Now that the conference tournaments have wrapped up, we are left to identify who is in and who is out. Many analysts use RPI, gut feelings, and perceived “key wins” to help them identify a top 36 team “At-Large” seeding. Others such as Lunardi, Massey, and Colley, incorporate metrics observed based on wins, points, locations, and relative wins. In our method, we use locations, relative wins, wins, weighted score, player injury, and recency of wins. The calculated scores can be found in the rankings below.

Conferences are broken down as follows: Conference Name (with number of teams expected to make the NCAA Tournament), Tournament Champion (automatic bid into NCAA Tournament), Still Alive (Not eliminated from conference tournament as of this morning), Predicted Winner (of the conference tournament), At-Large (currently sitting as an at-large if they are not in (or predicted to win) the conference tournament), Bubble Team (If they are within the top 15 teams after the at-larges are determined).

We note that an “At-Large” team is a team that is not projected to be a conference winner; is not a conference winner; and is in the Top 36 remaining spots. This is in no way indicative of saying that these teams are safe. The “Bubble” teams are teams that are within the Top 68 and have not been proposed an “At-Large” bid or won a conference championship.

1. America East (1)

Tournament Champion: Stony Brook

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

2. American (2)

Tournament Champion: Connecticut

At-Large: Cincinnati

Bubble Team: Tulsa, Houston

 

3. Atlantic 10 (3)

Tournament Champion: Saint Joe’s

At-Large: Dayton

Bubble Team: George Washington, VCU

 

4. Atlantic Coast (7)

Tournament Champion: North Carolina

At-Large: Virginia, Miami, Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Bubble Team: Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech

 

5. Atlantic Sun (1)

Tournament Champion: Florida Gulf Coast

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

6. Big 12 (8)

Tournament Champion: Kansas

At-Large: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas State

Bubble Team: None

 

7. Big East (5)

Tournament Champion: Seton Hall

At-Large: Xavier, Villanova, Butler, Providence

Bubble Team: Marquette, Creighton, Georgetown

 

8. Big Sky (1)

Tournament Champion: Weber State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

9. Big South (1)

Tournament Champion: UNC – Asheville

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

10. Big Ten (7)

Tournament Champion: Michigan State

At-Large: Maryland, Purdue, Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan

Bubble Team: Northwestern, Ohio State

 

11. Big West (1)

Tournament Champion: Hawaii

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

12. Colonial Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: NC – Wilmington

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

13. Conference USA (1)

Tournament Champion: Middle Tennessee State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

14. Horizon League (1)

Tournament Champion: UW – Green Bay

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: Valparaiso

 

15. Ivy League (1)

Tournament Champion: Yale (No Tournament, Regular Season Champion)

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

16. Metro Atlantic Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: Iona

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

17. Mid-American (1)

Tournament Champion: Buffalo

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

18. Mid-Eastern Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: Hampton

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

19. Missouri Valley (2)

Tournament Champion: Northern Iowa

At-Large: Wichita State

Bubble Team: None

 

20. Mountain West (1)

Tournament Champion: Fresno State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: San Diego State

 

21. Northeast (1)

Tournament Champion: Farleigh Dickinson

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

22. Ohio Valley (1)

Tournament Champion: Austin Peay

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

23. Pacific 12 (6)

Tournament Champion: Oregon

At-Large: Utah, Arizona, California, Colorado, USC, Oregon State

Bubble Team: Stanford, Washington, UCLA

 

24. Patriot League (1)

Tournament Champion: Holy Cross

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

25. Southeastern (4)

Tournament Champion: Kentucky

At-Large: Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Florida

Bubble Team: Georgia, South Carolina

 

26. Southern (1)

Tournament Champion: Chattanooga

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

27. Southland (1)

Tournament Champion: Stephen F. Austin

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

28. Southwestern Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: Southern

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

29. Summit League (1)

Tournament Champion: South Dakota State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

30. Sun Belt (1)

Tournament Champion: Arkansas Little Rock

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

31. West Coast (2)

Tournament Champion: Gonzaga

At-Large: St. Mary’s

Bubble Team: None

 

32. Western Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: CS Bakersfield

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

Current State of NCAA Tournament

Using our rankings system, we place the 68 teams into the tournament bracket as follows:

Current Rankings (Jacobs’ Model)

The overall rankings according to our current model shows the scores for each of the 351 NCAA Division I teams.

Rank	Team	Score	MM Position
1	Kansas	0.99608	Big 12
2	Villanova	0.96103	At-Large
3	Michigan St	0.95374	Big Ten
4	Virginia	0.93724	At-Large
5	West Virginia	0.93200	At-Large
6	North Carolina	0.92474	ACC
7	Oklahoma	0.91820	At-Large
8	Xavier	0.89837	At-Large
9	Louisville	0.88775	DQ: Self-Imposed
10	Miami FL	0.88339	At-Large
11	Purdue	0.88104	At-Large
12	Oregon	0.87843	Pac 12
13	SMU	0.86920	DQ: Violations
14	Kentucky	0.86431	SEC
15	Arizona	0.85859	At-Large
16	Texas A&M	0.84999	At-Large
17	Indiana	0.84946	At-Large
18	Duke	0.84777	At-Large
19	Utah	0.84262	At-Large
20	Baylor	0.84086	At-Large
21	Iowa St	0.83902	At-Large
22	Maryland	0.83391	At-Large
23	Iowa	0.83362	At-Large
24	Seton Hall	0.82946	Big East
25	Texas	0.82267	At-Large
26	California	0.81922	At-Large
27	Butler	0.79741	At-Large
28	Connecticut	0.79282	American
29	Vanderbilt	0.79009	At-Large
30	Pittsburgh	0.78267	At-Large
31	Wichita St	0.77827	At-Large
32	Notre Dame	0.77800	At-Large
33	Michigan	0.77741	At-Large
34	Texas Tech	0.77685	At-Large
35	Cincinnati	0.77296	At-Large
36	Gonzaga	0.77059	West Coast
37	USC	0.76806	At-Large
38	Dayton	0.76765	At-Large
39	St Mary’s CA	0.76552	At-Large
40	Wisconsin	0.76174	At-Large
41	St Joseph’s PA	0.75901	Atlantic 10
42	Florida	0.75865	At-Large
43	Colorado	0.75831	At-Large
44	Syracuse	0.75657	At-Large
45	Providence	0.75510	At-Large
46	Kansas St	0.74488	At-Large
47	Oregon St	0.74360	At-Large
48	South Carolina	0.74350	Bubble
49	VA Commonwealth	0.73982	Bubble
50	Florida St	0.73564	Bubble
51	Washington	0.72822	Bubble
52	Georgia Tech	0.72619	Bubble
53	Creighton	0.72305	Bubble
54	Clemson	0.72055	Bubble
55	Virginia Tech	0.72041	Bubble
56	San Diego St	0.71514	Bubble
57	Hawaii	0.70794	Big West
58	Georgia	0.70574	Bubble
59	UCLA	0.70446	Bubble
60	Tulsa	0.70287	Bubble
61	G Washington	0.70241	Bubble
62	Ohio St	0.70028	Bubble
63	Northwestern	0.69854	Bubble
64	Houston	0.69679	Bubble
65	Valparaiso	0.69434	Bubble
66	Stanford	0.69152	Bubble
67	Marquette	0.68368	Bubble
68	Georgetown	0.68257	Bubble
69	Ark Little Rock	0.68063	Sun Belt
70	St Bonaventure	0.67873
71	NC State	0.67537
72	BYU	0.67395
73	LSU	0.67162
74	Arizona St	0.66983
75	Alabama	0.66906
76	Temple	0.66882
77	Mississippi	0.66536
78	Arkansas	0.66289
79	Memphis	0.65644
80	Yale	0.65532	Ivy League
81	Evansville	0.64813
82	Northern Iowa	0.64811	Missouri Valley
83	Nebraska	0.64713
84	SF Austin	0.64207	Southland
85	Oklahoma St	0.63993
86	Mississippi St	0.63565
87	Tennessee	0.63295
88	Rhode Island	0.63267
89	Monmouth NJ	0.63220
90	Davidson	0.63136
91	UNC Wilmington	0.62958	Colonial
92	Princeton	0.62819
93	Richmond	0.62447
94	S Dakota St	0.62152	Summit
95	UAB	0.62132
96	Fresno St	0.62073	Mountain West
97	Chattanooga	0.61709	Southern
98	William & Mary	0.61693
99	Boise St	0.61379
100	Wake Forest	0.60850
101	James Madison	0.60789
102	UC Irvine	0.60562
103	Hofstra	0.60492
104	Akron	0.60256
105	Long Beach St	0.59790
106	Illinois	0.59655
107	Penn St	0.59547
108	TCU	0.59195
109	Stony Brook	0.59065	America East
110	UNLV	0.57919
111	New Mexico	0.57874
112	Santa Barbara	0.57853
113	UT Arlington	0.57836
114	Oakland	0.57611
115	Grand Canyon	0.57145
116	Ohio	0.57097
117	Iona	0.56775	Metro Atlantic
118	Illinois St	0.56446
119	S Illinois	0.55897
120	MTSU	0.55708	Conference USA
121	New Mexico St	0.55274
122	Nevada	0.54975
123	CS Bakersfield	0.54682	Western
124	Missouri	0.54375
125	Col Charleston	0.54307
126	Fordham	0.54182
127	Pepperdine	0.54117
128	Duquesne	0.54006
129	IPFW	0.53867
130	Old Dominion	0.53815
131	Northeastern	0.53598
132	WI Green Bay	0.53474	Horizon
133	W Kentucky	0.53144
134	Utah St	0.52994
135	Buffalo	0.52946	Mid-American
136	Columbia	0.52827
137	WI Milwaukee	0.52466
138	Colorado St	0.52455
139	Siena	0.52367
140	Belmont	0.52323
141	Auburn	0.51994
142	Massachusetts	0.51802
143	Morehead St	0.51642
144	DePaul	0.51436
145	Towson	0.51298
146	Louisiana Tech	0.51294
147	UNC Asheville	0.51192	Big South
148	Wright St	0.51087
149	Toledo	0.51065
150	ETSU	0.50916
151	Kent	0.50843
152	Weber St	0.50824	Big Sky
153	N Illinois	0.50773
154	E Michigan	0.50557
155	ULM	0.50441
156	Ball St	0.50344
157	N Dakota St	0.50074
158	ULL	0.49974
159	NE Omaha	0.49943
160	TAM C. Christi	0.49896
161	Albany NY	0.49882
162	Washington St	0.49877
163	Indiana St	0.49162
164	C Michigan	0.49011
165	Minnesota	0.48948
166	Wyoming	0.48646
167	Marshall	0.48634
168	Elon	0.48560
169	High Point	0.48455
170	UCF	0.48111
171	Winthrop	0.47743
172	East Carolina	0.47184
173	Montana	0.46938
174	Oral Roberts	0.46798
175	Loyola-Chicago	0.46741
176	George Mason	0.46700
177	Vermont	0.46376
178	Tennessee St	0.46205
179	North Florida	0.45955
180	Detroit	0.45774
181	FL Gulf Coast	0.45772	Atlantic Sun
182	Mercer	0.45770
183	Murray St	0.45715
184	Tulane	0.45450
185	Coastal Car	0.45413
186	Tennessee Tech	0.45240
187	Georgia St	0.45160
188	St John’s	0.44992
189	W Michigan	0.44750
190	Denver	0.44489
191	St Louis	0.44408
192	Fairfield	0.44305
193	Missouri St	0.43822
194	Harvard	0.43798
195	Furman	0.43417
196	Bucknell	0.43156
197	San Francisco	0.42618
198	Portland	0.42242
199	Boston College	0.42210
200	South Florida	0.41499
201	South Dakota	0.41473
202	Loy Marymount	0.41426
203	Wagner	0.41404
204	Idaho	0.41355
205	Air Force	0.41342
206	Wofford	0.41202
207	W Carolina	0.41117
208	TN Martin	0.40906
209	IUPUI	0.40871
210	Miami OH	0.40833
211	UTEP	0.40740
212	Bowling Green	0.40689
213	NJIT	0.40269
214	E Kentucky	0.40189
215	Charlotte	0.39927
216	La Salle	0.39916
217	Cal Poly SLO	0.39767
218	Radford	0.39688
219	North Dakota	0.39361
220	Lehigh	0.39228
221	Navy	0.38798
222	St Peter’s	0.38661
223	Ga Southern	0.38490
224	Austin Peay	0.38467	Ohio Valley
225	Santa Clara	0.38352
226	Texas St	0.38326
227	Gardner Webb	0.37897
228	E Washington	0.37789
229	Canisius	0.37766
230	TX Southern	0.37743
231	Rutgers	0.37084
232	Rider	0.37051
233	W Illinois	0.37002
234	Army	0.36976
235	UNC Greensboro	0.36822
236	Pacific	0.36756
237	Drexel	0.36683
238	Hampton	0.36596	Mid-Eastern
239	Samford	0.36595
240	Boston Univ	0.36412
241	UC Davis	0.36234
242	UC Riverside	0.36183
243	Sam Houston St	0.36086
244	San Jose St	0.35959
245	South Alabama	0.35462
246	Manhattan	0.35107
247	Florida Intl	0.34920
248	Montana St	0.34693
249	Southern Univ	0.34655	Southwestern
250	Penn	0.34647
251	New Hampshire	0.34627
252	CS Northridge	0.34459
253	Drake	0.34128
254	Norfolk St	0.33985
255	Arkansas St	0.33903
256	CS Fullerton	0.33857
257	Missouri KC	0.33775
258	Incarnate Word	0.33753
259	Dartmouth	0.33706
260	Appalachian St	0.33364
261	Delaware	0.33243
262	E Illinois	0.33180
263	CS Sacramento	0.32693
264	F Dickinson	0.32488	Northeast
265	Kennesaw	0.32310
266	Portland St	0.32280
267	Colgate	0.32041
268	N Kentucky	0.31886
269	San Diego	0.31859
270	Idaho St	0.31724
271	S Carolina St	0.31488
272	North Texas	0.31100
273	Jacksonville	0.31064
274	Cornell	0.30901
275	Seattle	0.30874
276	Rice	0.30772
277	Cleveland St	0.30739
278	Youngstown St	0.30684
279	Lipscomb	0.30627
280	Houston Bap	0.30624
281	Jackson St	0.30615
282	Troy	0.30196
283	Liberty	0.29500
284	Utah Valley	0.28634
285	Holy Cross	0.28488	Patriot
286	Brown	0.28416
287	Mt St Mary’s	0.27710
288	Quinnipiac	0.27354
289	Campbell	0.27240
290	Loyola MD	0.27180
291	St Francis NY	0.27083
292	Stetson	0.26963
293	Charleston So	0.26943
294	Long Island	0.26908
295	FL Atlantic	0.26691
296	Southern Miss	0.26275
297	N Colorado	0.25883
298	Longwood	0.25510
299	Edwardsville	0.25316
300	Bradley	0.24962
301	VMI	0.24938
302	St Francis PA	0.24917
303	Marist	0.24895
304	Niagara	0.24317
305	MA Lowell	0.23993
306	Citadel	0.23882
307	American Univ	0.23782
308	Presbyterian	0.23649
309	SC Upstate	0.23322
310	Sacred Heart	0.22919
311	Savannah St	0.22566
312	Alabama St	0.22507
313	Jacksonville St	0.22287
314	Robert Morris	0.22026
315	Bethune-Cookman	0.22007
316	NC Central	0.21033
317	Hartford	0.20909
318	Morgan St	0.20810
319	Howard	0.20562
320	Abilene Chr	0.20483
321	Alcorn St	0.20187
322	Lafayette	0.19646
323	Binghamton	0.19547
324	Alabama A&M	0.19294
325	IL Chicago	0.19157
326	MD E Shore	0.18865
327	New Orleans	0.18383
328	UMBC	0.18254
329	SE Louisiana	0.18244
330	Maine	0.17852
331	Lamar	0.17337
332	Coppin St	0.16986
333	NC A&T	0.16789
334	UT San Antonio	0.15542
335	McNeese St	0.15461
336	Cent Arkansas	0.15379
337	Nicholls St	0.15167
338	Northwestern LA	0.14685
339	Southern Utah	0.14002
340	UTRGV	0.13651
341	Bryant	0.13220
342	Northern Arizona	0.12912
343	Prairie View	0.12081
344	SE Missouri St	0.11072
345	MS Valley St	0.10460
346	Ark Pine Bluff	0.10275
347	Florida A&M	0.06831
348	Delaware St	0.06716
349	Grambling	0.05698
350	Chicago St	0.05170
351	Central Conn	0.05124