that Atlantic 10 bubble that may get popped.

#69: Indiana (18-15, 7-11, Big Ten)

Indiana lost to Wisconsin. This may be it for the Hoosiers as they needed the win against Wisconsin. Due to the loss, they moved right back out of the tournament field.

#68: Vanderbilt (20-14, 10-8, SEC)

Vanderbilt finally got that big win they needed with beating Florida again; this time to make the SEC final. Vanderbilt can allay all doubts by beating Kentucky and taking the SEC crown. However, their work to date should keep them in; not surprisingly between an 10 and 12 seed.

#70: Clemson (17-15, 6-12, ACC)

Finally Clemson fell out of the standings. This was expected.

Who’s on the wrong side still?

#72: TCU (18-15, 6-12, Big 12)

TCU didn’t just lose to Iowa State; they were blown out. Not the way to finish. The only way for TCU to get in is to get extra love from the committee.

#73: Georgia (18-14, 9-9, SEC)

Kentucky extinguished most hope for Georgia today with their win over the Bulldogs. Georgia is fifth out and still has hope, but it’s slim.

#75: California (22-12, 10-8, Pac 12)

Cal finally lost in the Pac-12 tournament. This may be it for the Golden Bears. A good record and has a chance to be selected; but they are in grave danger of missing the Tournament.

#80: Mississippi (20-12, 10-8, SEC)

Ole Miss lost by one today to Arkansas. Arkansas is getting in but a lower seed. So this loss hurts Ole Miss quite a bit. They are effectively out.

 

What about those other bubble teams?

So who is in danger of dropping out of the tournament?

#65: Kansas State (19-13, 8-10, Big 12)

Kansas State finally got beat today, but they did enough to get in. The problem is the same as Syracuse’s. If VCU loses the Atlantic-10 tournament, Kansas State may be the sacrifice on Selection Sunday.

#64: Michigan State (19-13, 10-8, Big Ten)

Michigan State was beaten by Minnesota, but they should be fine with a flux of losses by bubble teams today.

#63: Providence (20-11, 10-8, Big East)

Providence still hanging on tight. They should be safe.

 

That’s where we will leave most teams today. Tomorrow, we will take a quick glimpse on how today’s games shape the rankings for the NCAA Tournament. Here, we will leave you with our comparisons to the Coaches Poll, AP Poll, and the Lunardi selection.

NOTE: As of right now (4 AM Eastern Time), Lunardi has not updated his rankings. Therefore, we leave that column blank. As soon as his rankings are updated, we will update the comparisons.

Screen Shot 2017-03-11 at 1.11.57 AM

Our rankings, team, ranking score, March Madness Position, Lunardi Ranking. #1 – #38.

Screen Shot 2017-03-11 at 1.13.05 AM

Our rankings, team, ranking score, March Madness Position, Lunardi Ranking. #38 – #75.

 

What are your thoughts? Feel free to sound off and catch the Conference Tournament action going on right now!

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