So far this season, the NBA has played 38 total games of the season’s 1,230 possible games. For these 38 games, we observe a total of 76 game scores across all teams. The observed 76 scores yielded some high results: 139, 136, 134, 132, 122, and 120; as well as some low results: 85, 78,…
Recently, the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs played to a frenetic 112 – 106 OKC win on October 28th. It was one heck of a statement to open the year for the NBA as the Thunder returned to the court as a complete, healthy unit; the first time since February of last…
With the 2015-16 NBA season getting underway tonight, we take a look at previous year data and attempt to extrapolate an expected number of wins for each team this season. The method we propose is conservative in that we rely on previous season possession data and opening day rosters for each NBA team. First, we…
As the Seattle Seahawks (3-4) wrap up a 20-3 victory over the San Francisco 49ers (2-5), we note that both teams are still below .500 with slightly over half a season left of play. While the Seahawks have proven they can run the table, the question is whether they are still a feared team. On a…
With the 2015-16 NBA regular season slated to open on October 27th, just a mere ten days away, we figured to take a look at possession data from seasons past. An NBA possession is effectively the time that an offense gains possession of the basketball until the time the ceases to maintain possesion. There are…
Now that we took a look at the probability of making the World Series for each MLB playoff team, let’s take a look at the optimal path for navigating the playoffs. For this post, we will still assume the continuity correction model from the previous posts for making the playoffs and making the world series. One…
As the MLB playoffs began last night with the Houston Astros completing a three hit shutout over the New York Yankees, we decided to work out a generic method for determining the probability for each team in the MLB playoffs to make the world series. The playoffs finalized with the following schedule: A.L. Wild Card…
Since our last post, identifying the ways each of the remaining 10 A.L. teams vying for the final wildcard spot could win that said wildcard spot; a mere five days ago, we have seen seven teams fade off into obscurity and a tightening three horse race. Given our probabilities for each team, this scenario was widely accepted as…
Three weeks ago, the Houston Astros (73-60) sat relatively comfortably atop the American League West with a three game lead over the Texas Rangers (69-62) and a 6.5 game lead over the Los Angeles Angels (66-66). Over the course of three weeks, the Rangers wrangled the division lead in a convincing series over the Astros.…
As the season comes to a conclusion, we will continue to produce probabilities for each MLB making the playoffs. With 10-12 games remaining for each team, the need for urgency arises and teams outside the playoff picture need to start posting near perfect records (Rockies of 2007); or teams inside the playoff picture need to…
Squared Statistics: Understanding Basketball Analytics 