March Madness Bracketology: March 2nd Edition

 

Creeping into March, the Atlantic Sun and Patriot League Conference Tournaments have kicked off. Meanwhile another set of 62 NCAA Division I Mean’s basketball games have taken place since Sunday. We witnessed #5 Xavier come fresh off a victory against top ranked #1 Villanova only to fall 81-90 to Seton Hall. #8 Iowa continued on its free-fall with losses to Ohio State and #12 Indiana.#15 Duke uncharacteristically lost a game to Pittsburgh.

We head into the final week of the regular season with a large slate of games to wrap up several conferences on Thursday; with the remainder of conference games wrapping up on Saturday.

March Madness Current Entrants:

Using the current games played, the locations of the games, and the disparity of scores, we are able to build out a current state of the 2016 March Madness Tournament.

Rules: In order to make the tournament, a team must win their conference tournament, win the Ivy League regular season, or become an “at-large” bid that is selected based on merit by an NCAA committee.

In this post, we give an updated rankings for all 351 NCAA Division I teams. But first, we identify the current teams on pace (projected by our models) for becoming conference champions and “at-large” bids.

It should be noted that our rankings will include the suspended Southern Methodist University, whereas the AP Top 25 Coaches’ Poll does not include the Mustangs. Also, in recent light of team discipline, Louisville has also been disqualified from the post-season.

Other Teams Disqualified: Abilene Christian, Grand Canyon, Incarnate Word, Mass – Lowell, Northern Kentucky, NJIT (Transition to Division 1); Alcorn State, Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Stetson (NCAA Violations: APR); Missouri, Pacific, Southern Mississippi (Self-Imposed)

Fitting our models, we find that there is a 0.5354 r-squared, indicating an “O.K. but no-where predictive” fit to the games played. Note that an r-squared value of 0.25 typically indicates coin flips. Using the rankings as determination for conference winners, we have the following teams with automatic bids:

  1. America East: Stony Brook (23-6, 14-2)
  2. American: Cincinnati (21-8, 11-5)
  3. Atlantic 10: St. Joseph’s (24-5, 13-3)
  4. Atlantic Coast: Virginia (23-6, 12-5)
  5. Atlantic Sun: North Florida (21-10, 10-4)
  6. Big 12: Kansas (26-4, 14-3)
  7. Big East: Villanova (26-4, 15-2)
  8. Big Sky: Weber State (22-7, 14-2)
  9. Big South: Winthrop (21-8, 13-5)
  10. Big Ten: Michigan State (24-5, 11-5)
  11. Big West: Hawaii (23-4, 12-2)
  12. Colonial Athletic: Hofstra (22-8, 14-4)
  13. Conference USA: UAB (24-5, 14-2)
  14. Horizon League: Valparaiso (26-5, 16-2)
  15. Ivy League: Princeton (20-5, 10-1)
  16. Metro Atlantic: Monmouth (25-6, 17-3)
  17. Mid-American: Akron (23-7, 12-5)
  18. Mid-Eastern: Hampton (18-9, 13-2)
  19. Missouri Valley: Wichita State (23-7, 16-2)
  20. Mountain West: San Diego State (22-8, 15-2)
  21. Northeast: Wagner (20-9, 13-5)
  22. Ohio Valley: Belmont (20-10, 12-4)
  23. Pac-12: Oregon (23-6, 12-4)
  24. Patriot League: Bucknell (17-12, 14-4)
  25. Southeastern: Texas A&M (23-7, 12-5)
  26. Southern: Chattanooga (26-5, 15-3)
  27. Southland: Stephen F. Austin (23-5, 16-0)
  28. Southwestern Athletic: Texas Southern (16-12, 15-1)
  29. Summit League: South Dakota State (23-7, 12-4)
  30. Sun Belt: Arkansas Little Rock (27-3, 17-2)
  31. West Coast: St. Mary’s (25-4, 16-3)
  32. Western Athletic: New Mexico State (21-9, 12-1)

Dropped Out: Miami (FL) (23-5, 12-4), Utah (23-7, 12-5), Connecticut (20-8, 10-5)

Jumped In: Virginia, Oregon, Cincinnati

The remaining 36 “at-large” teams are then the top 36 teams in our rankings. These 36 teams are given as:

  1. Xavier (25-4, 13-4)
  2. Oklahoma (23-6, 11-6)
  3. Miami FL (23-5, 12-4)
  4. West Virginia (22-7, 11-5)
  5. North Carolina (24-6, 13-4)
  6. Utah (23-7, 12-5)
  7. Iowa State (21-9, 10-7)
  8. Baylor (21-9, 10-7)
  9. Maryland (23-6, 11-5)
  10. Duke (22-8, 11-6)
  11. Purdue (23-7, 11-6)
  12. Texas (19-11, 10-7)
  13. Indiana (24-6, 14-3)
  14. Seton Hall (21-7, 11-5)
  15. California (21-8, 11-5)
  16. Iowa (20-9, 11-6)
  17. Arizona (22-7, 10-6)
  18. Texas Tech (18-10, 8-8)
  19. Kentucky (22-8, 12-5)
  20. Pittsburgh (20-8, 9-7)
  21. Butler (19-9, 8-8)
  22. Colorado (21-9, 10-7)
  23. Dayton (23-6, 13-4)
  24. Notre Dame (20-9, 10-6)
  25. Wisconsin (19-10, 11-5)
  26. Oregon State (17-10, 8-8)
  27. South Carolina (23-6, 10-6)
  28. Providence (20-9, 8-8)
  29. Michigan (20-10, 10-7)
  30. Syracuse (19-11, 9-8)
  31. USC (19-10, 8-8)
  32. Stanford (15-12, 8-8)
  33. Vanderbilt (19-11, 11-6)
  34. Connecticut (20-9, 10-6)
  35. Marquette (19-11, 8-9)
  36. Florida State (17-12, 7-10)

DROPPED OUT:  Tulsa (19-10, 11-6)

SNEAKED IN: Marquette

The next set of teams are our current bubble teams. These are teams that are close to making the NCAA Tournament but are on the outside looking in.

  1. Creighton (18-11, 9-7)
  2. Kansas State (15-14, 4-12)
  3. George Washington (22-8, 11-6)
  4. Florida (17-13, 8-9)
  5. Washington (16-13, 8-9)
  6. Tulsa (19-10, 11-6)
  7. St. Bonaventure (20-7, 11-6)
  8. Gonzaga (23-7, 15-3)
  9. Georgia Tech (17-13, 7-10)
  10. Alabama (17-11, 8-8)

FLOATED OUT OF BUBBLE: NONE

CLIMBED INTO BUBBLE: NONE

The current state of the NCAA Tournament is given as follows:

MarchMadnessMarch2nd

NCAA March Madness seedings based on our rankings as of March 2nd, 2016.

We note that we are not predicting the field of 68, but rather giving seedings based on play up to today. Our goal is to populate the March Madness tournament with current seedings; to give indication of where teams are sitting as of today. As the final week of the conference games continue to play out, the field of 68 will become much clearer.

Rank Team Score Record MM Position
1 Villanova 0.99694 26-4 (15-2) Big East
2 Kansas 0.98264 26-4 (14-3) Big 12
3 Xavier 0.94546 25-4 (13-4) At Large
4 Oklahoma 0.93503 23-6 (11-6) At Large
5 Virginia 0.90413 23-6 (12-5) ACC
6 Miami FL 0.90394 23-5 (12-4) At Large
7 Michigan St 0.90225 24-5 (11-5) Big Ten
8 West Virginia 0.89204 22-7 (11-5) At Large
9 North Carolina 0.88200 24-6 (13-4) At Large
10 SMU 0.87320 24-4 (12-4) DQ: Violations
11 Oregon 0.87048 23-6 (12-4) Pac-12
12 Utah 0.86828 23-7 (12-5) At Large
13 Louisville 0.85924 23-7 (12-5) DQ: Self-Imposed
14 Iowa St 0.84906 21-9 (10-7) At Large
15 Baylor 0.84474 21-9 (10-7) At Large
16 Maryland 0.84285 23-6 (11-5) At Large
17 Duke 0.84253 22-8 (11-6) At Large
18 Purdue 0.84122 23-7 (11-6) At Large
19 Texas 0.83765 19-11 (10-7) At Large
20 Indiana 0.83625 24-6 (14-3) At Large
21 Seton Hall 0.83355 21-7 (11-5) At Large
22 California 0.82864 21-8 (11-5) At Large
23 Iowa 0.82759 20-9 (11-6) At Large
24 Arizona 0.82173 22-7 (10-6) At Large
25 Texas A&M 0.81856 23-7 (12-5) SEC
26 Texas Tech 0.81509 18-10 (8-8) At Large
27 Kentucky 0.80831 22-8 (12-5) At Large
28 Pittsburgh 0.80479 20-8 (9-7) At Large
29 Butler 0.79821 19-9 (8-8) At Large
30 St Joseph’s PA 0.79820 24-5 (13-3) Atlantic 10
31 Colorado 0.79599 21-9 (10-7) At Large
32 Dayton 0.79297 23-6 (13-4) At Large
33 Notre Dame 0.78768 19-9 (10-6) At Large
34 Wisconsin 0.78336 19-10 (11-5) At Large
35 Oregon St 0.78111 17-10 (8-8) At Large
36 South Carolina 0.77657 23-6 (10-6) At Large
37 Providence 0.77243 20-9 (8-8) At Large
38 Michigan 0.77107 20-10 (10-7) At Large
39 Syracuse 0.76963 19-11 (9-8) At Large
40 USC 0.76350 19-10 (8-8) At Large
41 Cincinnati 0.75879 21-8 (11-5) American
42 Stanford 0.75733 15-12 (8-8) At Large
43 Vanderbilt 0.75635 19-11 (11-6) At Large
44 St Mary’s CA 0.75484 25-4 (15-3) West Coast
45 Connecticut 0.75329 20-9 (10-6) At Large
46 Wichita St 0.74801 23-7 (16-2) Missouri Valley
47 Marquette 0.73756 19-11 (8-9) At Large
48 Florida St 0.73520 17-12 (7-10) At Large
49 Hawaii 0.73438 23-4 (12-2) Big West
50 Creighton 0.73422 18-11 (9-7)
51 Kansas St 0.73200 15-14 (4-12)
52 Ark Little Rock 0.73155 27-3 (17-2) Sun Belt
53 G Washington 0.73050 22-8 (11-6)
54 Florida 0.72983 17-13 (8-9)
55 Washington 0.72531 16-13 (8-9)
56 Tulsa 0.72509 19-10 (11-6)
57 St Bonaventure 0.72157 20-7 (11-6)
58 Gonzaga 0.72146 23-7 (15-3)
59 Georgia Tech 0.72135 17-13 (7-10)
60 Alabama 0.71760 17-11 (8-8)
61 VA Commonwealth 0.71661 21-8 (13-3)
62 San Diego St 0.71248 22-8 (15-2) Mountain West
63 UCLA 0.70859 15-14 (6-10)
64 Valparaiso 0.70708 26-5 (16-2) Horizon League
65 Temple 0.70658 18-10 (12-4)
66 Virginia Tech 0.70550 16-13 (8-8)
67 Houston 0.70368 21-8 (11-6)
68 Ohio St 0.70229 19-11 (11-6)
69 Clemson 0.70154 16-13 (9-8)
70 LSU 0.69266 18-12 (11-6)
71 Northwestern 0.68617 18-11 (6-10)
72 Georgia 0.68537 15-12 (8-8)
73 Arizona St 0.67431 14-15 (4-12)
74 Georgetown 0.67311 14-16 (7-10)
75 Mississippi 0.67258 18-11 (8-8)
76 NC State 0.66873 14-15 (4-12)
77 Monmouth NJ 0.66593 25-6 (17-3) MAAC
78 Princeton 0.66330 20-5 (10-1) Ivy League
79 UAB 0.65501 24-5 (14-2) Conference USA
80 Chattanooga 0.65354 26-5 (15-3) Southern
81 Davidson 0.65226 17-10 (9-7)
82 Arkansas 0.64853 15-14 (8-8)
83 Evansville 0.64442 23-8 (12-6)
84 Penn St 0.64156 15-14 (6-10)
85 Hofstra 0.63842 22-8 (14-4) Colonial Athletic
86 BYU 0.63787 22-9 (13-5)
87 Yale 0.63619 20-6 (11-1)
88 Boise St 0.63314 19-10 (10-6)
89 UNC Wilmington 0.63288 22-7 (14-4)
90 UC Irvine 0.63262 22-8 (11-3)
91 S Dakota St 0.63243 23-7 (12-4) Summit League
92 Oklahoma St 0.63058 12-18 (3-14)
93 Rhode Island 0.62940 16-13 (8-8)
94 Richmond 0.62548 15-14 (7-10)
95 Wake Forest 0.62338 11-19 (2-16)
96 William & Mary 0.61682 19-10 (11-7)
97 Nebraska 0.61679 14-16 (6-11)
98 Tennessee 0.61499 13-17 (6-11)
99 Mississippi St 0.61415 13-15 (6-10)
100 Fresno St 0.61284 20-9 (11-5)
101 Northern Iowa 0.61121
102 Memphis 0.61108
103 James Madison 0.60716
104 Grand Canyon 0.60494
105 Stony Brook 0.60438 23-6 (14-2) America East
106 Ohio 0.60383
107 Illinois 0.60211
108 Akron 0.60112 23-7 (12-5) Mid-American
109 TCU 0.59538
110 IPFW 0.59272
111 SF Austin 0.59271 23-5 (16-0) Southland
112 S Illinois 0.59122
113 UNLV 0.58898
114 Illinois St 0.58705
115 Long Beach St 0.58504
116 Oakland 0.58225
117 Nevada 0.58196
118 Auburn 0.57412
119 New Mexico 0.56920
120 Duquesne 0.56711
121 Santa Barbara 0.56581
122 Kent 0.56254
123 MTSU 0.55947
124 Belmont 0.55921 20-10 (12-4) Ohio Valley
125 UT Arlington 0.55786
126 W Kentucky 0.55745
127 New Mexico St 0.55465 21-9 (12-1) WAC
128 DePaul 0.55409
129 TAM C. Christi 0.55014
130 Towson 0.54779
131 Col Charleston 0.54540
132 Northeastern 0.54461
133 Iona 0.54455
134 Missouri 0.54047
135 Fordham 0.53821
136 Louisiana Tech 0.53799
137 ETSU 0.53767
138 Pepperdine 0.53727
139 Ball St 0.53572
140 Morehead St 0.53359
141 Utah St 0.53301
142 Columbia 0.53040
143 Buffalo 0.52737
144 Siena 0.52419
145 Massachusetts 0.52339
146 Albany NY 0.52280
147 NE Omaha 0.52172
148 N Illinois 0.52141
149 WI Milwaukee 0.51875
150 WI Green Bay 0.51850
151 Colorado St 0.51561
152 Weber St 0.51426 22-7 (14-2) Big Sky
153 C Michigan 0.51168
154 CS Bakersfield 0.51143
155 Elon 0.51110
156 Wright St 0.51047
157 Washington St 0.50931
158 E Michigan 0.50911
159 Minnesota 0.50777
160 Winthrop 0.50762 21-8 (13-5) Big South
161 Indiana St 0.50761
162 Tennessee Tech 0.50678
163 Toledo 0.50677
164 N Dakota St 0.50017
165 High Point 0.49963
166 ULM 0.49570
167 UCF 0.49475
168 Tennessee St 0.49421
169 Wyoming 0.49192
170 Oral Roberts 0.49039
171 Marshall 0.48927
172 UNC Asheville 0.48807
173 North Florida 0.48731 22-10 (10-4) Atlantic Sun
174 Old Dominion 0.48685
175 St Louis 0.48582
176 East Carolina 0.48439
177 Coastal Car 0.48127
178 George Mason 0.47816
179 Loyola-Chicago 0.47612
180 Mercer 0.47495
181 Detroit 0.47462
182 Vermont 0.47123
183 Missouri St 0.46941
184 ULL 0.46858
185 Montana 0.46803
186 Air Force 0.46618
187 Fairfield 0.46395
188 Georgia St 0.46136
189 Denver 0.46085
190 Murray St 0.46056
191 St John’s 0.46022
192 IUPUI 0.45939
193 W Michigan 0.45284
194 South Dakota 0.44740
195 Miami OH 0.44594
196 TN Martin 0.43917
197 FL Gulf Coast 0.43760
198 San Francisco 0.43662
199 Radford 0.43635
200 Furman 0.43577
201 Bucknell 0.43405 17-12 (14-4) Patriot League
202 W Carolina 0.42787
203 Bowling Green 0.42785
204 Wofford 0.42753
205 Tulane 0.42667
206 Boston College 0.42666
207 Wagner 0.42498 20-9 (13-5) Northeast
208 Loy Marymount 0.42324
209 UTEP 0.42134
210 La Salle 0.41927
211 NJIT 0.41590
212 South Florida 0.41580
213 Idaho 0.41548
214 E Kentucky 0.40757
215 Hampton 0.40707 18-9 (13-2) MEAC
216 Ga Southern 0.40453
217 Army 0.40320
218 Charlotte 0.40290
219 Navy 0.40182
220 Portland 0.40161
221 North Dakota 0.40071
222 Santa Clara 0.39283
223 South Alabama 0.39252
224 Boston Univ 0.39248
225 New Hampshire 0.39165
226 St Peter’s 0.39152
227 Gardner Webb 0.39097
228 Cal Poly SLO 0.39075
229 Lehigh 0.39065
230 Harvard 0.38873
231 UNC Greensboro 0.38718
232 TX Southern 0.38693 16-12 (15-1) SWAC
233 E Washington 0.38688
234 W Illinois 0.38054
235 Canisius 0.37987
236 Austin Peay 0.37112
237 UC Riverside 0.37004
238 Manhattan 0.36921
239 Penn 0.36561
240 Samford 0.36367
241 E Illinois 0.36080
242 Drexel 0.36012
243 Sam Houston St 0.35901
244 Rider 0.35655
245 Texas St 0.35545
246 UC Davis 0.35543
247 Delaware 0.35503
248 CS Northridge 0.35404
249 Rutgers 0.35250
250 Southern Univ 0.34996
251 S Carolina St 0.34782
252 San Diego 0.34771
253 Idaho St 0.34769
254 Incarnate Word 0.34568
255 Youngstown St 0.34314
256 Colgate 0.34234
257 Arkansas St 0.34162
258 Jackson St 0.34160
259 Pacific 0.34146
260 CS Fullerton 0.34030
261 Montana St 0.33984
262 San Jose St 0.33979
263 Houston Bap 0.33954
264 F Dickinson 0.33736
265 Rice 0.33546
266 Cleveland St 0.33541
267 Kennesaw 0.33540
268 Florida Intl 0.33314
269 Drake 0.33098
270 Norfolk St 0.33083
271 Seattle 0.33008
272 Liberty 0.32965
273 CS Sacramento 0.32861
274 Jacksonville 0.32765
275 Lipscomb 0.32764
276 Cornell 0.32246
277 North Texas 0.31662
278 Missouri KC 0.31530
279 N Kentucky 0.30968
280 Troy 0.30850
281 Appalachian St 0.30784
282 Portland St 0.30783
283 St Francis NY 0.30289
284 Utah Valley 0.29993
285 American Univ 0.29984
286 Dartmouth 0.29703
287 Long Island 0.29340
288 Campbell 0.29189
289 VMI 0.29046
290 Charleston So 0.28814
291 Bradley 0.28572
292 Southern Miss 0.28403
293 Quinnipiac 0.28243
294 Loyola MD 0.28071
295 St Francis PA 0.27897
296 Mt St Mary’s 0.27799
297 Savannah St 0.27781
298 Holy Cross 0.27697
299 MA Lowell 0.27622
300 FL Atlantic 0.27562
301 Citadel 0.27139
302 Alcorn St 0.26912
303 Stetson 0.26622
304 N Colorado 0.26521
305 Brown 0.26418
306 Bethune-Cookman 0.26289
307 Presbyterian 0.26079
308 Edwardsville 0.25640
309 SC Upstate 0.25595
310 Marist 0.25504
311 Sacred Heart 0.25316
312 Niagara 0.24705
313 Robert Morris 0.24224
314 Longwood 0.24132
315 Howard 0.23016
316 Binghamton 0.22810
317 Alabama St 0.22425
318 NC Central 0.22335
319 Abilene Chr 0.21935
320 Hartford 0.21512
321 IL Chicago 0.21503
322 Maine 0.21317
323 Lafayette 0.21257
324 MD E Shore 0.20574
325 Jacksonville St 0.20198
326 NC A&T 0.20139
327 Morgan St 0.19859
328 UMBC 0.19608
329 Alabama A&M 0.18156
330 Southern Utah 0.17214
331 UT San Antonio 0.17183
332 New Orleans 0.17110
333 Bryant 0.17025
334 UTRGV 0.16656
335 SE Louisiana 0.16596
336 Northern Arizona 0.16591
337 Lamar 0.16428
338 Cent Arkansas 0.16096
339 Coppin St 0.15541
340 Ark Pine Bluff 0.14626
341 McNeese St 0.13174
342 Delaware St 0.12731
343 Florida A&M 0.12703
344 Northwestern LA 0.12693
345 Prairie View 0.12560
346 MS Valley St 0.11854
347 Nicholls St 0.11811
348 SE Missouri St 0.08884
349 Central Conn 0.08434
350 Grambling 0.04650
351 Chicago St 0.01262
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