March Madness Conference Watch: March 6th Edition

As the regular season comes to a close today with Big Ten action, we start to turn our focus to the conference tournaments. In this edition, we take a look at all 32 conferences and identify the current state of the NCAA tournaments, as defined by our ranking algorithms.

Conferences are broken down as follows: Conference Name (with number of teams expected to make the NCAA Tournament), Tournament Champion (automatic bid into NCAA Tournament), Still Alive (Not eliminated from conference tournament as of this morning), Predicted Winner (of the conference tournament), At-Large (currently sitting as an at-large if they are not in (or predicted to win) the conference tournament), Bubble Team (If they are within the top 15 teams after the at-larges are determined).

 

1. America East (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Stony Brook, New Hampshire, Vermont, Hartford

Predicted Winner: Stony Brook

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

2. American (2)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Starts March 10

Predicted Winner: Connecticut

At-Large: Cincinnati

Bubble Team: Tulsa, Houston, Temple

 

3. Atlantic 10 (3)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Starts March 9

Predicted Winner: Dayton

At-Large: St. Joseph’s, St. Bonaventure

Bubble Team: VCU, George Washington

 

4. Atlantic Coast (9)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Starts March 8

Predicted Winner: Virginia

At-Large: North Carolina, Miami, Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Florida State, Virginia Tech

Bubble Team: Georgia Tech

 

5. Atlantic Sun (1)

Tournament Champion: Florida Gulf Coast

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

6. Big 12 (7)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Starts March 9

Predicted Winner: Kansas

At-Large: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech

Bubble Team: Kansas State

 

7. Big East (5)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Starts March 9

Predicted Winner: Villanova

At-Large: Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Providence

Bubble Team: Marquette, Creighton

 

8. Big Sky (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Starts March 8

Predicted Winner: Weber State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

9. Big South (1)

Tournament Champion: UNC – Asheville

 

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

10. Big Ten (7)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Starts March 9

Predicted Winner: Michigan State

At-Large: Maryland, Purdue, Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan

Bubble Team: None

 

11. Big West (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Starts March 10

Predicted Winner: Hawaii

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

12. Colonial Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Hofstra, UNC – Wilmington

Predicted Winner: Hofstra

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

13. Conference USA (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Starts March 8

Predicted Winner: UAB

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

14. Horizon League (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: UW – Green Bay, Wright State, Oakland, Valparaiso

Predicted Winner: Valparaiso

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

15. Ivy League (1)

Tournament Champion: YALE (No Tournament, Regular Season Champion)

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

16. Metro Atlantic Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Monmouth, Iona

Predicted Winner: Monmouth

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

17. Mid-American (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Starts March 7

Predicted Winner: Akron

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

18. Mid-Eastern Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Starts March 7

Predicted Winner: Hampton

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

19. Missouri Valley (1)

Tournament Champion: Northern Iowa

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: Wichita State

 

20. Mountain West (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Starts March 9

Predicted Winner: San Diego State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

21. Northeast (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Wagner, Farleigh Dickinson

Predicted Winner: Wagner

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

22. Ohio Valley (1)

Tournament Champion: Austin Peay

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

23. Pacific 12 (7)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Starts March 9

Predicted Winner: Oregon

At-Large: Utah, Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon State, USC

Bubble Team: Stanford, Washington

 

24. Patriot League (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Holy Cross, Lehigh

Predicted Winner: Lehigh

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

25. Southeastern (4)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Starts March 9

Predicted Winner: Texas A&M

At-Large: Kentucky, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Bubble Team: None

 

26. Southern (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Chattanooga, East Tennessee State

Predicted Winner: Chattanooga

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

27. Southland (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Starts March 8

Predicted Winner: Stephen F. Austin

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

28. Southwestern Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Starts March 8

Predicted Winner: Texas Southern

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

29. Summit League (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: IPFW, N Dakota St, Nebraska – Omaha, Denver, South Dakota State

Predicted Winner: South Dakota State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

30. Sun Belt (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Starts March 10

Predicted Winner: Arkansas Little Rock

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

31. West Coast (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: BYU, Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, Pepperdine

Predicted Winner: St. Mary’s

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: Gonzaga

 

32. Western Athletic (1)

Tournament Champion: None

Still Alive in Conference: Starts March 10

Predicted Winner: New Mexico State

At-Large: None

Bubble Team: None

 

Overall Conference Rankings

Based on our rankings method, we are able to identify the strength of each conference as a whole. Comparing the conference strengths to our current state of the NCAA Tournament bids, we find that the two methods are relatively consistent.

Conference Rank Score Projected Bids % Conference
Big 12 0.81193 7 70.0000
Pac 12 0.75855 7 58.3333
Atlantic Coast 0.75523 9 60.0000
Big East 0.75034 5 50.0000
Big Ten 0.70814 7 50.0000
Southeastern 0.68786 4 28.5714
Atlantic 10 0.66803 3 21.2486
American 0.63066 2 18.1818
Mountain West 0.54912 1 9.0909
Colonial Athletic 0.53768 1 10.0000
Missouri Valley 0.52136 1 10.0000
Mid-American 0.51706 1 8.3333
West Coast 0.49959 1 10.0000
Summit League 0.49700 1 11.1111
Big West 0.49451 1 12.5000
Horizon League 0.44954 1 10.0000
Sun Belt 0.43960 1 9.0909
Ivy League 0.43235 1 12.5000
Southern 0.43066 1 10.0000
Conference USA 0.41566 1 7.1429
Metro Atlantic Ath. 0.40982 1 9.0909
Ohio Valley 0.38935 1 8.3333
Big South 0.38580 1 9.0909
Atlantic Sun 0.35667 1 12.5000
Western Athletic 0.35288 1 11.1111
America East 0.34885 1 11.1111
Patriot League 0.34584 1 10.0000
Big Sky 0.34240 1 8.3333
Northeast 0.27121 1 10.0000
Southland 0.26788 1 7.6923
Mid-Eastern Ath. 0.23895 1 7.6923
Southwestern Ath. 0.22558 1 10.0000
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