March Madness Bracketology Conference Watch: March 12th Edition

Only five games remain for the conference tournaments. As we are under 24 hours from the selection committee’s announcements, we have a couple remaining games to resolve. Recently, Buffalo knocked off Akron to capture the Mid-American conference championship; Cal. State Bakersfield wrestled away the Western Athletic conference from New Mexico State; and San Diego State lost to Fresno State for the Mountain West conference bid. In each case, the loser of each tournament have effectively fallen out of the NCAA Tournament and into the NIT (or lower tournament). Tomorrow, with only five games remaining, the same scenario may unfold as Memphis plays against Connecticut in the American Athletic conference and Louisiana Monroe challenges Arkansas Little Rock in the Sun Belt championship.

Conferences are broken down as follows: Conference Name (with number of teams expected to make the NCAA Tournament), Tournament Champion (automatic bid into NCAA Tournament), Still Alive (Not eliminated from conference tournament as of this morning), Predicted Winner (of the conference tournament), At-Large (currently sitting as an at-large if they are not in (or predicted to win) the conference tournament), Bubble Team (If they are within the top 15 teams after the at-larges are determined).

We note that an “At-Large” team is a team that is not projected to be a conference winner; is not a conference winner; and is in the Top 36 remaining spots. This is in no way indicative of saying that these teams are safe. The “Bubble” teams are teams that are within the Top 68 and have not been proposed an “At-Large” bid or won a conference championship.

1. America East (1)

Tournament Champion: Stony Brook

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

2. American (2)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Connecticut, Memphis

Predicted Winner: Connecticut

At-Large: Cincinnati

Bubble Team: Tulsa, Houston

 

3. Atlantic 10 (3)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: VCU, Saint Joe’s

Predicted Winner: Saint Joe’s

At-Large: Dayton, VCU

Bubble Team: George Washington

 

4. Atlantic Coast (7)

Tournament Champion: North Carolina

At-Large: Virginia, Miami, Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Bubble Team: Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech

 

5. Atlantic Sun (1)

Tournament Champion: Florida Gulf Coast

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

6. Big 12 (8)

Tournament Champion: Kansas

At-Large: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas State

Bubble Team: None

 

7. Big East (5)

Tournament Champion: Seton Hall

At-Large: Xavier, Villanova, Butler, Providence

Bubble Team: Marquette, Creighton, Georgetown

 

8. Big Sky (1)

Tournament Champion: Weber State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

9. Big South (1)

Tournament Champion: UNC – Asheville

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

10. Big Ten (7)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Michigan State, Purdue

Predicted Winner: Michigan State

At-Large: Maryland, Purdue, Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan

Bubble Team: Northwestern, Ohio State

 

11. Big West (1)

Tournament Champion: Hawaii

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

12. Colonial Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: NC – Wilmington

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

13. Conference USA (1)

Tournament Champion: Middle Tennessee State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

14. Horizon League (1)

Tournament Champion: UW – Green Bay

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: Valparaiso

 

15. Ivy League (1)

Tournament Champion: Yale (No Tournament, Regular Season Champion)

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

16. Metro Atlantic Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: Iona

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

17. Mid-American (1)

Tournament Champion: Buffalo

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

18. Mid-Eastern Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: Hampton

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

19. Missouri Valley (2)

Tournament Champion: Northern Iowa

At-Large: Wichita State

Bubble Team: None

 

20. Mountain West (1)

Tournament Champion: Fresno State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: San Diego State

 

21. Northeast (1)

Tournament Champion: Farleigh Dickinson

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

22. Ohio Valley (1)

Tournament Champion: Austin Peay

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

23. Pacific 12 (6)

Tournament Champion: Oregon

At-Large: Utah, Arizona, California, Colorado, USC

Bubble Team: Stanford, Washington, UCLA, Oregon State

 

24. Patriot League (1)

Tournament Champion: Holy Cross

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

25. Southeastern (4)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Texas A&M, Kentucky

Predicted Winner: Kentucky

At-Large: Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Florida

Bubble Team: Georgia, South Carolina

 

26. Southern (1)

Tournament Champion: Chattanooga

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

27. Southland (1)

Tournament Champion: Stephen F. Austin

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

28. Southwestern Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: Southern

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

29. Summit League (1)

Tournament Champion: South Dakota State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

30. Sun Belt (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Little Rock, UL Monroe

Predicted Winner: Arkansas Little Rock

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

31. West Coast (2)

Tournament Champion: Gonzaga

At-Large: St. Mary’s

Bubble Team: None

 

32. Western Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: CS Bakersfield

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

Current State of NCAA Tournament

Using our rankings system, we place the 68 teams into the tournament bracket as follows:

MarchMadnessMarch12

 

Current Rankings (Jacobs’ Model)

The overall rankings according to our current model shows the scores for each of the 351 NCAA Division I teams.

Rank Team Score MM Position
1 Kansas 0.99638 Big 12
2 Villanova 0.96134 At-Large
3 Michigan St 0.94892 Big Ten
4 Virginia 0.93790 At-Large
5 West Virginia 0.93289 At-Large
6 North Carolina 0.92545 ACC
7 Oklahoma 0.91914 At-Large
8 Xavier 0.89910 At-Large
9 Louisville 0.88782 DQ: Self-Imposed
10 Purdue 0.88601 At-Large
11 Miami FL 0.88407 At-Large
12 Oregon 0.87905 Pac 12
13 SMU 0.86987 DQ: Violations
14 Arizona 0.85918 At-Large
15 Kentucky 0.85847 SEC
16 Texas A&M 0.85716 At-Large
17 Indiana 0.85006 At-Large
18 Duke 0.84832 At-Large
19 Utah 0.84306 At-Large
20 Baylor 0.84195 At-Large
21 Iowa St 0.83991 At-Large
22 Maryland 0.83438 At-Large
23 Iowa 0.83414 At-Large
24 Seton Hall 0.83001 Big East
25 Texas 0.82361 At-Large
26 California 0.81964 At-Large
27 Butler 0.79817 At-Large
28 Vanderbilt 0.79098 At-Large
29 Connecticut 0.78835 American
30 Pittsburgh 0.78358 At-Large
31 Wichita St 0.77900 At-Large
32 Notre Dame 0.77874 At-Large
33 Michigan 0.77815 At-Large
34 Texas Tech 0.77743 At-Large
35 Cincinnati 0.77356 At-Large
36 Gonzaga 0.77125 West Coast
37 USC 0.76864 At-Large
38 Dayton 0.76790 At-Large
39 St Mary’s CA 0.76613 At-Large
40 Wisconsin 0.76265 At-Large
41 Florida 0.75898 At-Large
42 Colorado 0.75884 At-Large
43 Syracuse 0.75730 At-Large
44 Providence 0.75544 At-Large
45 St Joseph’s PA 0.75077 Atlantic 10
46 VA Commonwealth 0.74833 At-Large
47 Kansas St 0.74584 At-Large
48 South Carolina 0.74427 Bubble
49 Oregon St 0.74418 Bubble
50 Florida St 0.73667 Bubble
51 Washington 0.72883 Bubble
52 Georgia Tech 0.72701 Bubble
53 Creighton 0.72364 Bubble
54 Clemson 0.72104 Bubble
55 Virginia Tech 0.72080 Bubble
56 San Diego St 0.71545 Bubble
57 Hawaii 0.70874 Big West
58 Georgia 0.70605 Bubble
59 UCLA 0.70478 Bubble
60 Tulsa 0.70322 Bubble
61 G Washington 0.70300 Bubble
62 Ohio St 0.70047 Bubble
63 Northwestern 0.69910 Bubble
64 Houston 0.69744 Bubble
65 Valparaiso 0.69499 Bubble
66 Stanford 0.69193 Bubble
67 Marquette 0.68432 Bubble
68 Georgetown 0.68291 Bubble
69 St Bonaventure 0.67854
70 NC State 0.67596
71 BYU 0.67456
72 Ark Little Rock 0.67274 Sun Belt
73 LSU 0.67230
74 Arizona St 0.67029
75 Alabama 0.66918
76 Temple 0.66888
77 Mississippi 0.66619
78 Arkansas 0.66363
79 Memphis 0.66219
80 Yale 0.65580 Ivy League
81 Northern Iowa 0.64889 Missouri Valley
82 Evansville 0.64878
83 Nebraska 0.64775
84 SF Austin 0.64294 Southland
85 Oklahoma St 0.64075
86 Mississippi St 0.63636
87 Tennessee 0.63351
88 Rhode Island 0.63303
89 Monmouth NJ 0.63264
90 Davidson 0.63235
91 UNC Wilmington 0.63015 Colonial
92 Princeton 0.62794
93 Richmond 0.62521
94 S Dakota St 0.62219 Summit
95 UAB 0.62200
96 Fresno St 0.62130 Mountain West
97 Chattanooga 0.61797 Southern
98 William & Mary 0.61761
99 Boise St 0.61421
100 Wake Forest 0.60905
101 James Madison 0.60841
102 UC Irvine 0.60617
103 Hofstra 0.60553
104 Akron 0.60308
105 Long Beach St 0.59842
106 Illinois 0.59728
107 Penn St 0.59625
108 TCU 0.59255
109 Stony Brook 0.59096 America East
110 UNLV 0.57992
111 New Mexico 0.57939
112 UT Arlington 0.57935
113 Santa Barbara 0.57903
114 Oakland 0.57670
115 Grand Canyon 0.57233
116 Ohio 0.57168
117 Iona 0.56830 Metro Atlantic
118 Illinois St 0.56454
119 S Illinois 0.55961
120 MTSU 0.55801 Conference USA
121 New Mexico St 0.55356
122 Nevada 0.55026
123 CS Bakersfield 0.54758 Western
124 Missouri 0.54436
125 Col Charleston 0.54355
126 Fordham 0.54220
127 Pepperdine 0.54168
128 Duquesne 0.54059
129 IPFW 0.53936
130 Old Dominion 0.53887
131 Northeastern 0.53633
132 WI Green Bay 0.53521 Horizon
133 W Kentucky 0.53220
134 Utah St 0.53044
135 Buffalo 0.53012 Mid-American
136 Columbia 0.52848
137 WI Milwaukee 0.52520
138 Colorado St 0.52504
139 Siena 0.52426
140 Belmont 0.52379
141 Auburn 0.52043
142 Massachusetts 0.51841
143 Morehead St 0.51696
144 DePaul 0.51456
145 Louisiana Tech 0.51384
146 Towson 0.51360
147 UNC Asheville 0.51271 Big South
148 ULM 0.51202
149 Wright St 0.51118
150 Toledo 0.51115
151 ETSU 0.50974
152 Kent 0.50936
153 Weber St 0.50885 Big Sky
154 N Illinois 0.50832
155 E Michigan 0.50618
156 Ball St 0.50417
157 N Dakota St 0.50125
158 ULL 0.50021
159 NE Omaha 0.49988
160 TAM C. Christi 0.49987
161 Washington St 0.49904
162 Albany NY 0.49896
163 Indiana St 0.49216
164 C Michigan 0.49068
165 Minnesota 0.49020
166 Wyoming 0.48705
167 Marshall 0.48696
168 Elon 0.48620
169 High Point 0.48512
170 UCF 0.48173
171 Winthrop 0.47833
172 East Carolina 0.47235
173 Montana 0.46978
174 Oral Roberts 0.46862
175 Loyola-Chicago 0.46799
176 George Mason 0.46771
177 Vermont 0.46399
178 Tennessee St 0.46255
179 North Florida 0.46029
180 Mercer 0.45832
181 FL Gulf Coast 0.45832 Atlantic Sun
182 Detroit 0.45822
183 Murray St 0.45757
184 Tulane 0.45522
185 Coastal Car 0.45488
186 Tennessee Tech 0.45288
187 Georgia St 0.45235
188 St John’s 0.45041
189 W Michigan 0.44824
190 Denver 0.44543
191 St Louis 0.44462
192 Fairfield 0.44347
193 Missouri St 0.43886
194 Harvard 0.43826
195 Furman 0.43470
196 Bucknell 0.43204
197 San Francisco 0.42658
198 Portland 0.42286
199 Boston College 0.42247
200 South Florida 0.41564
201 South Dakota 0.41525
202 Loy Marymount 0.41473
203 Wagner 0.41443
204 Air Force 0.41392
205 Idaho 0.41377
206 Wofford 0.41260
207 W Carolina 0.41182
208 TN Martin 0.40965
209 IUPUI 0.40944
210 Miami OH 0.40899
211 UTEP 0.40818
212 Bowling Green 0.40742
213 NJIT 0.40294
214 E Kentucky 0.40215
215 Charlotte 0.39986
216 La Salle 0.39950
217 Cal Poly SLO 0.39824
218 Radford 0.39767
219 North Dakota 0.39414
220 Lehigh 0.39265
221 Navy 0.38843
222 St Peter’s 0.38705
223 Ga Southern 0.38550
224 Austin Peay 0.38510 Ohio Valley
225 Texas St 0.38399
226 Santa Clara 0.38387
227 Gardner Webb 0.37967
228 Canisius 0.37836
229 E Washington 0.37817
230 TX Southern 0.37800
231 Rutgers 0.37120
232 Rider 0.37094
233 W Illinois 0.37051
234 Army 0.37013
235 UNC Greensboro 0.36877
236 Pacific 0.36780
237 Drexel 0.36711
238 Hampton 0.36657 Mid-Eastern
239 Samford 0.36648
240 Boston Univ 0.36436
241 UC Davis 0.36277
242 UC Riverside 0.36218
243 Sam Houston St 0.36141
244 San Jose St 0.35994
245 South Alabama 0.35519
246 Manhattan 0.35157
247 Florida Intl 0.34966
248 Southern Univ 0.34744 Southwestern
249 Montana St 0.34712
250 Penn 0.34658
251 New Hampshire 0.34644
252 CS Northridge 0.34493
253 Drake 0.34190
254 Norfolk St 0.34029
255 Arkansas St 0.33957
256 CS Fullerton 0.33883
257 Missouri KC 0.33834
258 Incarnate Word 0.33800
259 Dartmouth 0.33719
260 Appalachian St 0.33414
261 Delaware 0.33277
262 E Illinois 0.33221
263 CS Sacramento 0.32718
264 F Dickinson 0.32501 Northeast
265 Kennesaw 0.32348
266 Portland St 0.32310
267 Colgate 0.32059
268 N Kentucky 0.31918
269 San Diego 0.31905
270 Idaho St 0.31749
271 S Carolina St 0.31511
272 North Texas 0.31158
273 Jacksonville 0.31097
274 Cornell 0.30941
275 Seattle 0.30921
276 Rice 0.30822
277 Cleveland St 0.30784
278 Youngstown St 0.30729
279 Jackson St 0.30680
280 Houston Bap 0.30679
281 Lipscomb 0.30664
282 Troy 0.30256
283 Liberty 0.29580
284 Utah Valley 0.28672
285 Holy Cross 0.28511 Patriot
286 Brown 0.28419
287 Mt St Mary’s 0.27719
288 Quinnipiac 0.27376
289 Campbell 0.27311
290 Loyola MD 0.27212
291 St Francis NY 0.27113
292 Charleston So 0.26998
293 Stetson 0.26984
294 Long Island 0.26953
295 FL Atlantic 0.26755
296 Southern Miss 0.26358
297 N Colorado 0.25932
298 Longwood 0.25558
299 Edwardsville 0.25344
300 Bradley 0.25038
301 VMI 0.24992
302 St Francis PA 0.24925
303 Marist 0.24924
304 Niagara 0.24324
305 MA Lowell 0.23987
306 Citadel 0.23920
307 American Univ 0.23803
308 Presbyterian 0.23697
309 SC Upstate 0.23362
310 Sacred Heart 0.22925
311 Savannah St 0.22592
312 Alabama St 0.22561
313 Jacksonville St 0.22317
314 Robert Morris 0.22047
315 Bethune-Cookman 0.22033
316 NC Central 0.21063
317 Hartford 0.20907
318 Morgan St 0.20819
319 Howard 0.20592
320 Abilene Chr 0.20522
321 Alcorn St 0.20263
322 Lafayette 0.19665
323 Binghamton 0.19554
324 Alabama A&M 0.19338
325 IL Chicago 0.19199
326 MD E Shore 0.18864
327 New Orleans 0.18425
328 SE Louisiana 0.18298
329 UMBC 0.18277
330 Maine 0.17858
331 Lamar 0.17372
332 Coppin St 0.17023
333 NC A&T 0.16819
334 UT San Antonio 0.15598
335 McNeese St 0.15496
336 Cent Arkansas 0.15405
337 Nicholls St 0.15230
338 Northwestern LA 0.14752
339 Southern Utah 0.14014
340 UTRGV 0.13714
341 Bryant 0.13227
342 Northern Arizona 0.12901
343 Prairie View 0.12149
344 SE Missouri St 0.11114
345 MS Valley St 0.10504
346 Ark Pine Bluff 0.10322
347 Florida A&M 0.06839
348 Delaware St 0.06720
349 Grambling 0.05753
350 Chicago St 0.05225
351 Central Conn 0.05118
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