March Madness Bracketology: Final Rankings

Now that the conference tournaments have wrapped up, we are left to identify who is in and who is out. Many analysts use RPI, gut feelings, and perceived “key wins” to help them identify a top 36 team “At-Large” seeding. Others such as Lunardi, Massey, and Colley, incorporate metrics observed based on wins, points, locations, and relative wins. In our method, we use locations, relative wins, wins, weighted score, player injury, and recency of wins. The calculated scores can be found in the rankings below.

Conferences are broken down as follows: Conference Name (with number of teams expected to make the NCAA Tournament), Tournament Champion (automatic bid into NCAA Tournament), Still Alive (Not eliminated from conference tournament as of this morning), Predicted Winner (of the conference tournament), At-Large (currently sitting as an at-large if they are not in (or predicted to win) the conference tournament), Bubble Team (If they are within the top 15 teams after the at-larges are determined).

We note that an “At-Large” team is a team that is not projected to be a conference winner; is not a conference winner; and is in the Top 36 remaining spots. This is in no way indicative of saying that these teams are safe. The “Bubble” teams are teams that are within the Top 68 and have not been proposed an “At-Large” bid or won a conference championship.

1. America East (1)

Tournament Champion: Stony Brook

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

2. American (2)

Tournament Champion: Connecticut

At-Large: Cincinnati

Bubble Team: Tulsa, Houston

 

3. Atlantic 10 (3)

Tournament Champion: Saint Joe’s

At-Large: Dayton

Bubble Team: George Washington, VCU

 

4. Atlantic Coast (7)

Tournament Champion: North Carolina

At-Large: Virginia, Miami, Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Bubble Team: Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech

 

5. Atlantic Sun (1)

Tournament Champion: Florida Gulf Coast

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

6. Big 12 (8)

Tournament Champion: Kansas

At-Large: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas State

Bubble Team: None

 

7. Big East (5)

Tournament Champion: Seton Hall

At-Large: Xavier, Villanova, Butler, Providence

Bubble Team: Marquette, Creighton, Georgetown

 

8. Big Sky (1)

Tournament Champion: Weber State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

9. Big South (1)

Tournament Champion: UNC – Asheville

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

10. Big Ten (7)

Tournament Champion: Michigan State

At-Large: Maryland, Purdue, Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan

Bubble Team: Northwestern, Ohio State

 

11. Big West (1)

Tournament Champion: Hawaii

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

12. Colonial Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: NC – Wilmington

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

13. Conference USA (1)

Tournament Champion: Middle Tennessee State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

14. Horizon League (1)

Tournament Champion: UW – Green Bay

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: Valparaiso

 

15. Ivy League (1)

Tournament Champion: Yale (No Tournament, Regular Season Champion)

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

16. Metro Atlantic Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: Iona

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

17. Mid-American (1)

Tournament Champion: Buffalo

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

18. Mid-Eastern Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: Hampton

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

19. Missouri Valley (2)

Tournament Champion: Northern Iowa

At-Large: Wichita State

Bubble Team: None

 

20. Mountain West (1)

Tournament Champion: Fresno State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: San Diego State

 

21. Northeast (1)

Tournament Champion: Farleigh Dickinson

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

22. Ohio Valley (1)

Tournament Champion: Austin Peay

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

23. Pacific 12 (6)

Tournament Champion: Oregon

At-Large: Utah, Arizona, California, Colorado, USC, Oregon State

Bubble Team: Stanford, Washington, UCLA

 

24. Patriot League (1)

Tournament Champion: Holy Cross

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

25. Southeastern (4)

Tournament Champion: Kentucky

At-Large: Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Florida

Bubble Team: Georgia, South Carolina

 

26. Southern (1)

Tournament Champion: Chattanooga

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

27. Southland (1)

Tournament Champion: Stephen F. Austin

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

28. Southwestern Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: Southern

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

29. Summit League (1)

Tournament Champion: South Dakota State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

30. Sun Belt (1)

Tournament Champion: Arkansas Little Rock

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

31. West Coast (2)

Tournament Champion: Gonzaga

At-Large: St. Mary’s

Bubble Team: None

 

32. Western Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: CS Bakersfield

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

Current State of NCAA Tournament

Using our rankings system, we place the 68 teams into the tournament bracket as follows:

MarchMadnessMarch13

Current Rankings (Jacobs’ Model)

The overall rankings according to our current model shows the scores for each of the 351 NCAA Division I teams.

Rank Team Score MM Position
1 Kansas 0.99608 Big 12
2 Villanova 0.96103 At-Large
3 Michigan St 0.95374 Big Ten
4 Virginia 0.93724 At-Large
5 West Virginia 0.93200 At-Large
6 North Carolina 0.92474 ACC
7 Oklahoma 0.91820 At-Large
8 Xavier 0.89837 At-Large
9 Louisville 0.88775 DQ: Self-Imposed
10 Miami FL 0.88339 At-Large
11 Purdue 0.88104 At-Large
12 Oregon 0.87843 Pac 12
13 SMU 0.86920 DQ: Violations
14 Kentucky 0.86431 SEC
15 Arizona 0.85859 At-Large
16 Texas A&M 0.84999 At-Large
17 Indiana 0.84946 At-Large
18 Duke 0.84777 At-Large
19 Utah 0.84262 At-Large
20 Baylor 0.84086 At-Large
21 Iowa St 0.83902 At-Large
22 Maryland 0.83391 At-Large
23 Iowa 0.83362 At-Large
24 Seton Hall 0.82946 Big East
25 Texas 0.82267 At-Large
26 California 0.81922 At-Large
27 Butler 0.79741 At-Large
28 Connecticut 0.79282 American
29 Vanderbilt 0.79009 At-Large
30 Pittsburgh 0.78267 At-Large
31 Wichita St 0.77827 At-Large
32 Notre Dame 0.77800 At-Large
33 Michigan 0.77741 At-Large
34 Texas Tech 0.77685 At-Large
35 Cincinnati 0.77296 At-Large
36 Gonzaga 0.77059 West Coast
37 USC 0.76806 At-Large
38 Dayton 0.76765 At-Large
39 St Mary’s CA 0.76552 At-Large
40 Wisconsin 0.76174 At-Large
41 St Joseph’s PA 0.75901 Atlantic 10
42 Florida 0.75865 At-Large
43 Colorado 0.75831 At-Large
44 Syracuse 0.75657 At-Large
45 Providence 0.75510 At-Large
46 Kansas St 0.74488 At-Large
47 Oregon St 0.74360 At-Large
48 South Carolina 0.74350 Bubble
49 VA Commonwealth 0.73982 Bubble
50 Florida St 0.73564 Bubble
51 Washington 0.72822 Bubble
52 Georgia Tech 0.72619 Bubble
53 Creighton 0.72305 Bubble
54 Clemson 0.72055 Bubble
55 Virginia Tech 0.72041 Bubble
56 San Diego St 0.71514 Bubble
57 Hawaii 0.70794 Big West
58 Georgia 0.70574 Bubble
59 UCLA 0.70446 Bubble
60 Tulsa 0.70287 Bubble
61 G Washington 0.70241 Bubble
62 Ohio St 0.70028 Bubble
63 Northwestern 0.69854 Bubble
64 Houston 0.69679 Bubble
65 Valparaiso 0.69434 Bubble
66 Stanford 0.69152 Bubble
67 Marquette 0.68368 Bubble
68 Georgetown 0.68257 Bubble
69 Ark Little Rock 0.68063 Sun Belt
70 St Bonaventure 0.67873
71 NC State 0.67537
72 BYU 0.67395
73 LSU 0.67162
74 Arizona St 0.66983
75 Alabama 0.66906
76 Temple 0.66882
77 Mississippi 0.66536
78 Arkansas 0.66289
79 Memphis 0.65644
80 Yale 0.65532 Ivy League
81 Evansville 0.64813
82 Northern Iowa 0.64811 Missouri Valley
83 Nebraska 0.64713
84 SF Austin 0.64207 Southland
85 Oklahoma St 0.63993
86 Mississippi St 0.63565
87 Tennessee 0.63295
88 Rhode Island 0.63267
89 Monmouth NJ 0.63220
90 Davidson 0.63136
91 UNC Wilmington 0.62958 Colonial
92 Princeton 0.62819
93 Richmond 0.62447
94 S Dakota St 0.62152 Summit
95 UAB 0.62132
96 Fresno St 0.62073 Mountain West
97 Chattanooga 0.61709 Southern
98 William & Mary 0.61693
99 Boise St 0.61379
100 Wake Forest 0.60850
101 James Madison 0.60789
102 UC Irvine 0.60562
103 Hofstra 0.60492
104 Akron 0.60256
105 Long Beach St 0.59790
106 Illinois 0.59655
107 Penn St 0.59547
108 TCU 0.59195
109 Stony Brook 0.59065 America East
110 UNLV 0.57919
111 New Mexico 0.57874
112 Santa Barbara 0.57853
113 UT Arlington 0.57836
114 Oakland 0.57611
115 Grand Canyon 0.57145
116 Ohio 0.57097
117 Iona 0.56775 Metro Atlantic
118 Illinois St 0.56446
119 S Illinois 0.55897
120 MTSU 0.55708 Conference USA
121 New Mexico St 0.55274
122 Nevada 0.54975
123 CS Bakersfield 0.54682 Western
124 Missouri 0.54375
125 Col Charleston 0.54307
126 Fordham 0.54182
127 Pepperdine 0.54117
128 Duquesne 0.54006
129 IPFW 0.53867
130 Old Dominion 0.53815
131 Northeastern 0.53598
132 WI Green Bay 0.53474 Horizon
133 W Kentucky 0.53144
134 Utah St 0.52994
135 Buffalo 0.52946 Mid-American
136 Columbia 0.52827
137 WI Milwaukee 0.52466
138 Colorado St 0.52455
139 Siena 0.52367
140 Belmont 0.52323
141 Auburn 0.51994
142 Massachusetts 0.51802
143 Morehead St 0.51642
144 DePaul 0.51436
145 Towson 0.51298
146 Louisiana Tech 0.51294
147 UNC Asheville 0.51192 Big South
148 Wright St 0.51087
149 Toledo 0.51065
150 ETSU 0.50916
151 Kent 0.50843
152 Weber St 0.50824 Big Sky
153 N Illinois 0.50773
154 E Michigan 0.50557
155 ULM 0.50441
156 Ball St 0.50344
157 N Dakota St 0.50074
158 ULL 0.49974
159 NE Omaha 0.49943
160 TAM C. Christi 0.49896
161 Albany NY 0.49882
162 Washington St 0.49877
163 Indiana St 0.49162
164 C Michigan 0.49011
165 Minnesota 0.48948
166 Wyoming 0.48646
167 Marshall 0.48634
168 Elon 0.48560
169 High Point 0.48455
170 UCF 0.48111
171 Winthrop 0.47743
172 East Carolina 0.47184
173 Montana 0.46938
174 Oral Roberts 0.46798
175 Loyola-Chicago 0.46741
176 George Mason 0.46700
177 Vermont 0.46376
178 Tennessee St 0.46205
179 North Florida 0.45955
180 Detroit 0.45774
181 FL Gulf Coast 0.45772 Atlantic Sun
182 Mercer 0.45770
183 Murray St 0.45715
184 Tulane 0.45450
185 Coastal Car 0.45413
186 Tennessee Tech 0.45240
187 Georgia St 0.45160
188 St John’s 0.44992
189 W Michigan 0.44750
190 Denver 0.44489
191 St Louis 0.44408
192 Fairfield 0.44305
193 Missouri St 0.43822
194 Harvard 0.43798
195 Furman 0.43417
196 Bucknell 0.43156
197 San Francisco 0.42618
198 Portland 0.42242
199 Boston College 0.42210
200 South Florida 0.41499
201 South Dakota 0.41473
202 Loy Marymount 0.41426
203 Wagner 0.41404
204 Idaho 0.41355
205 Air Force 0.41342
206 Wofford 0.41202
207 W Carolina 0.41117
208 TN Martin 0.40906
209 IUPUI 0.40871
210 Miami OH 0.40833
211 UTEP 0.40740
212 Bowling Green 0.40689
213 NJIT 0.40269
214 E Kentucky 0.40189
215 Charlotte 0.39927
216 La Salle 0.39916
217 Cal Poly SLO 0.39767
218 Radford 0.39688
219 North Dakota 0.39361
220 Lehigh 0.39228
221 Navy 0.38798
222 St Peter’s 0.38661
223 Ga Southern 0.38490
224 Austin Peay 0.38467 Ohio Valley
225 Santa Clara 0.38352
226 Texas St 0.38326
227 Gardner Webb 0.37897
228 E Washington 0.37789
229 Canisius 0.37766
230 TX Southern 0.37743
231 Rutgers 0.37084
232 Rider 0.37051
233 W Illinois 0.37002
234 Army 0.36976
235 UNC Greensboro 0.36822
236 Pacific 0.36756
237 Drexel 0.36683
238 Hampton 0.36596 Mid-Eastern
239 Samford 0.36595
240 Boston Univ 0.36412
241 UC Davis 0.36234
242 UC Riverside 0.36183
243 Sam Houston St 0.36086
244 San Jose St 0.35959
245 South Alabama 0.35462
246 Manhattan 0.35107
247 Florida Intl 0.34920
248 Montana St 0.34693
249 Southern Univ 0.34655 Southwestern
250 Penn 0.34647
251 New Hampshire 0.34627
252 CS Northridge 0.34459
253 Drake 0.34128
254 Norfolk St 0.33985
255 Arkansas St 0.33903
256 CS Fullerton 0.33857
257 Missouri KC 0.33775
258 Incarnate Word 0.33753
259 Dartmouth 0.33706
260 Appalachian St 0.33364
261 Delaware 0.33243
262 E Illinois 0.33180
263 CS Sacramento 0.32693
264 F Dickinson 0.32488 Northeast
265 Kennesaw 0.32310
266 Portland St 0.32280
267 Colgate 0.32041
268 N Kentucky 0.31886
269 San Diego 0.31859
270 Idaho St 0.31724
271 S Carolina St 0.31488
272 North Texas 0.31100
273 Jacksonville 0.31064
274 Cornell 0.30901
275 Seattle 0.30874
276 Rice 0.30772
277 Cleveland St 0.30739
278 Youngstown St 0.30684
279 Lipscomb 0.30627
280 Houston Bap 0.30624
281 Jackson St 0.30615
282 Troy 0.30196
283 Liberty 0.29500
284 Utah Valley 0.28634
285 Holy Cross 0.28488 Patriot
286 Brown 0.28416
287 Mt St Mary’s 0.27710
288 Quinnipiac 0.27354
289 Campbell 0.27240
290 Loyola MD 0.27180
291 St Francis NY 0.27083
292 Stetson 0.26963
293 Charleston So 0.26943
294 Long Island 0.26908
295 FL Atlantic 0.26691
296 Southern Miss 0.26275
297 N Colorado 0.25883
298 Longwood 0.25510
299 Edwardsville 0.25316
300 Bradley 0.24962
301 VMI 0.24938
302 St Francis PA 0.24917
303 Marist 0.24895
304 Niagara 0.24317
305 MA Lowell 0.23993
306 Citadel 0.23882
307 American Univ 0.23782
308 Presbyterian 0.23649
309 SC Upstate 0.23322
310 Sacred Heart 0.22919
311 Savannah St 0.22566
312 Alabama St 0.22507
313 Jacksonville St 0.22287
314 Robert Morris 0.22026
315 Bethune-Cookman 0.22007
316 NC Central 0.21033
317 Hartford 0.20909
318 Morgan St 0.20810
319 Howard 0.20562
320 Abilene Chr 0.20483
321 Alcorn St 0.20187
322 Lafayette 0.19646
323 Binghamton 0.19547
324 Alabama A&M 0.19294
325 IL Chicago 0.19157
326 MD E Shore 0.18865
327 New Orleans 0.18383
328 UMBC 0.18254
329 SE Louisiana 0.18244
330 Maine 0.17852
331 Lamar 0.17337
332 Coppin St 0.16986
333 NC A&T 0.16789
334 UT San Antonio 0.15542
335 McNeese St 0.15461
336 Cent Arkansas 0.15379
337 Nicholls St 0.15167
338 Northwestern LA 0.14685
339 Southern Utah 0.14002
340 UTRGV 0.13651
341 Bryant 0.13220
342 Northern Arizona 0.12912
343 Prairie View 0.12081
344 SE Missouri St 0.11072
345 MS Valley St 0.10460
346 Ark Pine Bluff 0.10275
347 Florida A&M 0.06831
348 Delaware St 0.06716
349 Grambling 0.05698
350 Chicago St 0.05170
351 Central Conn 0.05124
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