March Madness Bracketology – New Year’s Eve Edition

As of the morning of December 31st, 2016, there have been a total of 2,394 games played by the 351 NCAA division I teams. This means that we are approximately 45% of the 2015-16 season completed. On December 29th, conference play started to take off across the 36 conferences as the American, ACC, Big East, Big Ten, and Mountain West conferences started playing within their conferences.

 

March Madness Current Entrants:

Using the current games played, the locations of the games, and the disparity of scores, we are able to build out a current state of the 2016 March Madness Tournament.

Rules: In order to make the tournament, a team must win their conference tournament, win the Ivy League regular season, or become an “at-large” bid that is selected based on merit by an NCAA committee.

In this post, we give an updated rankings for all 351 NCAA Division I teams. But first, we identify the current teams on pace (projected by our models) for becoming conference champions and “at-large” bids.

It should be noted that our rankings will include the suspended Southern Methodist University, whereas the AP Top 25 Coaches’ Poll does not include the Mustangs.

Fitting our models, we find that there is a 0.6767 r-squared, indicating a fairly good fit to the games played.

  1. America East: Stony Brook (9-4, 0-0)
  2. American: Cincinnati (10-4, 0-1)
  3. Atlantic 10: Dayton (10-2, 0-0)
  4. Atlantic Coast: Louisville (11-2, 0-0)
  5. Atlantic Sun: North Florida (10-6, 0-0)
  6. Big 12: Oklahoma (11-0, 0-0)
  7. Big East: Xavier (12-0, 0-0)
  8. Big Sky: Weber State (8-5, 0-0)
  9. Big South: High Point (9-4, 2-0)
  10. Big Ten: Purdue (13-1, 0-0)
  11. Big West: Hawaii (10-2, 0-0)
  12. Colonial Athletic: UNC – Wilmington (8-3, 0-0)
  13. Conference USA:  Old Dominion (7-6, 0-0)
  14. Horizon League: Valparaiso (10-3, 0-0)
  15. Ivy League: Yale (6-5, 0-0)
  16. Metro Atlantic: Monmouth (9-4, 1-1)
  17. Mid-American: Akron (10-2, 0-0)
  18. Mid-Eastern: Norfolk State (5-9, 1-0)
  19. Missouri Valley: Wichita State (6-5, 0-0)
  20. Mountain West: San Diego State (8-6, 1-0)
  21. Northeast: Wagner (7-4, 0-0)
  22. Ohio Valley: Murray State (6-7, 0-0)
  23. Pac-12: Arizona (12-1, 0-0)
  24. Patriot League: Army (10-3, 1-0)
  25. Southeastern: South Carolina (12-0, 0-0)
  26. Southern: Chattanooga (11-2, 0-0)
  27. Southland: Texas A&M Corpus Christi (9-3, 0-0)
  28. Southwestern Athletic: Southern (8-5, 0-0)
  29. Summit League: South Dakota State (11-3, 0-0)
  30. Sun Belt: UT – Arlington (10-2, 1-0)
  31. West Coast: St. Mary’s (11-1, 2-0)
  32. Western Athletic: Grand Canyon (12-2, 0-0)

The remaining 36 “at-large” teams are then the top 36 teams in our rankings. These 36 teams are given as:

  1. Michigan State (13-1)
  2. West Virginia (11-1)
  3. Kansas (11-1)
  4. Virginia (11-1)
  5. Villanova (10-2)
  6. Vanderbilt (8-4)
  7. Miami (FL) (11-1)
  8. Pittsburgh (11-1)
  9. Duke (11-2)
  10. Butler (11-1)
  11. North Carolina (12-2)
  12. Iowa (10-3)
  13. Michigan (11-3)
  14. Texas A&M (10-2)
  15. Florida (8-4)
  16. Kentucky (10-2)
  17. Connecticut (9-3)
  18. USC (11-2)
  19. Gonzaga (10-3)
  20. Texas Tech (10-1)
  21. Iowa State (11-1)
  22. Maryland (12-1)
  23. Indiana (11-3)
  24. Baylor (10-2)
  25. Texas (8-4)
  26. California (10-3)
  27. Oregon (11-2)
  28. Colorado (11-2)
  29. Kansas State (10-2)
  30. Utah (11-2)
  31. Ohio State (9-5)
  32. Providence (12-1)
  33. Northwestern (13-1)
  34. Seton Hall (11-2)
  35. Georgia (7-3)
  36. UCLA (9-4)

The next set of teams are our current bubble teams. These are teams that are close to making the NCAA Tournament but are on the outside looking in.

  1. Memphis (9-3)
  2. Notre Dame (9-3)
  3. Stanford (7-4)
  4. Arizona State (10-3)
  5. George Washington (11-2)
  6. Arkansas – Little Rock (11-1)
  7. Richmond (8-4)
  8. VCU (8-5)
  9. Florida State (10-2)
  10. Syracuse (10-4)

The current state of the NCAA Tournament is given as follows:

 

MarchMadnessDecember31st

NCAA March Madness seedings based on rankings as of December 31st, 2016.

We note that we are not predicting the field of 68, but rather giving seedings based on play up to today. Our goal is to populate the March Madness tournament with current seedings; to give indication of where teams are sitting as of today. Since most conference games have yet to be played, we expect the predicted power house teams to climb to the top of these rankings (Maryland, Kentucky, Duke); provided they win almost all their games for the remainder of this season.

NCAA Rankings on December 28th, 2016:

We now present our top-to-bottom rankings based on wins, game locations, and disparity of points.

Rank Team Score Record MM Status
1 Xavier 0.9937 12-0 (0-0) Big East
2 SMU 0.9896 12-0 (1-0)
3 Oklahoma 0.9882 11-0 (0-0) Big 12
4 South Carolina 0.9724 12-0 (0-0) SEC
5 Louisville 0.9092 11-2 (0-0) ACC
6 Purdue 0.9079 13-1 (1-0) Big Ten
7 Michigan St 0.9078 13-1 (0-1) At-Large
8 West Virginia 0.9066 11-1 (0-0) At-Large
9 Kansas 0.9063 11-1 (0-0) At-Large
10 Virginia 0.9033 11-1 (0-0) At-Large
11 Villanova 0.9023 10-2 (0-0) At-Large
12 Vanderbilt 0.8999 8-4 (0-0) At-Large
13 Miami FL 0.8986 11-1 (0-0) At-Large
14 St Mary’s CA 0.8977 11-1 (2-0) West Coast
15 Pittsburgh 0.8969 11-1 (1-0) At-Large
16 Duke 0.8964 11-2 (0-0) At-Large
17 Butler 0.8961 11-1 (0-0) At-Large
18 Arizona 0.8954 12-1 (0-0) Pac 12
19 North Carolina 0.8949 12-2 (1-0) At-Large
20 Iowa 0.8947 10-3 (1-0) At-Large
21 Michigan 0.8936 11-3 (1-0) At-Large
22 Texas A&M 0.8935 10-2 (0-0) At-Large
23 Florida 0.8923 8-4 (0-0) At-Large
24 Kentucky 0.8903 10-2 (0-0) At-Large
25 Cincinnati 0.8896 10-4 (0-1) American
26 Connecticut 0.8891 9-3 (0-0) At-Large
27 USC 0.8886 11-2 (0-0) At-Large
28 Gonzaga 0.8884 10-3 (2-0) At-Large
29 Texas Tech 0.8873 10-1 (0-0) At-Large
30 Iowa St 0.8873 11-1 (0-0) At-Large
31 Maryland 0.8860 12-1 (1-0) At-Large
32 Indiana 0.8858 11-3 (1-0) At-Large
33 Baylor 0.8855 10-2 (0-0) At-Large
34 Texas 0.8853 8-4 (0-0) At-Large
35 Dayton 0.8852 10-2 (0-0) Atlantic 10
36 California 0.8845 10-3 (0-0) At-Large
37 Oregon 0.8835 11-2 (0-0) At-Large
38 Colorado 0.8833 11-2 (0-0) At-Large
39 Kansas St 0.8826 10-2 (0-0) At-Large
40 Utah 0.8819 11-2 (0-0) At-Large
41 UT Arlington 0.8819 10-2 (1-0) Sun Belt
42 Ohio St 0.8813 9-5 (1-0) At-Large
43 Providence 0.8806 12-1 (0-0) At-Large
44 Northwestern 0.8804 13-1 (1-0) At-Large
45 Seton Hall 0.8804 11-2 (1-0) At-Large
46 Hawaii 0.8803 10-2 (0-0) Big West
47 Georgia 0.8796 7-3 (0-0) At-Large
48 UCLA 0.8792 9-4 (0-0) At-Large
49 Memphis 0.8792 9-3 (1-0) Bubble
50 Notre Dame 0.8792 9-3 (0-0) Bubble
51 Wichita St 0.8788 6-5 (0-0) Missouri Valley
52 Stanford 0.8780 7-4 (0-0) Bubble
53 Arizona St 0.8779 10-3 (0-0) Bubble
54 Valparaiso 0.8775 10-3 (0-0) Horizon League
55 G Washington 0.8773 11-2 (0-0) Bubble
56 Ark Little Rock 0.8771 11-1 (1-0) Bubble
57 Richmond 0.8770 8-4 (0-0) Bubble
58 VA Commonwealth 0.8767 8-5 (0-0) Bubble
59 Florida St 0.8760 10-2 (0-0) Bubble
60 Syracuse 0.8757 10-4 (0-1) Bubble
61 Georgia Tech 0.8756 10-3 (0-0)
62 Rhode Island 0.8754 8-5 (0-0)
63 Washington 0.8752 8-4 (0-0)
64 Arkansas 0.8750 6-6 (0-0)
65 San Diego St 0.8750 8-6 (1-0) Mountain West
66 BYU 0.8749 9-4 (0-0)
67 Old Dominion 0.8746 7-6 (0-0) Conference USA
68 Oregon St 0.8745 9-2 (0-0)
69 St Joseph’s PA 0.8742 10-2 (0-0)
70 Northern Iowa 0.8733 9-5 (1-0)
71 Virginia Tech 0.8727 8-5 (0-0)
72 S Dakota St 0.8727 11-3 (0-0) Summit League
73 Evansville 0.8723 12-2 (1-0)
74 Monmouth NJ 0.8723 9-4 (1-1) MAAC
75 Creighton 0.8722 9-4 (0-0)
76 Georgetown 0.8720 8-5 (1-0)
77 NC State 0.8718 10-3 (0-0)
78 Wisconsin 0.8715 8-6 (0-1)
79 Tulsa 0.8714 8-5 (0-1)
80 UNLV 0.8714 9-5 (0-1)
81 Oakland 0.8713 8-5 (0-0)
82 Tennessee 0.8704 7-5 (0-0)
83 UNC Wilmington 0.8699 8-3 (0-0) Colonial Athletic
84 Fordham 0.8699 9-2 (0-0)
85 William & Mary 0.8697 8-3 (0-0)
86 Chattanooga 0.8695 11-2 (0-0) Southern
87 James Madison 0.8695 10-3 (0-0)
88 Akron 0.8693 10-2 (0-0) Mid-American
89 Oklahoma St 0.8692 8-4 (0-0)
90 New Mexico 0.8692 8-6 (1-0)
91 Wake Forest 0.8692 9-3 (0-0)
92 Clemson 0.8683 7-6 (0-1)
93 Nebraska 0.8682 8-6 (0-1)
94 Boise St 0.8679 9-4 (0-0)
95 Marquette 0.8672 10-3 (0-1)
96 Davidson 0.8670 8-3 (0-0)
97 Grand Canyon 0.8668 12-2 (0-0) WAC
98 MTSU 0.8662 8-4 (0-0)
99 Houston 0.8659 11-2 (1-0)
100 Mississippi 0.8659 10-2 (0-0)
101 Yale 0.8657 6-5 (0-0) Ivy League
102 Georgia St 0.8656
103 Washington St 0.8656
104 S Illinois 0.8651
105 Louisiana Tech 0.8651
106 LSU 0.8651
107 UAB 0.8649
108 Temple 0.8644
109 Missouri 0.8643
110 Harvard 0.8641
111 Ohio 0.8641
112 Illinois 0.8641
113 Alabama 0.8640
114 UC Irvine 0.8639
115 Fresno St 0.8638
116 Auburn 0.8635
117 New Mexico St 0.8635
118 Col Charleston 0.8632
119 Long Beach St 0.8632
120 Penn St 0.8629
121 E Michigan 0.8628
122 Northeastern 0.8625
123 High Point 0.8624 9-4 (2-0) Big South
124 Mississippi St 0.8624
125 W Kentucky 0.8624
126 Princeton 0.8623
127 WI Milwaukee 0.8618
128 UNC Asheville 0.8617
129 Morehead St 0.8617
130 Stony Brook 0.8617 9-4 (0-0) America East
131 Belmont 0.8615
132 Santa Barbara 0.8614
133 TCU 0.8614
134 St Bonaventure 0.8613
135 Minnesota 0.8610
136 NE Omaha 0.8607
137 Weber St 0.8604 8-5 (0-0) Big Sky
138 Toledo 0.8603
139 Duquesne 0.8600
140 East Carolina 0.8598
141 Colorado St 0.8595
142 Columbia 0.8594
143 Mercer 0.8591
144 Siena 0.8588
145 Kent 0.8588
146 Massachusetts 0.8586
147 Iona 0.8583
148 N Illinois 0.8580
149 DePaul 0.8578
150 CS Bakersfield 0.8575
151 Cal Poly SLO 0.8574
152 Pepperdine 0.8572
153 Nevada 0.8567
154 Utah St 0.8567
155 WI Green Bay 0.8564
156 Wyoming 0.8560
157 TAM C. Christi 0.8556 9-3 (0-0) Southland
158 Indiana St 0.8555
159 Albany NY 0.8553
160 Hofstra 0.8552
161 North Florida 0.8548 10-6 (0-0) Atlantic Sun
162 Portland 0.8543
163 Illinois St 0.8541
164 Elon 0.8539
165 Army 0.8538 10-3 (1-0) Patriot
166 Radford 0.8538
167 Samford 0.8538
168 Canisius 0.8536
169 Detroit 0.8534
170 CS Sacramento 0.8530
171 Boston College 0.8530
172 Tulane 0.8529
173 Idaho 0.8526
174 Buffalo 0.8526
175 Oral Roberts 0.8523
176 Drake 0.8521
177 UCF 0.8521
178 Miami OH 0.8520
179 Incarnate Word 0.8519
180 FL Gulf Coast 0.8519
181 Marshall 0.8519
182 N Dakota St 0.8515
183 UTEP 0.8515
184 George Mason 0.8515
185 IPFW 0.8514
186 W Michigan 0.8511
187 C Michigan 0.8510
188 W Carolina 0.8507
189 Murray St 0.8507 6-7 (0-0) Ohio Valley
190 Southern Univ 0.8506 8-5 (0-0) SWAC
191 Coastal Car 0.8505
192 Vermont 0.8502
193 ETSU 0.8500
194 Tennessee Tech 0.8496
195 Air Force 0.8495
196 St Louis 0.8494
197 ULL 0.8490
198 Denver 0.8489
199 St John’s 0.8488
200 NJIT 0.8488
201 Missouri KC 0.8487
202 Tennessee St 0.8487
203 Loyola-Chicago 0.8487
204 Ball St 0.8484
205 South Dakota 0.8483
206 Wright St 0.8483
207 Bucknell 0.8475
208 Towson 0.8475
209 Fairfield 0.8473
210 Jackson St 0.8472
211 Loy Marymount 0.8470
212 ULM 0.8466
213 SF Austin 0.8464
214 Rutgers 0.8463
215 CS Fullerton 0.8463
216 E Kentucky 0.8459
217 Montana 0.8458
218 Troy 0.8456
219 Winthrop 0.8452
220 Texas St 0.8451
221 W Illinois 0.8448
222 Florida Intl 0.8440
223 Drexel 0.8435
224 Cleveland St 0.8435
225 UC Davis 0.8434
226 Bowling Green 0.8433
227 E Washington 0.8430
228 Norfolk St 0.8429 5-9 (1-0) MEAC
229 Missouri St 0.8427
230 Alabama A&M 0.8425
231 Wagner 0.8425 7-4 (0-0) Northeast
232 Arkansas St 0.8424
233 N Kentucky 0.8424
234 Navy 0.8423
235 Santa Clara 0.8423
236 Dartmouth 0.8421
237 South Alabama 0.8421
238 Austin Peay 0.8421
239 Montana St 0.8420
240 Gardner Webb 0.8420
241 Sam Houston St 0.8418
242 Rider 0.8409
243 South Florida 0.8408
244 Boston Univ 0.8407
245 St Peter’s 0.8407
246 UC Riverside 0.8405
247 San Francisco 0.8405
248 Wofford 0.8402
249 Holy Cross 0.8402
250 Edwardsville 0.8400
251 Brown 0.8400
252 North Texas 0.8393
253 Charlotte 0.8391
254 Howard 0.8386
255 Pacific 0.8383
256 TN Martin 0.8382
257 Portland St 0.8382
258 Rice 0.8381
259 Long Island 0.8377
260 Lipscomb 0.8372
261 San Diego 0.8372
262 Furman 0.8372
263 Delaware 0.8371
264 Lamar 0.8369
265 IUPUI 0.8365
266 Youngstown St 0.8364
267 Hampton 0.8363
268 Campbell 0.8358
269 Cornell 0.8358
270 Charleston So 0.8355
271 Seattle 0.8350
272 North Dakota 0.8349
273 F Dickinson 0.8346
274 Kennesaw 0.8344
275 Jacksonville St 0.8341
276 VMI 0.8341
277 Houston Bap 0.8340
278 TX Southern 0.8337
279 Niagara 0.8335
280 UNC Greensboro 0.8332
281 Lehigh 0.8331
282 Penn 0.8326
283 Alabama St 0.8323
284 FL Atlantic 0.8323
285 Manhattan 0.8323
286 Quinnipiac 0.8321
287 Southern Miss 0.8319
288 San Jose St 0.8319
289 Marist 0.8317
290 New Orleans 0.8316
291 Utah Valley 0.8313
292 New Hampshire 0.8312
293 Loyola MD 0.8308
294 Idaho St 0.8307
295 La Salle 0.8306
296 St Francis PA 0.8299
297 Colgate 0.8299
298 Mt St Mary’s 0.8294
299 E Illinois 0.8293
300 CS Northridge 0.8289
301 Stetson 0.8288
302 N Colorado 0.8287
303 Robert Morris 0.8285
304 Appalachian St 0.8285
305 Ga Southern 0.8283
306 Jacksonville 0.8279
307 NC A&T 0.8274
308 Chicago St 0.8273
309 S Carolina St 0.8256
310 MA Lowell 0.8256
311 Bradley 0.8255
312 NC Central 0.8255
313 Cent Arkansas 0.8243
314 Hartford 0.8242
315 Citadel 0.8240
316 Binghamton 0.8240
317 UMBC 0.8240
318 St Francis NY 0.8238
319 Savannah St 0.8236
320 Sacred Heart 0.8235
321 Morgan St 0.8231
322 SC Upstate 0.8218
323 Longwood 0.8214
324 Maine 0.8212
325 Southern Utah 0.8207
326 SE Missouri St 0.8204
327 Nicholls St 0.8203
328 Lafayette 0.8202
329 MD E Shore 0.8201
330 Bethune-Cookman 0.8195
331 Presbyterian 0.8188
332 UTRGV 0.8172
333 American Univ 0.8126
334 UT San Antonio 0.8113
335 Ark Pine Bluff 0.8108
336 Central Conn 0.8075
337 McNeese St 0.7485
338 Abilene Chr 0.7477
339 Coppin St 0.7355
340 Bryant 0.7338
341 Liberty 0.7320
342 IL Chicago 0.7308
343 Northern Arizona 0.7277
344 MS Valley St 0.7255
345 Grambling 0.7242
346 Delaware St 0.7158
347 Florida A&M 0.6940
348 Prairie View 0.6900
349 SE Louisiana 0.6740
350 Alcorn St 0.6507
351 Northwestern LA 0.0260

 

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