How Safe Is Your Lead in the NBA?

A couple years ago, an article by Bill James on ‘How Safe a College Basketball Lead’ is given a point differential between two NCAA basketball teams was published. This article identified a method for estimating the number of seconds a lead is safe. The algorithm is given as follows: Take the differential and subtract three points. If…

Elimination Looming for the Minnesota Twins…

In our fifth to last installment of making the playoffs, we begin to shift gears and take serious looks at the races for the MLB playoffs over the final month of the season. As of the morning of August 28th, each team has approximately 33 games remaining. Technically, the Twins, Braves, Brewers, and Reds have been effectively…

MLB Playoff Predictions

Now that we took a look at the probability of making the World Series for each MLB playoff team, let’s take a look at the optimal path for navigating the playoffs. For this post, we will still assume the continuity correction model from the previous posts for making the playoffs and making the world series. One…