Only five games remain for the conference tournaments. As we are under 24 hours from the selection committee’s announcements, we have a couple remaining games to resolve. Recently, Buffalo knocked off Akron to capture the Mid-American conference championship; Cal. State Bakersfield wrestled away the Western Athletic conference from New Mexico State; and San Diego State lost to Fresno State for the Mountain West conference bid. In each case, the loser of each tournament have effectively fallen out of the NCAA Tournament and into the NIT (or lower tournament). Tomorrow, with only five games remaining, the same scenario may unfold as Memphis plays against Connecticut in the American Athletic conference and Louisiana Monroe challenges Arkansas Little Rock in the Sun Belt championship.

Conferences are broken down as follows: Conference Name (with number of teams expected to make the NCAA Tournament), Tournament Champion (automatic bid into NCAA Tournament), Still Alive (Not eliminated from conference tournament as of this morning), Predicted Winner (of the conference tournament), At-Large (currently sitting as an at-large if they are not in (or predicted to win) the conference tournament), Bubble Team (If they are within the top 15 teams after the at-larges are determined).

We note that an “At-Large” team is a team that is not projected to be a conference winner; is not a conference winner; and is in the Top 36 remaining spots. This is in no way indicative of saying that these teams are safe. The “Bubble” teams are teams that are within the Top 68 and have not been proposed an “At-Large” bid or won a conference championship.

1. America East (1)

Tournament Champion: Stony Brook

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

2. American (2)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Connecticut, Memphis

Predicted Winner: Connecticut

At-Large: Cincinnati

Bubble Team: Tulsa, Houston

 

3. Atlantic 10 (3)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: VCU, Saint Joe’s

Predicted Winner: Saint Joe’s

At-Large: Dayton, VCU

Bubble Team: George Washington

 

4. Atlantic Coast (7)

Tournament Champion: North Carolina

At-Large: Virginia, Miami, Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Bubble Team: Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech

 

5. Atlantic Sun (1)

Tournament Champion: Florida Gulf Coast

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

6. Big 12 (8)

Tournament Champion: Kansas

At-Large: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas State

Bubble Team: None

 

7. Big East (5)

Tournament Champion: Seton Hall

At-Large: Xavier, Villanova, Butler, Providence

Bubble Team: Marquette, Creighton, Georgetown

 

8. Big Sky (1)

Tournament Champion: Weber State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

9. Big South (1)

Tournament Champion: UNC – Asheville

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

10. Big Ten (7)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Michigan State, Purdue

Predicted Winner: Michigan State

At-Large: Maryland, Purdue, Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan

Bubble Team: Northwestern, Ohio State

 

11. Big West (1)

Tournament Champion: Hawaii

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

12. Colonial Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: NC – Wilmington

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

13. Conference USA (1)

Tournament Champion: Middle Tennessee State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

14. Horizon League (1)

Tournament Champion: UW – Green Bay

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: Valparaiso

 

15. Ivy League (1)

Tournament Champion: Yale (No Tournament, Regular Season Champion)

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

16. Metro Atlantic Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: Iona

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

17. Mid-American (1)

Tournament Champion: Buffalo

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

18. Mid-Eastern Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: Hampton

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

19. Missouri Valley (2)

Tournament Champion: Northern Iowa

At-Large: Wichita State

Bubble Team: None

 

20. Mountain West (1)

Tournament Champion: Fresno State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: San Diego State

 

21. Northeast (1)

Tournament Champion: Farleigh Dickinson

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

22. Ohio Valley (1)

Tournament Champion: Austin Peay

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

23. Pacific 12 (6)

Tournament Champion: Oregon

At-Large: Utah, Arizona, California, Colorado, USC

Bubble Team: Stanford, Washington, UCLA, Oregon State

 

24. Patriot League (1)

Tournament Champion: Holy Cross

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

25. Southeastern (4)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Texas A&M, Kentucky

Predicted Winner: Kentucky

At-Large: Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Florida

Bubble Team: Georgia, South Carolina

 

26. Southern (1)

Tournament Champion: Chattanooga

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

27. Southland (1)

Tournament Champion: Stephen F. Austin

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

28. Southwestern Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: Southern

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

29. Summit League (1)

Tournament Champion: South Dakota State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

30. Sun Belt (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Little Rock, UL Monroe

Predicted Winner: Arkansas Little Rock

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

31. West Coast (2)

Tournament Champion: Gonzaga

At-Large: St. Mary’s

Bubble Team: None

 

32. Western Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: CS Bakersfield

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

Current State of NCAA Tournament

Using our rankings system, we place the 68 teams into the tournament bracket as follows:

 

Current Rankings (Jacobs’ Model)

The overall rankings according to our current model shows the scores for each of the 351 NCAA Division I teams.

Rank	Team	Score	MM Position
1	Kansas	0.99638	Big 12
2	Villanova	0.96134	At-Large
3	Michigan St	0.94892	Big Ten
4	Virginia	0.93790	At-Large
5	West Virginia	0.93289	At-Large
6	North Carolina	0.92545	ACC
7	Oklahoma	0.91914	At-Large
8	Xavier	0.89910	At-Large
9	Louisville	0.88782	DQ: Self-Imposed
10	Purdue	0.88601	At-Large
11	Miami FL	0.88407	At-Large
12	Oregon	0.87905	Pac 12
13	SMU	0.86987	DQ: Violations
14	Arizona	0.85918	At-Large
15	Kentucky	0.85847	SEC
16	Texas A&M	0.85716	At-Large
17	Indiana	0.85006	At-Large
18	Duke	0.84832	At-Large
19	Utah	0.84306	At-Large
20	Baylor	0.84195	At-Large
21	Iowa St	0.83991	At-Large
22	Maryland	0.83438	At-Large
23	Iowa	0.83414	At-Large
24	Seton Hall	0.83001	Big East
25	Texas	0.82361	At-Large
26	California	0.81964	At-Large
27	Butler	0.79817	At-Large
28	Vanderbilt	0.79098	At-Large
29	Connecticut	0.78835	American
30	Pittsburgh	0.78358	At-Large
31	Wichita St	0.77900	At-Large
32	Notre Dame	0.77874	At-Large
33	Michigan	0.77815	At-Large
34	Texas Tech	0.77743	At-Large
35	Cincinnati	0.77356	At-Large
36	Gonzaga	0.77125	West Coast
37	USC	0.76864	At-Large
38	Dayton	0.76790	At-Large
39	St Mary’s CA	0.76613	At-Large
40	Wisconsin	0.76265	At-Large
41	Florida	0.75898	At-Large
42	Colorado	0.75884	At-Large
43	Syracuse	0.75730	At-Large
44	Providence	0.75544	At-Large
45	St Joseph’s PA	0.75077	Atlantic 10
46	VA Commonwealth	0.74833	At-Large
47	Kansas St	0.74584	At-Large
48	South Carolina	0.74427	Bubble
49	Oregon St	0.74418	Bubble
50	Florida St	0.73667	Bubble
51	Washington	0.72883	Bubble
52	Georgia Tech	0.72701	Bubble
53	Creighton	0.72364	Bubble
54	Clemson	0.72104	Bubble
55	Virginia Tech	0.72080	Bubble
56	San Diego St	0.71545	Bubble
57	Hawaii	0.70874	Big West
58	Georgia	0.70605	Bubble
59	UCLA	0.70478	Bubble
60	Tulsa	0.70322	Bubble
61	G Washington	0.70300	Bubble
62	Ohio St	0.70047	Bubble
63	Northwestern	0.69910	Bubble
64	Houston	0.69744	Bubble
65	Valparaiso	0.69499	Bubble
66	Stanford	0.69193	Bubble
67	Marquette	0.68432	Bubble
68	Georgetown	0.68291	Bubble
69	St Bonaventure	0.67854
70	NC State	0.67596
71	BYU	0.67456
72	Ark Little Rock	0.67274	Sun Belt
73	LSU	0.67230
74	Arizona St	0.67029
75	Alabama	0.66918
76	Temple	0.66888
77	Mississippi	0.66619
78	Arkansas	0.66363
79	Memphis	0.66219
80	Yale	0.65580	Ivy League
81	Northern Iowa	0.64889	Missouri Valley
82	Evansville	0.64878
83	Nebraska	0.64775
84	SF Austin	0.64294	Southland
85	Oklahoma St	0.64075
86	Mississippi St	0.63636
87	Tennessee	0.63351
88	Rhode Island	0.63303
89	Monmouth NJ	0.63264
90	Davidson	0.63235
91	UNC Wilmington	0.63015	Colonial
92	Princeton	0.62794
93	Richmond	0.62521
94	S Dakota St	0.62219	Summit
95	UAB	0.62200
96	Fresno St	0.62130	Mountain West
97	Chattanooga	0.61797	Southern
98	William & Mary	0.61761
99	Boise St	0.61421
100	Wake Forest	0.60905
101	James Madison	0.60841
102	UC Irvine	0.60617
103	Hofstra	0.60553
104	Akron	0.60308
105	Long Beach St	0.59842
106	Illinois	0.59728
107	Penn St	0.59625
108	TCU	0.59255
109	Stony Brook	0.59096	America East
110	UNLV	0.57992
111	New Mexico	0.57939
112	UT Arlington	0.57935
113	Santa Barbara	0.57903
114	Oakland	0.57670
115	Grand Canyon	0.57233
116	Ohio	0.57168
117	Iona	0.56830	Metro Atlantic
118	Illinois St	0.56454
119	S Illinois	0.55961
120	MTSU	0.55801	Conference USA
121	New Mexico St	0.55356
122	Nevada	0.55026
123	CS Bakersfield	0.54758	Western
124	Missouri	0.54436
125	Col Charleston	0.54355
126	Fordham	0.54220
127	Pepperdine	0.54168
128	Duquesne	0.54059
129	IPFW	0.53936
130	Old Dominion	0.53887
131	Northeastern	0.53633
132	WI Green Bay	0.53521	Horizon
133	W Kentucky	0.53220
134	Utah St	0.53044
135	Buffalo	0.53012	Mid-American
136	Columbia	0.52848
137	WI Milwaukee	0.52520
138	Colorado St	0.52504
139	Siena	0.52426
140	Belmont	0.52379
141	Auburn	0.52043
142	Massachusetts	0.51841
143	Morehead St	0.51696
144	DePaul	0.51456
145	Louisiana Tech	0.51384
146	Towson	0.51360
147	UNC Asheville	0.51271	Big South
148	ULM	0.51202
149	Wright St	0.51118
150	Toledo	0.51115
151	ETSU	0.50974
152	Kent	0.50936
153	Weber St	0.50885	Big Sky
154	N Illinois	0.50832
155	E Michigan	0.50618
156	Ball St	0.50417
157	N Dakota St	0.50125
158	ULL	0.50021
159	NE Omaha	0.49988
160	TAM C. Christi	0.49987
161	Washington St	0.49904
162	Albany NY	0.49896
163	Indiana St	0.49216
164	C Michigan	0.49068
165	Minnesota	0.49020
166	Wyoming	0.48705
167	Marshall	0.48696
168	Elon	0.48620
169	High Point	0.48512
170	UCF	0.48173
171	Winthrop	0.47833
172	East Carolina	0.47235
173	Montana	0.46978
174	Oral Roberts	0.46862
175	Loyola-Chicago	0.46799
176	George Mason	0.46771
177	Vermont	0.46399
178	Tennessee St	0.46255
179	North Florida	0.46029
180	Mercer	0.45832
181	FL Gulf Coast	0.45832	Atlantic Sun
182	Detroit	0.45822
183	Murray St	0.45757
184	Tulane	0.45522
185	Coastal Car	0.45488
186	Tennessee Tech	0.45288
187	Georgia St	0.45235
188	St John’s	0.45041
189	W Michigan	0.44824
190	Denver	0.44543
191	St Louis	0.44462
192	Fairfield	0.44347
193	Missouri St	0.43886
194	Harvard	0.43826
195	Furman	0.43470
196	Bucknell	0.43204
197	San Francisco	0.42658
198	Portland	0.42286
199	Boston College	0.42247
200	South Florida	0.41564
201	South Dakota	0.41525
202	Loy Marymount	0.41473
203	Wagner	0.41443
204	Air Force	0.41392
205	Idaho	0.41377
206	Wofford	0.41260
207	W Carolina	0.41182
208	TN Martin	0.40965
209	IUPUI	0.40944
210	Miami OH	0.40899
211	UTEP	0.40818
212	Bowling Green	0.40742
213	NJIT	0.40294
214	E Kentucky	0.40215
215	Charlotte	0.39986
216	La Salle	0.39950
217	Cal Poly SLO	0.39824
218	Radford	0.39767
219	North Dakota	0.39414
220	Lehigh	0.39265
221	Navy	0.38843
222	St Peter’s	0.38705
223	Ga Southern	0.38550
224	Austin Peay	0.38510	Ohio Valley
225	Texas St	0.38399
226	Santa Clara	0.38387
227	Gardner Webb	0.37967
228	Canisius	0.37836
229	E Washington	0.37817
230	TX Southern	0.37800
231	Rutgers	0.37120
232	Rider	0.37094
233	W Illinois	0.37051
234	Army	0.37013
235	UNC Greensboro	0.36877
236	Pacific	0.36780
237	Drexel	0.36711
238	Hampton	0.36657	Mid-Eastern
239	Samford	0.36648
240	Boston Univ	0.36436
241	UC Davis	0.36277
242	UC Riverside	0.36218
243	Sam Houston St	0.36141
244	San Jose St	0.35994
245	South Alabama	0.35519
246	Manhattan	0.35157
247	Florida Intl	0.34966
248	Southern Univ	0.34744	Southwestern
249	Montana St	0.34712
250	Penn	0.34658
251	New Hampshire	0.34644
252	CS Northridge	0.34493
253	Drake	0.34190
254	Norfolk St	0.34029
255	Arkansas St	0.33957
256	CS Fullerton	0.33883
257	Missouri KC	0.33834
258	Incarnate Word	0.33800
259	Dartmouth	0.33719
260	Appalachian St	0.33414
261	Delaware	0.33277
262	E Illinois	0.33221
263	CS Sacramento	0.32718
264	F Dickinson	0.32501	Northeast
265	Kennesaw	0.32348
266	Portland St	0.32310
267	Colgate	0.32059
268	N Kentucky	0.31918
269	San Diego	0.31905
270	Idaho St	0.31749
271	S Carolina St	0.31511
272	North Texas	0.31158
273	Jacksonville	0.31097
274	Cornell	0.30941
275	Seattle	0.30921
276	Rice	0.30822
277	Cleveland St	0.30784
278	Youngstown St	0.30729
279	Jackson St	0.30680
280	Houston Bap	0.30679
281	Lipscomb	0.30664
282	Troy	0.30256
283	Liberty	0.29580
284	Utah Valley	0.28672
285	Holy Cross	0.28511	Patriot
286	Brown	0.28419
287	Mt St Mary’s	0.27719
288	Quinnipiac	0.27376
289	Campbell	0.27311
290	Loyola MD	0.27212
291	St Francis NY	0.27113
292	Charleston So	0.26998
293	Stetson	0.26984
294	Long Island	0.26953
295	FL Atlantic	0.26755
296	Southern Miss	0.26358
297	N Colorado	0.25932
298	Longwood	0.25558
299	Edwardsville	0.25344
300	Bradley	0.25038
301	VMI	0.24992
302	St Francis PA	0.24925
303	Marist	0.24924
304	Niagara	0.24324
305	MA Lowell	0.23987
306	Citadel	0.23920
307	American Univ	0.23803
308	Presbyterian	0.23697
309	SC Upstate	0.23362
310	Sacred Heart	0.22925
311	Savannah St	0.22592
312	Alabama St	0.22561
313	Jacksonville St	0.22317
314	Robert Morris	0.22047
315	Bethune-Cookman	0.22033
316	NC Central	0.21063
317	Hartford	0.20907
318	Morgan St	0.20819
319	Howard	0.20592
320	Abilene Chr	0.20522
321	Alcorn St	0.20263
322	Lafayette	0.19665
323	Binghamton	0.19554
324	Alabama A&M	0.19338
325	IL Chicago	0.19199
326	MD E Shore	0.18864
327	New Orleans	0.18425
328	SE Louisiana	0.18298
329	UMBC	0.18277
330	Maine	0.17858
331	Lamar	0.17372
332	Coppin St	0.17023
333	NC A&T	0.16819
334	UT San Antonio	0.15598
335	McNeese St	0.15496
336	Cent Arkansas	0.15405
337	Nicholls St	0.15230
338	Northwestern LA	0.14752
339	Southern Utah	0.14014
340	UTRGV	0.13714
341	Bryant	0.13227
342	Northern Arizona	0.12901
343	Prairie View	0.12149
344	SE Missouri St	0.11114
345	MS Valley St	0.10504
346	Ark Pine Bluff	0.10322
347	Florida A&M	0.06839
348	Delaware St	0.06720
349	Grambling	0.05753
350	Chicago St	0.05225
351	Central Conn	0.05118