The Real 2017 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

With the NBA recently announcing the tie-breaking procedures, we finally obtain the draft orders up to the first three spots, decided by the lottery. That is, after the first three teams are selected, the remaining eleven spots of the draft lottery are in order of tie-broken winning percentages. If the Minnesota Timberwolves and the New…

NFL Playoff Probabilities (Week 17)

And with one week, many teams fall out of playoff contention… The Detroit Lions (9-6) are unable to stamp a Wild Card berth against the Dallas Cowboys (13-2) and find themselves with a real possibility of losing out to the Green Bay Packers (9-6), the Washington Redskins (8-6-1), and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7). The…

NFC Wild Card Playoff Probabilities: Week 16 (Part Two)

In our previous post, we identified the probabilities that each team had of winning their respective divisions. In this post, we saw how muddled a couple divisions were (NFC North and AFC South in particular). However, these divisions have nothing on the Wild Card races. In this second part, we race the Giants-Eagles game to…

NFL Playoff Probabilities: Week 16 (Part One)

After an incredible shake-up in the Week 15 standings, and a monumental collapse of BOTH my fantasy football teams, we find the landscape of the NFL playoffs ever so tightening heading into Week 16. For instance… Chiefs Take First from Raiders, Drop First to TITANS…  A week after grabbing first place of the AFC West…

How Safe Is Your Lead in the NBA?

A couple years ago, an article by Bill James on ‘How Safe a College Basketball Lead’ is given a point differential between two NCAA basketball teams was published. This article identified a method for estimating the number of seconds a lead is safe. The algorithm is given as follows: Take the differential and subtract three points. If…

Elimination Looming for the Minnesota Twins…

In our fifth to last installment of making the playoffs, we begin to shift gears and take serious looks at the races for the MLB playoffs over the final month of the season. As of the morning of August 28th, each team has approximately 33 games remaining. Technically, the Twins, Braves, Brewers, and Reds have been effectively…