March Madness Bracketology – January 3rd Edition

/ January 3, 2016

As of the morning of January 3rd, 2016, there have been a total of 2,571 games played by the 351 NCAA division I teams. This means that we are approximately 49% of the 2015-16 season completed. On December 29th, conference play started to take off across the 36 conferences as the American, ACC, Big East, Big Ten, and Mountain West conferences started playing within their conferences.

March Madness Current Entrants:

Using the current games played, the locations of the games, and the disparity of scores, we are able to build out a current state of the 2016 March Madness Tournament.

Rules: In order to make the tournament, a team must win their conference tournament, win the Ivy League regular season, or become an “at-large” bid that is selected based on merit by an NCAA committee.

In this post, we give an updated rankings for all 351 NCAA Division I teams. But first, we identify the current teams on pace (projected by our models) for becoming conference champions and “at-large” bids.

It should be noted that our rankings will include the suspended Southern Methodist University, whereas the AP Top 25 Coaches’ Poll does not include the Mustangs.

Fitting our models, we find that there is a 0.6666 r-squared, indicating a fairly good fit to the games played.

  1. America East: Stony Brook (9-4, 0-0)
  2. American: Cincinnati (11-4, 1-1)
  3. Atlantic 10: Dayton (11-2, 1-0)
  4. Atlantic Coast: Virginia (12-2, 1-0)
  5. Atlantic Sun: North Florida (11-6, 0-0)
  6. Big 12: Oklahoma (12-0, 1-0)
  7. Big East: Villanova (12-2, 2-0)
  8. Big Sky: Weber State (9-5, 1-0)
  9. Big South: High Point (11-4, 4-0)
  10. Big Ten: Michigan State (14-1, 1-1)
  11. Big West: Hawaii (11-2, 0-0)
  12. Colonial Athletic: James Madison (11-4, 1-1)
  13. Conference USA: Louisiana Tech (12-2, 1-0)
  14. Horizon League: Valparaiso (11-3, 1-0)
  15. Ivy League: Yale (7-5, 0-0)
  16. Metro Atlantic: Monmouth (9-4, 1-1)
  17. Mid-American: Akron (11-2, 0-0)
  18. Mid-Eastern: Norfolk State (5-10, 1-0)
  19. Missouri Valley: Wichita State (7-5, 1-0)
  20. Mountain West: San Diego State (9-6, 2-0)
  21. Northeast: Wagner (7-5, 0-1)
  22. Ohio Valley: Tennessee Tech (10-5, 2-0)
  23. Pac-12: Arizona (12-1, 0-0)
  24. Patriot League: Army (10-4, 1-1)
  25. Southeastern: South Carolina (12-0, 0-0)
  26. Southern: Chattanooga (12-2, 1-0)
  27. Southland: Texas A&M Corpus Christi (9-3, 0-0)
  28. Southwestern Athletic: Jackson State (6-8, 1-0)
  29. Summit League: South Dakota State (12-3, 1-0)
  30. Sun Belt: UT – Arlington (11-2, 2-0)
  31. West Coast: St. Mary’s (13-1, 4-0)
  32. Western Athletic: Grand Canyon (12-2, 0-0)

The remaining 36 “at-large” teams are then the top 36 teams in our rankings. These 36 teams are given as:

  1. Kansas (12-1)
  2. Xavier (13-1)
  3. West Virginia (11-1)
  4. Louisville (11-2)
  5. Purdue (13-2)
  6. Miami (FL) (12-1)
  7. Iowa (11-3)
  8. North Carolina (13-2)
  9. Texas A&M (11-2)
  10. Michigan (12-3)
  11. Duke (12-2)
  12. Pittsburgh (12-1)
  13. Butler (11-3)
  14. Florida (9-4)
  15. Maryland (13-1)
  16. Vanderbilt (8-5)
  17. Kentucky (11-2)
  18. Texas Tech (11-1)
  19. Iowa State (11-2)
  20. Providence (14-1)
  21. USC (12-2)
  22. Connecticut (10-3)
  23. California (11-3)
  24. Gonzaga (12-3)
  25. Indiana (12-3)
  26. Texas (8-5)
  27. Oregon (11-2)
  28. Kansas State (10-3)
  29. Utah (11-3)
  30. Baylor (10-3)
  31. Colorado (11-3)
  32. Seton Hall (12-2)
  33. Ohio State (9-5)
  34. Northwestern (13-2)
  35. Notre Dame (9-4)
  36. George Washington (11-2)

 

The next set of teams are our current bubble teams. These are teams that are close to making the NCAA Tournament but are on the outside looking in.

  1. Stanford (8-4)
  2. Memphis (9-4)
  3. Arkansas Little Rock (12-1)
  4. Arizona State (10-3)
  5. St. Joseph’s (11-2)
  6. UCLA (9-5)
  7. Georgia (7-4)
  8. Richmond (8-5)
  9. VCU (9-5)
  10. Florida State (10-3)

The current state of the NCAA Tournament is given as follows:

MarchMadnessJanuary3rd

NCAA March Madness seedings based on rankings as of January 3rd, 2016.

We note that we are not predicting the field of 68, but rather giving seedings based on play up to today. Our goal is to populate the March Madness tournament with current seedings; to give indication of where teams are sitting as of today. Since most conference games have yet to be played, we expect the predicted power house teams to climb to the top of these rankings (Maryland, Kentucky, Duke); provided they win almost all their games for the remainder of this season.

NCAA Rankings on December 28th, 2016:

We now present our top-to-bottom rankings based on wins, game locations, and disparity of points.

Rank Team Score Record MM Status
1 SMU 0.9882 13 – 0
2 Oklahoma 0.9839 12 – 0 Big 12
3 South Carolina 0.9732 13 – 0 SEC
4 Villanova 0.6813 12 – 2 Big East
5 Michigan St 0.6794 14 – 1 Big Ten
6 Kansas 0.6786 12 – 1 At Large
7 Xavier 0.6781 13 – 1 At Large
8 Virginia 0.6770 12 – 1 ACC
9 West Virginia 0.6755 12 – 1 At Large
10 Louisville 0.6752 11 – 2 At Large
11 Purdue 0.6740 13 – 2 At Large
12 Miami FL 0.6690 12 – 1 At Large
13 St Mary’s CA 0.6676 13 – 1 West Coast
14 Arizona 0.6651 12 – 1 Pac 12
15 Iowa 0.6643 11 – 3 At Large
16 North Carolina 0.6619 13 – 2 At Large
17 Texas A&M 0.6619 11 – 2 At Large
18 Michigan 0.6619 12 – 3 At Large
19 Duke 0.6618 12 – 2 At Large
20 Pittsburgh 0.6615 12 – 1 At Large
21 Butler 0.6597 11 – 3 At Large
22 Florida 0.6595 9 – 4 At Large
23 Maryland 0.6595 13 – 1 At Large
24 Vanderbilt 0.6589 8 – 5 At Large
25 Kentucky 0.6587 11 – 2 At Large
26 Texas Tech 0.6583 11 – 1 At Large
27 Iowa St 0.6573 11 – 2 At Large
28 Providence 0.6559 14 – 1 At Large
29 USC 0.6556 12 – 2 At Large
30 Cincinnati 0.6552 11 – 4 American
31 Dayton 0.6548 11 – 2 Atlantic 10
32 Connecticut 0.6546 10 – 3 At Large
33 California 0.6526 11 – 3 At Large
34 Hawaii 0.6500 11 – 2 Big West
35 Gonzaga 0.6497 12 – 3 At Large
36 Indiana 0.6496 12 – 3 At Large
37 Texas 0.6496 8 – 5 At Large
38 Oregon 0.6494 11 – 2 At Large
39 Kansas St 0.6487 10 – 3 At Large
40 UT Arlington 0.6468 11 – 2 Sun Belt
41 Utah 0.6467 11 – 3 At Large
42 Baylor 0.6466 10 – 3 At Large
43 Colorado 0.6463 11 – 3 At Large
44 Seton Hall 0.6458 12 – 2 At Large
45 Ohio St 0.6454 9 – 5 At Large
46 Northwestern 0.6451 13 – 2 At Large
47 Wichita St 0.6449 7 – 5 Missouri Valley
48 Notre Dame 0.6445 9 – 4 At Large
49 G Washington 0.6443 11 – 2 At Large
50 Stanford 0.6441 8 – 4 Bubble
51 Memphis 0.6440 9 – 4 Bubble
52 Ark Little Rock 0.6433 12 – 1 Bubble
53 Arizona St 0.6430 10 – 3 Bubble
54 St Joseph’s PA 0.6426 11 – 2 Bubble
55 UCLA 0.6421 9 – 5 Bubble
56 Georgia 0.6415 7 – 4 Bubble
57 Richmond 0.6412 8 – 5 Bubble
58 Valparaiso 0.6410 11 – 3 Horizon League
59 VA Commonwealth 0.6405 9 – 5 Bubble
60 Florida St 0.6400 10 – 3 Bubble
61 Oregon St 0.6392 9 – 2
62 Evansville 0.6386 13 – 2
63 Washington 0.6383 9 – 4
64 Georgia Tech 0.6380 10 – 4
65 Syracuse 0.6370 10 – 5
66 San Diego St 0.6366 9 – 6 Mountain West
67 BYU 0.6364 10 – 5
68 Monmouth NJ 0.6363 9 – 4 MAAC
69 Georgetown 0.6359 9 – 5
70 Rhode Island 0.6355 9 – 5
71 Wisconsin 0.6353 9 – 6
72 Arkansas 0.6349 6 – 7
73 Chattanooga 0.6348 12 – 2 Southern
74 S Dakota St 0.6347 12 – 3 Summit League
75 UNLV 0.6346 9 – 5
76 Northern Iowa 0.6343 9 – 6
77 Tulsa 0.6343 8 – 6
78 NC State 0.6342 10 – 4
79 Creighton 0.6336 10 – 5
80 Wake Forest 0.6335 9 – 3
81 Virginia Tech 0.6333 9 – 5
82 Houston 0.6328 12 – 2
83 New Mexico 0.6327 9 – 6
84 Oklahoma St 0.6322 9 – 4
85 Louisiana Tech 0.6320 12 – 2 Conference USA
86 Boise St 0.6319 10 – 4
87 Akron 0.6319 11 – 2 Mid-American
88 Old Dominion 0.6312 8 – 6
89 Oakland 0.6312 9 – 5
90 Alabama 0.6307 9 – 3
91 Marquette 0.6303 10 – 4
92 Grand Canyon 0.6300 12 – 2 WAC
93 Clemson 0.6299 8 – 6
94 S Illinois 0.6294 13 – 2
95 Tennessee 0.6293 7 – 6
96 Fordham 0.6290 9 – 2
97 LSU 0.6287 8 – 5
98 James Madison 0.6286 11 – 4 CAA
99 Mississippi 0.6284 10 – 3
100 Georgia St 0.6283 8 – 3
101 William & Mary 0.6281
102 UC Irvine 0.6280
103 UNC Wilmington 0.6275
104 Auburn 0.6273
105 Yale 0.6269 7 – 5 Ivy League
106 Missouri 0.6268
107 MTSU 0.6265
108 Nebraska 0.6261
109 Illinois 0.6261
110 UAB 0.6260
111 Davidson 0.6260
112 St Bonaventure 0.6255
113 Washington St 0.6251
114 Northeastern 0.6248
115 Stony Brook 0.6247 9 – 4 America East
116 Ohio 0.6245
117 Harvard 0.6245
118 Col Charleston 0.6244
119 Long Beach St 0.6243
120 Princeton 0.6238
121 Mercer 0.6232
122 High Point 0.6230 11 – 4 Big South
123 Duquesne 0.6229
124 Penn St 0.6228
125 Fresno St 0.6228
126 New Mexico St 0.6224
127 Santa Barbara 0.6223
128 W Kentucky 0.6223
129 Hofstra 0.6223
130 Temple 0.6214
131 Mississippi St 0.6212
132 Belmont 0.6209
133 Kent 0.6205
134 E Michigan 0.6200
135 Minnesota 0.6195
136 Toledo 0.6194
137 WI Milwaukee 0.6191
138 Weber St 0.6191 9 – 5 Big Sky
139 DePaul 0.6186
140 Siena 0.6184
141 Colorado St 0.6182
142 UNC Asheville 0.6180
143 N Illinois 0.6179
144 TAM C. Christi 0.6178 9 – 3 Southland
145 NE Omaha 0.6173
146 WI Green Bay 0.6172
147 CS Bakersfield 0.6172
148 Utah St 0.6172
149 TCU 0.6171
150 Iona 0.6169
151 Massachusetts 0.6169
152 Cal Poly SLO 0.6168
153 Nevada 0.6164
154 Columbia 0.6162
155 Indiana St 0.6161
156 Morehead St 0.6159
157 East Carolina 0.6158
158 Pepperdine 0.6156
159 North Florida 0.6148 11 – 6 Atlantic Sun
160 Illinois St 0.6143
161 Albany NY 0.6141
162 Elon 0.6131
163 Detroit 0.6122
164 IPFW 0.6118
165 Canisius 0.6116
166 Boston College 0.6116
167 Buffalo 0.6116
168 Army 0.6114 10 – 4 Patriot League
169 ETSU 0.6113
170 Oral Roberts 0.6112
171 Tennessee Tech 0.6112 10 – 5 Ohio Valley
172 UCF 0.6112
173 Wyoming 0.6111
174 Murray St 0.6110
175 Radford 0.6104
176 Tulane 0.6100
177 FL Gulf Coast 0.6099
178 Vermont 0.6097
179 Air Force 0.6097
180 Ball St 0.6096
181 Idaho 0.6095
182 UTEP 0.6088
183 Coastal Car 0.6088
184 N Dakota St 0.6086
185 Marshall 0.6079
186 Samford 0.6077
187 Portland 0.6075
188 Wright St 0.6066
189 Miami OH 0.6066
190 SF Austin 0.6065
191 George Mason 0.6062
192 W Michigan 0.6060
193 St John’s 0.6058
194 Drake 0.6056
195 Bucknell 0.6055
196 Denver 0.6054
197 ULL 0.6050
198 NJIT 0.6047
199 C Michigan 0.6046
200 South Dakota 0.6042
201 Tennessee St 0.6040
202 E Kentucky 0.6039
203 Towson 0.6039
204 Loyola-Chicago 0.6037
205 Navy 0.6037
206 CS Sacramento 0.6035
207 ULM 0.6034
208 Missouri KC 0.6028
209 Jackson St 0.6026 6 – 8 SWAC
210 St Louis 0.6023
211 W Carolina 0.6022
212 Loy Marymount 0.6021
213 Incarnate Word 0.6019
214 W Illinois 0.6019
215 Southern Univ 0.6016
216 Montana 0.6015
217 Bowling Green 0.6014
218 CS Fullerton 0.6010
219 Rutgers 0.6005
220 Fairfield 0.6002
221 Troy 0.6001
222 Santa Clara 0.5995
223 Gardner Webb 0.5995
224 Cleveland St 0.5994
225 Arkansas St 0.5993
226 San Francisco 0.5993
227 Missouri St 0.5984
228 Texas St 0.5979
229 Sam Houston St 0.5978
230 South Florida 0.5975
231 Florida Intl 0.5972
232 Winthrop 0.5969
233 Austin Peay 0.5968
234 Drexel 0.5967
235 Furman 0.5967
236 Boston Univ 0.5957
237 UC Davis 0.5955
238 Wagner 0.5950 7 – 5 Northeast
239 UC Riverside 0.5948
240 Charlotte 0.5948
241 IUPUI 0.5945
242 Delaware 0.5943
243 Rider 0.5942
244 Lipscomb 0.5941
245 Norfolk St 0.5940 5 – 10 MEAC
246 St Peter’s 0.5939
247 Portland St 0.5937
248 Holy Cross 0.5936
249 TN Martin 0.5936
250 Wofford 0.5933
251 N Kentucky 0.5930
252 North Dakota 0.5929
253 South Alabama 0.5926
254 Alabama A&M 0.5922
255 Cornell 0.5921
256 Rice 0.5919
257 North Texas 0.5917
258 TX Southern 0.5914
259 Pacific 0.5913
260 E Washington 0.5912
261 Penn 0.5911
262 Montana St 0.5910
263 Lamar 0.5909
264 Houston Bap 0.5908
265 Dartmouth 0.5907
266 Howard 0.5907
267 Edwardsville 0.5903
268 F Dickinson 0.5901
269 Campbell 0.5900
270 Youngstown St 0.5899
271 Charleston So 0.5895
272 Hampton 0.5895
273 Manhattan 0.5891
274 Brown 0.5889
275 Lehigh 0.5885
276 San Diego 0.5883
277 Kennesaw 0.5879
278 La Salle 0.5874
279 Long Island 0.5872
280 St Francis PA 0.5871
281 Alabama St 0.5866
282 Seattle 0.5861
283 Marist 0.5857
284 E Illinois 0.5856
285 Mt St Mary’s 0.5849
286 Loyola MD 0.5849
287 FL Atlantic 0.5846
288 S Carolina St 0.5846
289 New Hampshire 0.5845
290 Quinnipiac 0.5844
291 Colgate 0.5839
292 VMI 0.5838
293 CS Northridge 0.5836
294 San Jose St 0.5833
295 N Colorado 0.5832
296 NC A&T 0.5831
297 Niagara 0.5831
298 Jacksonville St 0.5830
299 Utah Valley 0.5830
300 New Orleans 0.5829
301 UNC Greensboro 0.5827
302 Southern Miss 0.5827
303 Idaho St 0.5817
304 Ga Southern 0.5812
305 Citadel 0.5806
306 Stetson 0.5802
307 Jacksonville 0.5798
308 UMBC 0.5785
309 SC Upstate 0.5781
310 Bradley 0.5775
311 MA Lowell 0.5766
312 Appalachian St 0.5765
313 Robert Morris 0.5764
314 Savannah St 0.5760
315 Presbyterian 0.5758
316 Southern Utah 0.5758
317 NC Central 0.5754
318 Chicago St 0.5748
319 St Francis NY 0.5748
320 Hartford 0.5744
321 Maine 0.5744
322 Longwood 0.5739
323 Sacred Heart 0.5739
324 Lafayette 0.5732
325 Abilene Chr 0.5728
326 Morgan St 0.5728
327 Binghamton 0.5714
328 Bryant 0.5709
329 SE Missouri St 0.5708
330 Nicholls St 0.5707
331 MD E Shore 0.5704
332 Bethune-Cookman 0.5703
333 Cent Arkansas 0.5699
334 Grambling 0.5686
335 UTRGV 0.5658
336 Ark Pine Bluff 0.5651
337 American Univ 0.5641
338 UT San Antonio 0.5607
339 Central Conn 0.5531
340 McNeese St 0.2796
341 Florida A&M 0.2764
342 Coppin St 0.2561
343 Northwestern LA 0.2548
344 Liberty 0.2489
345 Northern Arizona 0.2482
346 IL Chicago 0.2478
347 MS Valley St 0.2387
348 Delaware St 0.2330
349 Alcorn St 0.1318
350 SE Louisiana 0.1318
351 Prairie View 0.0088
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